We’re off to Dover, Delaware this weekend for the Drydene 400 at Dover International Speedway (a.k.a. “The Monster Mile) on Sunday. This will be race #13 of the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series regular season. Dover is a 1-mile race track and this is a 400-mile race so you can do the math there on how many laps are scheduled. Typically we see two main dominators in a Dover race, although last season, Kevin Harvick led 223 of the 311 laps to make it a “one dom” race, and in 2018, it was Harvick again who was really the only dominator, when he led 251 of the 404 laps (next highest in that race was Aric Almirola with 64). So, chances are we’re going to see two dominators here on Sunday in the Drydene 400, although with Martin Truex, Jr. on the pole, he could very well just continue his ass kicking ways from Darlington and roll that into another dominating performance at Dover.
Also, my algorithm predicted finishing order is a great tool to check out as well. Click here to look at that.
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Driver Loop Data Averages at Dover
Just like last week with the Darlington race, Dover is a pretty unique track. It’s a 1-mile venue but it really doesn’t race like a short track because of how banked it is. I’ve always thought of it as a shorter “cookie cutter” 1.5-mile track in a way. As far as the tires go, Goodyear is brining the same left sides that were used at Homestead earlier this year as well as Darlington last weekend. You can click here for Green Flag Speed from Homestead, and click here for the full Loop Data Box Score from Homestead. Also, you can click here for Green Flag Speed from Darlington, and click here for the full Loop Data Box Score from Darlington. They are running the 750 hp package again this week.
|Martin Truex Jr||2||02.0||05.4||143.85||119.9||43||88||592||622|
|Ricky Stenhouse Jr||2||23.5||22.3||142.50||62.1||16||1||258||526|
2017-2018 Driver Averages At Dover
|Martin Truex Jr||4||06.5||05.3||146.41||114.7||129||153||1545||1610|
|Dale Earnhardt Jr||2||09.0||10.6||146.02||91.8||12||0||606||806|
|Ricky Stenhouse Jr||4||20.5||15.9||145.03||66.3||21||34||604||1264|
|Darrell Wallace Jr||1||25.0||24.5||145.25||49.9||4||0||0||396|
Driver-by-Driver Breakdown Video
Now for the video breakdown! Be sure to go here and subscribe to my YouTube channel if you haven’t already.
Optimal Lineup According to Jordan’s Projections
The optimal FanDuel lineup for FanDuel according to my Projections is:
- Martin Truex, Jr.
- Kevin Harvick
- Joey Logano
- Aric Almirola
- Cole Custer
Confidence Rating = 7.7/10. This is a safe lineup to roll with in FanDuel, and you can interchange any of “The Big Three” (Truex, Hamlin, and Larson) up top depending on who you think the main dominator will be. At the bottom, you have Almirola and Custer and with them you’re just hoping they stay out of trouble and get those place differential points. Another potential lineup that I don’t mind having is: Kevin Harvick, Joey Logano, Brad Keselowski, Christopher Bell (or Ryan Blaney), and Aric Almirola.
FanDuel “Safe” DFS Picks for Dover (Cash Lineups)
Joey Logano ($10,500) – My projections really like Joey Logano this weekend. It also helps that my algorithm has him projected for a top 5 finish on Sunday. As far as track history goes, I’d consider Dover a “good but not great” venue for Joey Logano. In 24 career starts here, he has only notched four top 5 finishes, but he has 14 top 10s. Also, over the last five Dover races, Logano had finished between 3rd and 8th four times. At a salary of $10,500 on FanDuel, and with top 5 upside, JoLo makes for a great cash lineup play on Sunday. Plus, he’s been one of the best with this 750 hp package this season, with an average running position of 5.1 (3rd-best) and an average finish of 6.0 (4th-best).
Aric Almirola ($7,500) – I can understand why some NASCAR Fantasy players may want to shy away from Aric Almirola this weekend considering how awful his season has been. And, trust me, I get it. But at a $7,500 salary on FanDuel and starting back in 32nd, you really just need Almirola to not wreck on Sunday. Is that guaranteed to not happen? Absolutely not. Can we predict wrecks? Absolutely not. The fact of the matter is that Almirola will be a teens finisher on Sunday unless something whacky happens. He’s came home 17th or better in seven of his last eight starts here at Dover, and that’s about how he has ran in this 750 hp package this season as well: AA has an average running position of 16.2 and an average finish of 18.5.
FanDuel “Risky” DFS Picks for Dover (Tournament Lineups)
Ryan Blaney ($9,500) – I wouldn’t be surprised if this price range is where the FanDuel GPP is won or lost on Sunday, as we have pretty equal options here in Alex Bowman ($10,000), Christopher Bell ($9,000), and Ryan Blaney. With Bowman and Bell having higher place differential upside, as well as Bowman having three top 5s in his last four Dover starts, I think Blaney is going to be the lowest owned of the three, so I like pivoting to him. Blaney’s record here at Dover leaves a lot to be desired–two career top 10s and an average finish of 19.6–but he has the 4th-best average running position with the 750 hp package this season and the 8th-best average finish. My projections like Bell just a smidge better than Blaney, and they have Bowman with the highest upside. Strategy-wise, I like being overweight on Blaney and Bell and a little underweight on Bowman in tournaments.
Ross Chastain ($5,000) – There are three drivers that are most likely to dominate and/or win this race on Sunday, and they’re the three highest-priced drivers on the slate: Martin Truex, Jr. ($14,000), Kyle Larson ($13,500), and Denny Hamlin ($13,000). In order two fit two of those drivers into a decent lineup on Sunday, you’re going to need to dig down into the $5,000 range, and if I’m doing that, I’m rolling with Ross Chastain. This guy is the perfect example of consistency: he’s finished 19th or better in nine of the twelve races this year and currently has four straight finishes of 16th or better (and five straight of 17th or better). Chastain has never ran here at Dover in a competitive car but he did come home 2nd and 3rd in the two Xfinity races at this track last season, for what that’s worth.
Dover Drydene 400 FanDuel Driver Projections
The following chart takes into account the very basics: the starting position and the projected finish of each driver. The projected finishes are averaged from six different ranking systems. Also factored in are projected laps led for each driver. You can click the headers below to sort the chart by that attribute. By default it is sorted by average projected FPTS.
|Driver||FanDuel Salary||Avg Proj Pts||Starting Position||Ceiling Proj Pts||Dollar Per Pt|
|Martin Truex Jr.||$14,000||95.02||1||108.70||$147|
|Ricky Stenhouse Jr.||$6,300||62.40||20||68.80||$101|