UPDATE: Because we were able to see a practice session before locking our roster in, we are going with the following changes: in the A Group we are sticking with Jimmie Johnson but we’re going to switch Kyle Busch for Brad Keselowski. Johnson’s record here is far too superior to pass up. We’re rolling with Keselowski to try and get some qualifying points, plus he probably should have won the fall race here last season. In the B Group, we are sticking with Austin Dillon first and foremost. We’re going to throw Greg Biffle on there, though. He was 8th on the speed chart in Thursday’s practice and finished 13th at Atlanta earlier this year. Plus he’s a two-time winner here at Texas. We’re also going to roll with Martin Truex, Jr. because we still have 8 starts remaining and he was the fastest in practice on Thursday. Additionally, he had one of the best cars at Atlanta and finished top 10 in both Texas races last season. Our final choice in the B Group is going to be Kasey Kahne, who has won at Texas before and has finished 11th or better in four of the last six races here. In the C Group we’re going to go into start save mode and roll with Brian Vickers and Ty Dillon. Chances are Chase Elliott is going to be a great pick here Saturday night, though, so we can’t fault you for taking him.
[edited 4/7/16 at 9:00 pm ET]
We have a quick turnaround this week as the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series heads to Texas Motor Speedway for the Duck Commander 500 on Saturday night. This is the first night race of the season, and it should be noted that the event will start in the late afternoon and transition into the night in the Lone Star State–which means we should see the track go through some changes as the race goes on. Texas is a 1.5-mile quad oval race track that is somewhat similar to Atlanta. The tires wear pretty quickly here and there are multiple grooves around the race track, which means we should see some excellent racing here on Saturday night.
Yahoo! A Group Picks for Texas
Jimmie Johnson (9 starts remaining) – If you have an argument for leaving Jimmie Johnson off of your Yahoo! team this week, we’d like to hear it. The comments section is open on this post so go ahead and fire away. Let’s just look at the last seven Texas races, as that will be enough to put JJ as the #1 A Group driver this week. Last fall: Jimmie Johnson won. Last spring: Jimmie Johnson won. Fall 2014 race: Jimmie Johnson won. Fall 2013 race: Jimmie Johnson won. Fall 2012 race: Jimmie Johnson won. The race missing from the previous list of Jimmie Johnson wins are spring 2014 (Johnson had early damage because he started mid-pick) and spring 2013 (he finished 6th). Not to mention JJ won at Atlanta earlier this year. Next!
Kyle Busch (8 starts remaining) – Rowdy’s record at Texas Motor Speedway isn’t as impressive as Jimmie Johnson’s, but it’s up there. Over Kyle’s last six starts at this track, he has racked up five top 5 finishes with a visit to victory lane in 2013. This #18 team is fresh off of their win at Martinsville, too, and has finished inside the top 5 in all but one of the races thus far in 2016. You could make a case for a few other drivers in the A Group (Brad Keselowski, Kevin Harvick), but going with Jimmie Johnson and Kyle Busch is about as safe and as strong as you can get.
Yahoo! B Group Picks for Texas
Austin Dillon (6 starts remaining) – We’re really hoping that Austin Dillon kind of fizzles out halfway through the season because we’re already down to six starts left and we’re more than willing to start him here on Saturday. This #3 team is fresh off their second top 5 finish of the season at Martinsville and coming into a track that Austin posted a career-best finish of 11th at last fall. He also ended up finishing 11th at Atlanta earlier this year after starting 8th. If using up a guy like Austin Dillon this early in the season allows us to conserve starts of Carl Edwards and Martin Truex, Jr., we’re more than glad to run the #3 car for the time being.
Carl Edwards (7 starts remaining) – This #19 team is really knocking on the door of a win right now and we’re not going to miss it. If you’ve been following these posts for the whole season, you know that we like to keep one “backup” option (usually either Edwards or Truex) in case the rest of our B Group drivers are struggling. This week, we initially had Martin Truex, Jr. in that slot, but we just don’t like the mojo of that #78 team right now. Can you believe that they haven’t finished better than 11th since Atlanta in late February? Meanwhile, Carl Edwards has been the best driver in the Sprint Cup Series over the last 24 races, and has finished 100% of the laps over that span as well. And we saw last week that they can turn a terrible day in to a great one, as Carl finished 6th at Martinsville.
Jamie McMurray (8 starts remaining) – We’re willing to give Jamie McMurray a mulligan this week, but damn that performance at Martinsville was piss poor. As we always say, though, you have to have a short memory in this Fantasy NASCAR business. Jamie Mac is currently on a three-race streak of top 10 finishes here at Texas Motor Speedway and he ended up 6th in this event one year ago. He also qualified 2nd at Atlanta earlier this year, and although he finished 21st in that race, it’s nice to know that this #1 Chevrolet at least had the speed to lay down a fast lap.
Ryan Newman (8 starts remaining) – This is the spot in our roster that we’re not 100% sure of. As of this posting, we have Ryan Newman filling out our B Group, but there are plenty of other options available as well. The fact of the matter is that there’s really no clear-cut driver that we have 100% confidence in in the B Group (besides Edwards, Truex, and Dillon). The reason that we might be going with Newman this weekend is because he has qualified inside the top 5 in three of the last five races this year (including Atlanta) and has finished 14th or better in four of the six Cup events ran in 2016 thus far.
Yahoo! C Group Picks for Texas
The picks for the C Group for the race at Texas is similar to every other week thus far: we’re going with the driver of the #14 Chevrolet and one of the rookies. Brian Vickers will be in the #14 car once again this weekend. The driver we’re going to pair along with him is Chase Elliott for a couple of reasons: one, he finished 8th at Atlanta earlier this season, and two, the #24 Chevrolet ran top 10 in both Texas races last season with Jeff Gordon behind the wheel. So, our C Group picks for Texas: Chase Elliott and Brian Vickers.
Will you change any of this after watching practice on Thursday? And will we be aware of it if you do?
Hey Dan,
Yes, chances are there might be a change or two after Thursday, and I will come back and add an edit to this post if I do make any changes.
Thanks!
Jordan
Mr. McAbee
If you had to rank the A group going in to lockdown tonight where eould the 4 car rank? And how does the 19 rank in the B group?
Wahsee
Sorry, didn’t see your comment in time to respond last night. But I would have had Harvick 3rd in A Group and Edwards 1st or 2nd in the B Group.