We’re off to Dover, Delaware this weekend for the Drydene 400 at Dover International Speedway (a.k.a. “The Monster Mile) on Sunday. This will be race #13 of the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series regular season. Dover is a 1-mile race track and this is a 400-mile race so you can do the math there on how many laps are scheduled. Typically we see two main dominators in a Dover race, although last season, Kevin Harvick led 223 of the 311 laps to make it a “one dom” race, and in 2018, it was Harvick again who was really the only dominator, when he led 251 of the 404 laps (next highest in that race was Aric Almirola with 64). So, chances are we’re going to see two dominators here on Sunday in the Drydene 400, although with Martin Truex, Jr. on the pole, he could very well just continue his ass kicking ways from Darlington and roll that into another dominating performance at Dover.

Also, my algorithm predicted finishing order is a great tool to check out as well. Click here to look at that.

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Driver Loop Data Averages at Dover

Kevin Harvick Burnout Dover Fantasy NASCAR FanDuel DraftKings
Photo Credit: Robert Laberge/Getty Images

Just like last week with the Darlington race, Dover is a pretty unique track. It’s a 1-mile venue but it really doesn’t race like a short track because of how banked it is. I’ve always thought of it as a shorter “cookie cutter” 1.5-mile track in a way. As far as the tires go, Goodyear is brining the same left sides that were used at Homestead earlier this year as well as Darlington last weekend. You can click here for Green Flag Speed from Homestead, and click here for the full Loop Data Box Score from Homestead. Also, you can click here for Green Flag Speed from Darlington, and click here for the full Loop Data Box Score from Darlington. They are running the 750 hp package again this week.

Driver
Starts
Finish
ARP
GFS
DR
FL
LL
T15
Total Laps
Martin Truex Jr202.005.4143.85119.94388592622
Kevin Harvick202.506.0144.06128.7124223576622
Joey Logano207.005.6143.54110.42315616622
Kyle Busch207.013.1143.1592.4253364622
Brad Keselowski208.507.3143.27102.289620622
Denny Hamlin210.007.1143.81117.273115531622
Cole Custer210.512.0143.2189.250529622
Clint Bowyer211.007.9143.4198.7130603622
Austin Dillon212.011.6143.1390.72649505621
Aric Almirola212.013.4143.3093.03022400620
Ryan Blaney213.009.3143.0994.41437569621
Alex Bowman213.016.9142.5879.7210299620
Chris Buescher215.016.5142.4075.640209621
Tyler Reddick215.514.7142.7978.990347621
William Byron216.012.8142.6988.4121377619
Erik Jones217.018.3142.5270.920257621
Matt DiBenedetto218.514.4142.2373.5628241620
Ryan Newman221.520.6142.2766.04072619
Chase Elliott222.011.8144.0964.94127228317
Ricky Stenhouse Jr223.522.3142.5062.1161258526
Bubba Wallace224.020.7141.6457.90026619
Christopher Bell224.522.2141.9860.34070619
Ryan Preece225.523.4141.9457.50011619
Michael McDowell225.524.3141.6654.83042618
Corey LaJoie226.026.3141.5450.41011618
Kurt Busch226.512.8142.3654.400273317
Daniel Suarez229.028.0140.7646.8003615
Josh Bilicki232.033.4138.4537.4602601
Quin Houff233.534.4137.4333.8000600
BJ McLeod234.532.8138.6037.7002469
Timmy Hill235.035.2136.7431.1300550
Garrett Smithley236.036.2136.4729.5200537

