“The Season of Probably Too Many Road Course Races” continues on this weekend as the Toyota / Save Mart 350 is on Sunday at Sonoma Raceway. This track is one of the venues that most NASCAR fans think of when “road course” is mentioned; Sonoma and Watkins Glen used to be the only two road course tracks that the Cup Series raced at before all of these Rovals and other road course tracks were added into the mix. What will be interesting to see is if the drivers that seemed to improve on the Roval courses can match that level of competitiveness here at Sonoma, or if the “original” good road course racers (*cough* Kyle Busch *cough*) can get back to their expected level of performance.
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How the algorithm works: There are quite a few statistics that go into the Power Index formula, including recent performance both overall and at this week’s track specifically, similar track performance, projected strength of the car, practice speeds (when applicable), starting position, and a few other variables.
Before We Get To The Algorithm Results…Thoughts On A Couple Drivers
Chris Buescher – It’s not very often that you see Chris Buescher ranked higher than Brad Keselowski in the Algorithm Predicted Finishing Order, but here we are. I’ll admit, this one jumps out to me as “probably over-valued” here, but at the same time, I could see Buescher challenging for a top 10 finish on Sunday. Ever since he left Front Row Motorsports back in 2017, Buescher has been a top 20 finisher in every single road course race–all 13 of them (if you count this year’s Busch Clash). That includes finishes of 16th, 12th, and 19th here at Sonoma in his last three starts. Additionally, Buescher came home 11th in the Daytona Road Course Race this season and 13th at Circuit of the Americas a couple of weeks ago. Momentum-wise, this #17 team has three top 10s in the last five Cup Series races and only three results worse than 19th all season (Daytona, Talladega, and Richmond).
Erik Jones – The algorithm has Erik Jones predicted to finish 17th on Sunday, which is actually pretty high considering he has an average result of 21.1 this season and only three top 15s. However, road courses are places where a good driver just needs above average equipment to run well, and that’s exactly what Erik Jones has here. During the first part of his Cup Series career, when he was with Furniture Row and then Joe Gibbs Racing, Jones grabbed seven top 11 finishes in ten road course starts, and this season (in his Richard Petty Motorsports car), he’s finished 8th in the Busch Clash race, 14th in the Daytona Road Course race, and 16th at Circuit of the Americas. That’s a solid sleeper pick if you ask me.
Sonoma Toyota / Save Mart 350 Algorithm Predicted Finishing Order
| Rank | Driver | Power Index |
| 1. | Elliott, Chase | 37.38 |
| 2. | Truex, Jr., Martin | 33.79 |
| 3. | Busch, Kyle | 32.78 |
| 4. | Hamlin, Denny | 30.04 |
| 5. | Byron, William | 29.79 |
| 6. | Larson, Kyle | 29.57 |
| 7. | Bowman, Alex | 28.69 |
| 8. | Harvick, Kevin | 26.43 |
| 9. | Logano, Joey | 26.30 |
| 10. | Bell, Christopher | 24.51 |
| 11. | Reddick, Tyler | 20.32 |
| 12. | Blaney, Ryan | 18.79 |
| 13. | Buescher, Chris | 16.65 |
| 14. | Keselowski, Brad | 15.64 |
| 15. | Busch, Kurt | 14.96 |
| 16. | Jones, Erik | 10.85 |
| 17. | McDowell, Michael | 04.14 |
| 18. | Dillon, Austin | 03.58 |
| 19. | Custer, Cole | -01.48 |
| 20. | Briscoe, Chase | -02.23 |
| 21. | DiBenedetto, Matt | -03.07 |
| 22. | Stenhouse, Jr., Ricky | -05.85 |
| 23. | Almirola, Aric | -14.44 |
| 24. | Preece, Ryan | -16.10 |
| 25. | Suarez, Daniel | -17.07 |
| 26. | Chastain, Ross | -21.36 |
| 27. | Newman, Ryan | -21.84 |
| 28. | Wallace, Bubba | -23.41 |
| 29. | LaJoie, Corey | -26.14 |
| 30. | Alfredo, Anthony | -26.18 |
| 31. | Rhodes, Ben | -28.47 |
| 32. | Davison, James | -31.49 |
| 33. | Heckert, Scott | -33.36 |
| 34. | Ware, Cody | -34.96 |
| 35. | Bilicki, Josh | -35.78 |
| 36. | Smithley, Garrett | -37.20 |
| 37. | Houff, Quin | -39.81 |
