DraftKings NASCAR Driver Point Projections: Richmond Toyota Owners 400

Great weather…check! No issues with qualifying inspection…check! Finally a normal Fantasy NASCAR weekend? Nope, try again. What happened in qualifying pretty much jumbled everything up for Saturday night’s Toyota Owners 400 at Richmond Raceway, as Kyle Busch tried to play the strategy card and only run two laps, but it backfired and he’ll start back in 32nd. Also, Brad Keselowski missed the second round of qualifying and he’ll roll off the grid from 28th. Going back to Busch, though, he’s going for three straight wins in Cup Series action, and the last seven Richmond winners have started inside the top 5. Will he be able to buck the trend?

Richmond Raceway is a fun track to watch the racing action on, but the races here are relatively short. We’re set to run 400 laps in Saturday night’s Toyota Owners 400, but that only equates to 300 miles. Still, that gives us 100 FPTS up for grabs in DraftKings as far as laps led, and probably around 170 FPTS for fastest laps, depending on the number of cautions. Of course, the shortness of the race leaves less room for error for these NASCAR teams–especially those starting near the back. You can expect a few long, green flag runs this weekend, so it’s going to take a car that is consistently fast to stay up front.

GPP Drivers I Love For The Toyota Owners 400

Martin Truex, Jr. ($10,500) – I’ll be the first one to admit that I am not very good at predicting ownership percentages in DraftKings. The drivers that I think are “sneaky” play options typically end up being in the top 10 when it comes to ownership percentage, and a lot of times the ones I think will be under-owned end up over-owned. So keep that in mind as I explain why I like Truex in GPPs this weekend. Honestly, I think Martin might not be in the top 5 of ownership on Saturday night, and for a couple reasons: 1.) A lot of people will be focusing on Kyle Busch and his 32nd-place starting spot, and if not Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick with that 10th-place starting spot–both of which are higher-priced than Truex, making it very difficult to own both. 2.) From a Fantasy NASCAR perspective, Truex has disappointed this season. He got that win at Fontana but that’s really his only “really good” race thus far in 2018. As far as average FPTS in DraftKings, he’s 8th-best this year with 41.4. Looking at this weekend, though, I love Truex and think he’s going to dominate the Toyota Owners 400. Let’s look at the last two night races here at Richmond: he has 172 fastest laps (next best is Hamlin with 74) and 391 laps led (more than double Hamlin’s 189). Also, the #78 Toyota has been a rocketship since the team unloaded on Friday, and that’s a bad sign for the competition, as this crew rarely makes any big adjustments on a race weekend. Unloading fast also helps on a weekend like this with a condensed schedule. Finally, Truex was happy in an interview after qualifying, which is very telling that he has a great car because he wears his emotions on his sleeve. He just might be on every single roster I put together for Saturday night, I like him that much this week. 

Clint Bowyer ($8,000) – The #14 Ford didn’t quite finish as high as I was expecting at Bristol last weekend, but Bowyer still came home with an 8th-place finish, which makes it five straight races where he has finished 11th or better–and you can expect him to make is six in a row this weekend. Clint never showed any muscle during the two practice sessions here on Friday (his 12th-best ten-lap average in Happy Hour was the strongest point) but he’s a good flat track racer, and we all know how well the Stewart-Haas Fords are running this year. Bowyer also had the 6th-best driver rating at Phoenix this year (he finished 6th as well), which is essentially a backwards, longer Richmond. Clint is a two-time winner at this track, and although he hasn’t finished top 10 here since the 2015 season, I expect that to change on Saturday night.

Daniel Suarez ($6,900) – Daniel Suarez has a knack for finishing well on the flat tracks, and although sometimes he may not seem like the best Fantasy NASCAR pick, you can’t argue with his finishes. His three career Cup Series starts at Phoenix have ended with 7th-, 18th-, and 8th-place finishes, and when you look at Richmond, he finished 12th in the first race last season and then 7th in the fall under the lights. Now, in none of those races did Suarez have as bad of a starting position as he does this weekend (26th), but the way I look at it, that’s just more place differential FPTS. Now, as far as reliability this season, Daniel has been pretty awful, but he’s still driving a Joe Gibbs Racing car and his teammates are bad fast this weekend. This #19 team turned it around with an 11th-place finish at Bristol last weekend, too, so hopefully they can continue to build on that momentum. Suarez didn’t show a lot during the practice sessions here on Friday but that should just keep him even further under the radar.

Is Kyle Busch Worth The Price?

Rowdy Busch is the highest-priced driver in DraftKings this weekend, and for good reason: the #18 team has been on absolute fire since February, with no finish worse than 3rd, and 87+ FPTS in DraftKings in four of the last five races. This weekend he’s going to roll off the grid from 32nd, which means the initial thought many players will have is, “give me those place differential points!” The #18 Toyota is still a solid top 5 car this weekend, and we all know Kyle Busch can come from the back to the front at any track. When it comes to DraftKings strategy, though, you really have to figure out how quickly you think he’s going to get up there, because, let’s be honest, he’s not going to put down many (if any) fastest laps in traffic. And once he gets to the front, will he be able to get to the point and lead? The $11,400 price tag is a hard one to spend simply on place differential points. With that being said, can you really go against Kyle Busch right now? Especially at a track where he has won at four times? I’ll probably be a bit underweight on Rowdy this weekend but he’ll still be on a decent percentage of my lineups for Richmond.

Salary Cap Relief at Richmond

Technically, Richmond Raceway is probably a short track, as it’s a 0.75-mile oval and relatively flat. But this place doesn’t race like a short track. The reason I’m bringing up this point is because it’s a lot easier to go with a punt play at a short track, simply because of the higher probability of wrecks. So while I’m not all in on a punt play like I was at Bristol, I still like Cole Whitt ($5,000) in Saturday night’s race. He’s starting back in 35th when the Toyota Owners 400 goes green, and Whitt has yet to finish worse than 28th this season. Hell, Corey LaJoie finished 25th at Bristol with this car last week! As far as Richmond goes, Whitt finished 27th in this race one year ago before winding up 33rd in the fall event.

As far as other low-priced drivers, A.J. Allmendinger ($6,200) is the obvious choice this weekend. He actually practiced pretty decent on Friday (17th- and 10th-fastest) but must’ve just missed it in qualifying because he’ll roll off the grid from 33rd. Allmendinger ran 21st at Phoenix earlier this year and that’s about where I expect him to finish here at Richmond on Saturday night as well. He has wound up between 20th and 26th in four of the last five races here. If you’re looking for a pivot off of Allmendinger, go with Kasey Kahne ($6,100). He gives you an extra $100 to work with and always ran decently well here at Richmond with better equipment. What I really like about Kahne, though, is that he’s wound up between 17th and 24th in all but two races this season (Daytona and Bristol), as well as the fact that Michael McDowell drove this car to 16th- and 12th-place finishes in the last two night races at Richmond. Kahne starts back in 29th and should be a decent option for place differential points because of that.

Driver Point Projections for the Toyota Owners 400

The following chart takes into account the very basics: the starting position and the projected finish of each driver. The projected finishes are averaged from five different ranking systems, using both mathematical equations as well as personal rankings. This chart also includes the average projected base + laps led + fastest laps DraftKings FPTS as well as the dollar per FPT. You can click the headers below to sort the chart by that attribute. By default it is sorted by average projected FPTS.