2017-2018 Driver Averages At Dover

Driver
Starts
Finish
ARP
GFS
DR
FL
LL
T15
Total Laps
Chase Elliott405.007.9145.88107.18014915521610
Martin Truex Jr406.505.3146.41114.712915315451610
Daniel Suarez406.811.4145.5492.211012941610
Kyle Larson407.309.4146.01108.814837812291610
Kevin Harvick408.306.4146.39122.228948714191609
Dale Earnhardt Jr209.010.6146.0291.8120606806
Jimmie Johnson412.314.7145.8991.3851211501593
Erik Jones412.312.9145.5985.321011481608
Jamie McMurray412.514.2145.2679.11428191607
Denny Hamlin413.011.5145.5287.432012761584
Joey Logano414.013.5145.4485.114710801605
Danica Patrick214.020.3144.6063.500143805
Matt Kenseth314.715.0145.1783.83306021208
Kyle Busch415.008.6146.17104.21207013761480
Austin Dillon415.318.3144.9370.42805381604
Kasey Kahne316.014.3145.9176.21606851202
Aric Almirola316.315.1145.2580.939646841200
William Byron216.519.0144.2868.070221801
Ryan Newman416.819.2144.9571.21615061585
Kurt Busch416.812.0145.7381.44509941295
Brad Keselowski417.007.1146.2291.96515512481270
Clint Bowyer418.513.1145.9992.5694111371579
Ryan Blaney418.514.1145.3683.718010641574
Ricky Stenhouse Jr420.515.9145.0366.321346041264
Trevor Bayne321.320.4145.1960.5101961196
Ty Dillon422.323.8144.0657.08271561595
AJ Allmendinger422.322.8144.1357.350801596
Bubba Wallace123.025.8141.6551.6600399
Michael McDowell423.525.4143.7250.804201596
Chris Buescher424.524.3143.9753.410491593
Darrell Wallace Jr125.024.5145.2549.9400396
Alex Bowman225.516.7145.4279.43626412793
David Ragan425.525.8143.3947.560551584
Ryan Sieg126.033.3141.9833.7000400
Cole Whitt227.028.9142.8941.9006794
Gray Gaulding227.029.5141.7337.2006788
Paul Menard427.324.4144.2356.41001331496
Regan Smith227.522.9142.8155.53084730
Matt DiBenedetto429.030.0143.2241.712031579
Ross Chastain430.831.2142.2939.35041458
Jeffrey Earnhardt331.733.1139.5633.50001162
JJ Yeley132.033.6139.7434.8000392
Landon Cassill432.331.1141.8437.900181426
Brett Moffitt133.034.5143.0134.7000391
Corey Lajoie334.033.6141.4131.7000803
BJ McLeod235.036.0138.5629.0000761
Cody Ware235.534.5140.3727.6001527
Reed Sorenson235.534.5141.2429.5001544
Timmy Hill335.732.8140.8527.7006472
Derrike Cope137.036.1140.9324.8000144
Harrison Rhodes138.036.9137.7626.3000308

Driver-by-Driver Breakdown Video

Now for the video breakdown! Be sure to go here and subscribe to my YouTube channel if you haven’t already.

Optimal Lineup According to Jordan’s Projections

The optimal FanDuel lineup for FanDuel according to my Projections is:

  • Martin Truex, Jr.
  • Kevin Harvick
  • Joey Logano
  • Aric Almirola
  • Cole Custer

Confidence Rating = 7.7/10. This is a safe lineup to roll with in FanDuel, and you can interchange any of “The Big Three” (Truex, Hamlin, and Larson) up top depending on who you think the main dominator will be. At the bottom, you have Almirola and Custer and with them you’re just hoping they stay out of trouble and get those place differential points. Another potential lineup that I don’t mind having is: Kevin Harvick, Joey Logano, Brad Keselowski, Christopher Bell (or Ryan Blaney), and Aric Almirola.

FanDuel “Safe” DFS Picks for Dover (Cash Lineups)

Las Vegas Motor Speedway practice with Almirola leading Logano and Keselowski
Photo Credit: Sarah Crabill/Getty Images

Joey Logano ($10,500) – My projections really like Joey Logano this weekend. It also helps that my algorithm has him projected for a top 5 finish on Sunday. As far as track history goes, I’d consider Dover a “good but not great” venue for Joey Logano. In 24 career starts here, he has only notched four top 5 finishes, but he has 14 top 10s. Also, over the last five Dover races, Logano had finished between 3rd and 8th four times. At a salary of $10,500 on FanDuel, and with top 5 upside, JoLo makes for a great cash lineup play on Sunday. Plus, he’s been one of the best with this 750 hp package this season, with an average running position of 5.1 (3rd-best) and an average finish of 6.0 (4th-best).

Aric Almirola ($7,500) – I can understand why some NASCAR Fantasy players may want to shy away from Aric Almirola this weekend considering how awful his season has been. And, trust me, I get it. But at a $7,500 salary on FanDuel and starting back in 32nd, you really just need Almirola to not wreck on Sunday. Is that guaranteed to not happen? Absolutely not. Can we predict wrecks? Absolutely not. The fact of the matter is that Almirola will be a teens finisher on Sunday unless something whacky happens. He’s came home 17th or better in seven of his last eight starts here at Dover, and that’s about how he has ran in this 750 hp package this season as well: AA has an average running position of 16.2 and an average finish of 18.5.

