DraftKings Las Vegas 2 NASCAR Plays, Fades, and Driver Point Projections (South Point 400)

In the famous words of Jim Mora… Playoffs!? The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series has entered the final stretch of the 2018 season, as we now have ten straight weeks of racing to declare a champion. The Playoffs kick off this weekend at Las Vegas Motor Speedway with the South Point 400. Las Vegas is your typical 1.5-mile cookie cutter track, so I’d highly recommend analyzing the other races on this track type in 2018. For your convenience, I’ve put together a 1.5-mile Cheat Sheet that you can view by clicking here. One thing to kind of keep in your mind this weekend, though, is the timing of the race: we’ve never raced at Las Vegas this late in the season, and it’s significantly hotter now than it was when we were here in March. This track is going to be slick on Sunday, and it’s very possible that we see a higher amount of wrecks due to that.

Talkin’ DraftKings Strategy

Roster construction could get a little interesting this weekend, simply because we have a couple of drivers starting on the front row that aren’t super-high priced: Erik Jones ($8,700) on the pole and Joey Logano ($8,800) on the outside pole. Let’s start with Jones here. First off, I’m a big fan of Jones, mainly because he’s won me a lot of money in DraftKings this year. And we have seen what he can do when he gets out front at these 1.5-mile tracks (he led 64 laps at Texas this year despite starting back in 21st). However, from a strategy perspective, I actually like being underweight on Jones this Sunday. The first reason is because Erik Jones isn’t really a dominator. He’s grabbed just 3.4% of the fastest laps on this track type in 2018 while taking 3% of the laps led. His adjusted averages there aren’t much different, either, so those numbers aren’t getting weighed down by a bad race.

The second reason I don’t mind being underweight on Jones is because of how pole winners have fared here at Las Vegas Motor Speedway in the past; over the last ten years, the driver starting 1st at Las Vegas has an average finish of 11th and have led just a total of 8.6% of the laps. When you take out Brad Keselowski’s 89 laps led in the 2017 race–which is kind of an anomaly in this data set–the average finish drops to 11.7 and the laps led down to 5.9%. So with a pretty high ownership percentage projected for Jones, and a pretty good (in my mind, anyway) possibility for a disappointing DraftKings day, I’m perfectly fine with rolling the dice and staying away from the pole sitter on Sunday. I think the #20 Toyota will challenge for a top 5 but I don’t think Jones will dominate by any means.

Now, when it comes to Joey Logano ($8,800), I’ll probably be overweight on him this weekend, but I won’t be going “all in” by any means. Logano has led at least 25 laps in four of the last five Las Vegas races, and has put up pretty good numbers in the fastest lap category as well; in the last five races at this track, the #22 Ford has put up the following fastest laps: 7, 15, 40, 21, and 17. Penske Racing has put up two wins in a row coming into this South Point 400 weekend, maybe Logano will make it three in a row? It would be his first career win at this track.

Even with Jones and Logano on the front row, though, it’s hard to image one of “The Big Three” not putting up the most dominator points on Sunday. Kyle Busch ($12,300) and Kevin Harvick ($11,700) have been in a league of their own on the 1.5-mile tracks this season, collectively earning 35.8% of the fastest laps and 55.1% of the laps led so far. Both of those guys are pretty costly, though, so if you’re looking for some salary cap relief, give Ross Chastain ($5,300) a chance: his adjusted average finish is 25.8 on this track type in 2018, and he’ll start from back in 34th when the South Point 400 goes green on Sunday.

As far as DraftKings scoring goes this weekend, we’re looking at 267 scheduled laps for Sunday at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, which is a pretty standard event on a 1.5-mile track. There will be 66.75 FPTS up for grabs for laps led and around 115 FPTS for fastest laps, depending on the number and length of cautions.

