These are my final thoughts and strategies to consider for Sunday afternoon’s Ford EcoBoost 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway, as well as projected DraftKings FPTS for each driver. The chart below is explained but if you have any questions please don’t hesitate to contact me.
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- We have 400 miles to race on Sunday, which equals 267 laps around Homestead-Miami Speedway. That means there will be 66.75 FPTS for laps led up for grabs and probably around 120 FPTS for fastest laps (depending on how many cautions there are).
- Tire wear plays a big part of the race at Homestead. Drivers that can save their tires for later in the run will have an advantage if the race stays green. Additionally, this opens up the door for strategy moves during the race.
Projected FPTS at Homestead
The following chart takes into account the very basics: the starting position and the projected finish of each driver. The projected finishes are averaged from five different ranking systems, using both mathematical equations as well as personal rankings. This chart also includes the average projected base + laps led DraftKings FPTS as well as the dollar per FPT. I don’t try to project fastest laps–that’s up to you. You can click the headers below to sort the chart by that attribute. By default it is sorted by average projected FPTS.
| Driver | DraftKings Salary | Starting Position | Avg. Projected Finish | Proj Laps Led | Avg Proj Base + Laps Led FPTS | Dollar Per FPT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Harvick | $9,700 | 9 | 02.4 | 69 | 68.9 | $141 |
| Martin Truex Jr | $11,100 | 2 | 02.8 | 93 | 66.5 | $167 |
| Kyle Busch | $10,500 | 3 | 02.4 | 44 | 51.0 | $206 |
| Chase Elliott | $9,400 | 18 | 07.8 | 0 | 45.6 | $206 |
| Denny Hamlin | $8,900 | 1 | 07.6 | 33 | 45.5 | $196 |
| Brad Keselowski | $9,900 | 5 | 05.2 | 8 | 39.0 | $254 |
| Joey Logano | $9,200 | 19 | 05.0 | 0 | 39.0 | $236 |
| Jimmie Johnson | $9,600 | 22 | 06.8 | 2 | 38.5 | $249 |
| Matt Kenseth | $9,100 | 4 | 11.0 | 7 | 37.8 | $241 |
| Dale Earnhardt Jr | $7,800 | 24 | 11.4 | 0 | 37.6 | $207 |
| Kyle Larson | $9,500 | 7 | 08.6 | 11 | 36.2 | $263 |
| Kasey Kahne | $7,900 | 27 | 19.2 | 0 | 35.8 | $221 |
| Erik Jones | $8,100 | 14 | 08.6 | 0 | 34.8 | $233 |
| Ryan Blaney | $8,700 | 11 | 15.0 | 0 | 33.4 | $260 |
| Clint Bowyer | $8,500 | 16 | 10.6 | 0 | 32.8 | $259 |
| Jamie McMurray | $7,700 | 13 | 14.8 | 0 | 31.0 | $248 |
| Kurt Busch | $8,300 | 8 | 16.8 | 0 | 30.0 | $277 |
| Daniel Suarez | $7,000 | 10 | 17.8 | 0 | 29.6 | $236 |
| Austin Dillon | $7,400 | 17 | 12.4 | 0 | 28.6 | $259 |
| Ty Dillon | $6,900 | 32 | 13.0 | 0 | 28.4 | $243 |
| Ryan Newman | $7,600 | 21 | 19.6 | 0 | 27.4 | $277 |
| AJ Allmendinger | $6,300 | 26 | 15.4 | 0 | 23.2 | $272 |
| Aric Almirola | $6,200 | 20 | 23.8 | 0 | 23.2 | $267 |
| Chris Buescher | $6,700 | 29 | 23.6 | 0 | 23.0 | $291 |
| Michael McDowell | $5,800 | 23 | 27.8 | 0 | 22.2 | $261 |
| Danica Patrick | $6,500 | 25 | 27.6 | 0 | 21.8 | $298 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | $5,400 | 31 | 23.6 | 0 | 21.8 | $248 |
| David Ragan | $5,900 | 30 | 24.2 | 0 | 20.8 | $284 |
| Paul Menard | $6,100 | 15 | 22.2 | 0 | 20.6 | $296 |
| Trevor Bayne | $7,200 | 12 | 25.8 | 0 | 17.2 | $419 |
| Corey Lajoie | $5,600 | 34 | 28.8 | 0 | 16.4 | $341 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | $7,500 | 6 | 32.4 | 0 | 15.6 | $481 |
| Reed Sorenson | $5,000 | 37 | 36.2 | 0 | 13.0 | $385 |
| Landon Cassill | $5,200 | 28 | 35.2 | 0 | 11.6 | $448 |
| Cole Whitt | $4,900 | 33 | 33.4 | 0 | 10.6 | $462 |
| Ray Black Jr | $4,500 | 39 | 35.8 | 0 | 09.8 | $459 |
| Jeffrey Earnhardt | $4,800 | 36 | 32.6 | 0 | 09.2 | $522 |
| David Starr | $4,600 | 38 | 37.6 | 0 | 08.8 | $523 |
