We’re on to week #3 of the regular season in the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series with the Dixie Vodka 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Finally, a race with a decent number of laps! There are 267 laps scheduled for Sunday’s race at Homestead, which is essentially the combined number of laps for the last two races. You can expect only about 15 drivers (or less) to be on the lead lap at the end of this race, and we should know pretty early who has the best cars. Last year, Denny Hamlin dominated this race, and he’s on the pole yet again at Homestead this weekend. Can he do it again?
Lineup Construction: I don’t think it’s going to be necessary to dip down into the low-dollar drivers like Daniel Suarez ($5,500), Chris Buescher ($5,000) or Anthony Alfredo ($4,500) this weekend. You can make a really solid lineup focusing on all of the drivers from Cole Custer ($6,800) on up. This can obviously change if we have two high-dollar drivers both lead 100+ laps on Sunday, though, so if you’re entering a bunch of lineups, it’ll be best to have exposure with both types of lineup types. What you’re really looking for, though, is all five of your drivers to finish top 10 and then also have the winner/dominator in your lineup. I think that is possible with a balanced build style, because there’s a lot of value in that mid $8,000 to $10,000 range. Now let’s get to the picks and projections!!
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FanDuel DFS Picks for Homestead-Miami
Kyle Larson ($11,300) – There are going to be several high-owned drivers on FanDuel this weekend, and Kyle Larson is going to be one of them. But I feel like I’d be doing a disservice if I didn’t talk about one of the chalk plays. For the record, I do like pivoting off of Larson up to Ryan Blaney ($11,700) or down to Brad Keselowski ($10,000), but there’s also a very good chance that Larson will be in the optimal lineup, and I will have plenty of lineups with him on them. Homestead-Miami was long considered Larson’s best track on the schedule, and it was always “well, he’s going to win one soon.” Well now Larson is in the best equipment he’s ever been in, so he has no excuses this time. The Hendrick Motorsports cars were some of the best on “high-wear” race tracks last season, and as long as Larson doesn’t hit the wall on Sunday, there’s no doubt he’s going to be a legitimate top 5 contender.
Alex Bowman ($8,500) – The chalk in this price range is Tyler Reddick ($9,200), who starts back in 35th but has a legitimate top 5 chance on Sunday, as he was one of the most impressive in this race last season. But again, let me pivot. I can make a case for Christopher Bell ($8,700) here–you can see my thoughts on him by clicking here to read my Preview article–but let’s talk about Alex Bowman. He starts 13th, so there’s some place differential upside, but the important thing here is that he’s priced at only $8,500 on FanDuel. This guy ranked 5th in average running position on “high-wear” tracks last season and 6th in average finish. He finished a disappointing 18th here at Homestead in 2020 (a late unexpected pit stop killed him) but was 9th in the 2019 race. A top 7 finish out of Bowman on Sunday would make him an absolute steal at this salary.
Austin Dillon ($8,000) – I hate to give this guy any racing props, but I have to give credit where it’s due. Austin Dillon is solid at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Solid to the tune of a career average finish of 12.6, which is better than Kyle Larson, Joey Logano, Brad Keselowski, Kyle Busch, and Ryan Blaney (just to name a few). AD also really only has one bad race on his record here: a 25th in his first Cup start at the track. All six of his other starts have ended with him inside the top 14, including finishes of 7th and 8th in the last two Homestead races. Looking at the “high-wear” tracks last season, Dillon had the 10th-best average finish on them (12.5) and ranked 15th in average running position (16.2).
Dixie Vodka 400 FanDuel Driver Projections
The following chart takes into account the very basics: the starting position and the projected finish of each driver. The projected finishes are averaged from six different ranking systems. Also factored in are projected laps led for each driver. You can click the headers below to sort the chart by that attribute. By default it is sorted by average projected FPTS.
| Driver | FanDuel Salary | Avg Proj Pts | Starting Position | Dollar Per Pt |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Truex Jr. | $12,500 | 72.0 | 9 | $174 |
| Chase Elliott | $13,000 | 70.4 | 11 | $185 |
| Kevin Harvick | $14,000 | 69.5 | 4 | $201 |
| Kyle Busch | $12,200 | 69.5 | 24 | $176 |
| Kyle Larson | $11,300 | 68.7 | 17 | $164 |
| Denny Hamlin | $13,500 | 68.5 | 1 | $197 |
| Tyler Reddick | $9,200 | 67.6 | 35 | $136 |
| Ryan Blaney | $11,700 | 65.1 | 14 | $180 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | $7,200 | 62.4 | 37 | $115 |
| Alex Bowman | $8,500 | 62.0 | 13 | $137 |
| Brad Keselowski | $10,000 | 61.8 | 7 | $162 |
| William Byron | $9,500 | 61.1 | 31 | $155 |
| Austin Dillon | $8,000 | 59.2 | 22 | $135 |
| Joey Logano | $10,700 | 58.5 | 2 | $183 |
| Chase Briscoe | $7,000 | 56.4 | 30 | $124 |
| Aric Almirola | $7,800 | 55.7 | 16 | $140 |
| Christopher Bell | $8,700 | 55.5 | 3 | $157 |
| Kurt Busch | $8,000 | 54.8 | 5 | $146 |
| Ross Chastain | $6,200 | 53.8 | 32 | $115 |
| Bubba Wallace | $7,600 | 52.4 | 19 | $145 |
| Cole Custer | $6,800 | 48.6 | 10 | $140 |
| Ryan Newman | $6,000 | 48.0 | 23 | $125 |
| Erik Jones | $6,500 | 45.8 | 18 | $142 |
| Chris Buescher | $5,000 | 45.5 | 12 | $110 |
| Anthony Alfredo | $4,500 | 45.0 | 27 | $100 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | $6,000 | 44.8 | 15 | $134 |
| Daniel Suarez | $5,500 | 44.5 | 21 | $124 |
| Justin Haley | $4,000 | 40.8 | 20 | $98 |
| Corey LaJoie | $3,000 | 38.9 | 25 | $77 |
| Michael McDowell | $4,500 | 38.3 | 6 | $118 |
| Ryan Preece | $3,500 | 37.0 | 8 | $95 |
| Quin Houff | $2,000 | 35.5 | 38 | $56 |
| Josh Bilicki | $2,000 | 35.1 | 36 | $57 |
| James Davison | $3,000 | 33.3 | 29 | $90 |
| B.J. McLeod | $2,000 | 33.1 | 34 | $60 |
| Timmy Hill | $2,000 | 32.0 | 33 | $63 |
| Cody Ware | $2,500 | 31.8 | 26 | $79 |
| Garrett Smithley | $2,000 | 30.5 | 28 | $66 |