GPP Drivers I Love For The Las Vegas South Point 400

Brad Keselowski ($9,600) – Two wins in a row…why not make it three? Brad Keselowski is a two-time winner here at Las Vegas Motor Speedway and is currently the most consistent performer whenever the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series stops here. Over the last six races here in the desert, Kez hasn’t finished worse than 7th and has led an average of 31 laps per race as well. Additionally, Keselowski has posted the 2nd-most fastest laps during that span, with an average of 29 per race (second only to Kevin Harvick’s 34 per race). Looking at the race here in March of this season, Keselowski started 8th and finished 6th, but still put up 14 fastest laps despite the somewhat-mediocre day. And it’s safe to say that the #2 Ford is faster now than it was back then. Brad will roll off the grid from 13th when the South Point 400 goes green on Sunday but should have no problem contending for a top 5. He has an adjusted average finish of 6.3 on the 1.5-mile tracks this year (5th-best in the series) and has grabbed 4.5% of the fastest laps on this track type (6th-best in the series).

Ryan Blaney ($9,200) – This week at Las Vegas, Ryan Blaney is right in that price range where a lot of people are going to go a different direction. Throw in a 6th-place starting spot (thus limited place differential potential) and it’s very possible that Blaney is in the lower 15% of DraftKings drivers in terms of ownership on Sunday. That gives you an advantage with a contrarian play. Blaney has finished between 5th and 7th in the last three Las Vegas races–which is notable because two of those were in Wood Brothers Racing equipment–and has also posted 9 fastest laps per race over that same span. Additionally, Ryan has grabbed 5.5% of the fastest laps on 1.5-mile tracks this season as a whole, and he was one of the most consistent drivers speed-wise during the practice sessions here on Saturday; the #21 Ford ranked 9th-best on the overall average speed chart in Practice #2 and then 6th-best on that same chart in Happy Hour. He’s got a good car for Sunday’s South Point 400 and could legitimately lead a portion of this race.

Paul Menard ($7,400) – Paul Menard’s price tag should keep plenty of people away this weekend, but with so much potential in the mid-$8,000s this week (and Martin Truex, Jr. ($9,900) being excessively under-priced), it’s more than possible that Paul is going to be in the winning lineup on Sunday. The #21 Ford will roll off the grid from 20th when the South Point 400 goes green but it really wouldn’t be surprising at all if Menard challenges for a top 10. He came home 9th here at Vegas back in March and has an adjusted average finish of 11.7 on the 1.5-mile tracks this season as well. Speed-wise, Menard didn’t blow anyone out of the water here on Saturday but that’s just another reason he’ll probably go low-owned. As mentioned before, Ryan Blaney finished 7th and 6th here at Las Vegas in this #21 Wood Brothers Ford in 2017 and 2016.

Regan Smith ($5,500) – It looks as though Bubba Wallace ($5,700) is going to be the chalk low-dollar play on Sunday, and I know for sure that I’ll have my fair sure of Bubba exposure. However, I don’t mind pivoting down to Regan Smith here. It’s hard to really get a feel for how Smith is going to perform since he’s only been in one race this year, but his 20th-place finish at Indianapolis last weekend (with zero practice time) is a very good sign for things to come. Additionally, Smith finished 25th here at Las Vegas back in 2016 with the #7 Tommy Baldwin Racing team, which is impressive as well. Overall, he has three top 20 finishes in seven starts at Las Vegas, and he’s starting 25th in the #95 Chevrolet this weekend. I won’t be going super heavy on Regan this weekend, but to limit my Wallace exposure, I’ll definitely be sliding Smith into his place. For what it’s worth, Kasey Kahne finished 19th in this #95 Chevrolet here at Las Vegas back in March.

Driver Point Projections for Las Vegas 2

The following chart takes into account the very basics: the starting position and the projected finish of each driver. The projected finishes are averaged from five different ranking systems, using both mathematical equations as well as personal rankings. This chart also includes the average projected base + laps led + fastest laps DraftKings FPTS as well as the dollar per FPT. You can click the headers below to sort the chart by that attribute. By default it is sorted by average projected FPTS.