One thing is for sure this weekend at Richmond International Raceway, and that is this: not much is certain. We pretty much know who the sixteen Chase drivers are going to be (those on the outside looking in are going to need a win) but as far as the overall race goes, there’s not really a clear favorite. Both practice sessions on Friday were held during the middle of the day, and that’s great but the race isn’t until Saturday night. Also, this is a short track, so simply looking at lap times doesn’t do a whole lot. We barely even looked at individual laps, instead focusing on the ten-lap averages in both sessions. There’s going to be comers and goers here on Saturday night and probably quite a few lap leaders as well.
Our official Fantasy Racing Online Yahoo! Fantasy Auto Racing team escaped Darlington with a 320-point week and we’re going to take that and run. With one week left in the summer segment, we’re up to the 78th percentile overall and looking four our fourth 300+ point week in the last four races here at Richmond on Saturday night.
Yahoo! A Group Pick and Final Rankings for Richmond 2
This is a pretty easy choice for us. Our two A Group drivers are Matt Kenseth and Kevin Harvick this weekend, and they qualified 3rd and 19th, respectively. And while we do think Kevin Harvick could actually challenge for the win here on Saturday night, we have to go with Matt Kenseth as our starter, and for a couple of reasons. All of the Joe Gibbs Racing Toyotas have speed this weekend, and chances are the most laps led title is going to come down to Kenseth or pole sitter Denny Hamlin. The #20 Toyota was slightly better in Happy Hour on the ten-lap average chart, though, and let’s not forget that Kenseth absolutely dominated this race one year ago. We’ll gladly ride into the Chase with 5 Kevin Harvick starts left and use one of our 7 Matt Kenseth starts here on Saturday night.
We really don’t see a reason to go any lower than the top 4 drivers listed below. Denny Hamlin is on the pole and has a great car–as mentioned before–and you can never count out Kyle Busch at this race track. Chances are this race is going to come down to one of the Joe Gibbs Racing Toyotas unless Kevin Harvick can get track position late. We have the Penske Fords of Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski inside the top 10 for this year’s Federated Auto Parts 400, but something just seems off with both of them this weekend. It’s not very often that both of those cars qualifying outside of the top 10, and Logano looked terrible during the practice sessions on Friday. If there’s any team that can make a car great during the actual race, though, it’s that #22 bunch.
Final A Group Rankings: (1) Denny Hamlin, (2) Matt Kenseth, (3) Kevin Harvick, (4) Kyle Busch, (5) Joey Logano, (6) Brad Keselowski, (7) Jimmie Johnson, (8) Kurt Busch
Yahoo! B Group Picks and Final Rankings for Richmond 2
Well, qualifying couldn’t have went much better for us this weekend, as our goal was to start Jamie McMurray and Kasey Kahne in the B Group at Richmond. They qualified 4th and 7th, and while there’s a little bit of risk in starting both of them, we’re willing do so. The thing with Jamie McMurray is that he is going to be points racing, so the #1 team is going to have a very conservative game plan here on Saturday night. That could work out to a top 10 finish–which the #1 Chevrolet is plenty capable of speed-wise–but more likely than not it will be a top 15. Meanwhile, Kasey Kahne is going to pull out all the stops to try and win and get into this year’s Chase, and that can either be very good or very bad for us. We’ll cross our fingers and hope that #5 team has something go right for them for the first time in a while. So those two drivers (Jamie McMurray and Kasey Kahne) will for sure be our starters on Saturday night.
As far as our two benched B Group drivers, we will have Martin Truex, Jr. and Ryan Newman taking up those spots. It’s very hard to sit Truex this weekend because there were quite a few people in the garage pointing to the #78 Toyota during Happy Hour on Friday, but we’re going to save our 4 starts left with him and hope he doesn’t go out there and win another race. It’s worth noting that Truex has just one top 5 finish in twenty-one career starts here at Richmond, but he definitely has a car capable of getting a second one here this weekend. Ryan Newman is our other B Group driver and while he should be good for a finish between 10th and 15th, we didn’t quite see the speed out of the #31 Chevrolet on Friday to justify a start. He’s another one of those drivers that probably needs a win to get into this year’s Chase.
Kyle Larson starts on the outside pole this weekend, and while that #42 team has been on fire as of late, we honestly barely have him inside of the top 10 heading into Saturday night’s race. The thing is, Larson is a lot better at putting one fast lap down here at Richmond than he is at being fast for a race run, and that’s going to hurt him on Saturday. He’s finished between 11th and 16th in all five career starts here, though. Austin Dillon is one guy we’ve had our eye on this week as a sleeper, and he didn’t disappoint in qualifying, ending up 8th. Phoenix is somewhat similar to Richmond and Austin ended up 9th there back in March, so he could possibly sneak in a top 10 finish here on Saturday night. The #3 Chevrolet had top 15 speed in Happy Hour on Friday and don’t forget that Dillon has ended up 12th or better in four of the last six Sprint Cup races overall. Another sleeper this week is Trevor Bayne, who posted a career-best finish of 17th here back in April and sounded really happy with his #6 Ford on Friday. He qualified 18th for this year’s Federated Auto Parts 400 and was 14th on the ten-lap average chart in Happy Hour.
Final B Group Rankings: (1) Carl Edwards, (2) Martin Truex, Jr. (3) Kyle Larson, (4) Jamie McMurray, (5) Kasey Kahne, (6) Ryan Newman, (7) Austin Dillon, (8) Tony Stewart, (9) Trevor Bayne, (10) A.J. Allmendinger, (11) Ricky Stenhouse, Jr., (12) Greg Biffle, (13) Aric Almirola, (14) Paul Menard, (15) Danica Patrick, (16) Casey Mears, (17) Clint Bowyer
Yahoo! C Group Pick and Final Rankings for Richmond 2
Chase Elliott wound up qualifying 34th for Saturday night’s Federated Auto Parts 400, and unfortunately for us, Yahoo! Fantasy Auto Racing doesn’t award points based on place differential. We think he will eventually end up inside the top 20 on Saturday night, but it’s not worth the risk and the wasted start when we have Jeff Gordon as our other option. Gordon has been a rock solid top 15 finisher in pretty much every race he has ran this season, and that is true for this weekend’s event as well. He has finished inside the top 10 in each of the last five races here, and while we don’t expect that out of Gordon on Saturday night, it’s certainly possible. Ryan Blaney qualified 20th for this weekend’s race and that’s honestly right around where we have him finishing as well.
Final C Group Rankings: (1) Jeff Gordon, (2) Ryan Blaney, (3) Chase Elliott, (4) David Ragan, (5) Chris Buescher, (6) Regan Smith, (7) Landon Cassill, (8) Brian Scott, the rest