FanDuel “Risky” DFS Picks for Dover (Tournament Lineups)

Ryan Blaney racing at Dover 2019
Photo Credit: Jeff Zelevansky/Getty Images

Ryan Blaney ($9,500) – I wouldn’t be surprised if this price range is where the FanDuel GPP is won or lost on Sunday, as we have pretty equal options here in Alex Bowman ($10,000), Christopher Bell ($9,000), and Ryan Blaney. With Bowman and Bell having higher place differential upside, as well as Bowman having three top 5s in his last four Dover starts, I think Blaney is going to be the lowest owned of the three, so I like pivoting to him. Blaney’s record here at Dover leaves a lot to be desired–two career top 10s and an average finish of 19.6–but he has the 4th-best average running position with the 750 hp package this season and the 8th-best average finish. My projections like Bell just a smidge better than Blaney, and they have Bowman with the highest upside. Strategy-wise, I like being overweight on Blaney and Bell and a little underweight on Bowman in tournaments.

Ross Chastain ($5,000) – There are three drivers that are most likely to dominate and/or win this race on Sunday, and they’re the three highest-priced drivers on the slate: Martin Truex, Jr. ($14,000), Kyle Larson ($13,500), and Denny Hamlin ($13,000). In order two fit two of those drivers into a decent lineup on Sunday, you’re going to need to dig down into the $5,000 range, and if I’m doing that, I’m rolling with Ross Chastain. This guy is the perfect example of consistency: he’s finished 19th or better in nine of the twelve races this year and currently has four straight finishes of 16th or better (and five straight of 17th or better). Chastain has never ran here at Dover in a competitive car but he did come home 2nd and 3rd in the two Xfinity races at this track last season, for what that’s worth.

Dover Drydene 400 FanDuel Driver Projections

The following chart takes into account the very basics: the starting position and the projected finish of each driver. The projected finishes are averaged from six different ranking systems. Also factored in are projected laps led for each driver. You can click the headers below to sort the chart by that attribute. By default it is sorted by average projected FPTS.

DriverFanDuel SalaryAvg Proj PtsStarting PositionCeiling Proj PtsDollar Per Pt
Martin Truex Jr.$14,00095.021108.70$147
Kyle Larson$13,50083.65499.90$161
Denny Hamlin$13,00082.00293.10$159
Kevin Harvick$11,50079.72590.20$144
Kyle Busch$12,00077.98690.00$154
Joey Logano$10,50077.92988.90$135
Brad Keselowski$11,00077.351585.40$142
Chase Elliott$12,50077.25882.60$162
Aric Almirola$7,50075.503283.60$99
Christopher Bell$9,00073.001179.00$123
Ryan Blaney$9,50072.80780.30$130
William Byron$10,30072.65379.00$142
Kurt Busch$8,50072.002880.40$118
Alex Bowman$10,00070.501682.20$142
Matt DiBenedetto$8,00068.751873.60$116
Austin Dillon$8,30068.001480.10$122
Cole Custer$6,50067.903079.90$96
Tyler Reddick$7,80067.501274.90$116
Daniel Suarez$6,70065.502482.70$102
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.$6,30062.402068.80$101
Ross Chastain$5,00061.901969.80$81
Bubba Wallace$5,20061.652268.30$84
Chase Briscoe$5,50061.151776.20$90
Chris Buescher$7,00061.001071.50$115
Erik Jones$6,20060.652367.40$102
Ryan Newman$5,80058.151365.50$100
Ryan Preece$4,50054.202557.70$83
Michael McDowell$6,00054.052160.10$111
Corey LaJoie$3,00053.452658.20$56
Anthony Alfredo$4,00052.952758.60$76
Josh Bilicki$2,50048.753750.00$51
B.J. McLeod$2,00048.103150.50$42
Quin Houff$2,50047.003550.50$53
Cody Ware$2,50045.403448.50$55
James Davison$2,00045.153351.00$44
Garrett Smithley$2,00044.803651.00$45
Justin Haley$3,50000.00000.00$0
As someone who has always been obsessed with numbers, Fantasy NASCAR has been the perfect fit with me. I pride myself on the quality of my analysis for each race, and am glad that I have been able to help others along the way. I've been a serious Fantasy NASCAR player for over 10 years now, and I'm just getting started.