After that crazy race at Richmond last weekend, the 2016 Chase field is now set in stone (look for our first round preview this week) and we’re on to the first race: Chicagoland. From a Fantasy NASCAR perspective, the best strategy move from here on out is to roll with the guys fighting for the championship. We like to call it the “Chase Effect,” but for whatever reason, those in the playoffs always perform a little better this time of year and are more trustworthy picks. Also, teams that didn’t make the Chase often use these ten races to test for the 2017 season, and more often than not that doesn’t work out.
Yahoo! A Group Picks and Ranking for Chicagoland
Kevin Harvick (5 starts remaining) – As we mentioned last week, Kevin Harvick is going to be a staple on most of our Yahoo! rosters for the rest of the season. This #4 team added yet another top 5 finish to their record last week at Richmond and now have four in a row over the last month. Harvick is a two-time winner here at Chicagoland and has arguably had the best car here for the last couple of years (big surprise there, right?). In last year’s event, Harvick won the pole and was running up front until that whole incident with Jimmie Johnson happened. Still, he has ended up inside the top 5 in three of the last five races here and will be a contender this weekend. He’s a no-brainer this weekend in our opinion.
Brad Keselowski (7 starts remaining) – We’re sticking with momentum here, and while Denny Hamlin is another driver that could be put into this spot, we’re going to roll with Brad Keselowski. He is also a two-timer winner here at Chicagoland Speedway and is currently on a four-race streak of top 8 finishes at this track. As far as momentum, Keselowski finished 4th at Richmond last week and that makes it four top 5s in the last six Sprint Cup races overall for this #2 team. Brad won each of the last two Chicagoland races during even years (2014, 2012) and should be a contender once again this weekend. Also, Las Vegas is somewhat similarly configured to Chicagoland, and don’t forget who won that race back in March. Yep, Brad Keselowski.
We like Kyle Busch this weekend but we don’t like how that #18 team is running right now. It has now been a month since that #18 Toyota has posted a top 5 finish. His brother, Kurt Busch, was competitive for the first time in a while last weekend at Richmond, but we’re not convinced. Kurt does have four finishes of 8th or better in the last five Chicagoland races, though. Our latest winner, Denny Hamlin, should be a nice pick again this weekend. He’s the defending winner of this race and that #11 team has now finished 9th or better in each of the last eight Sprint Cup races overall. Finally, despite having no wins here, Jimmie Johnson is usually a solid top 5 pick at Chicagoland, but he’s nowhere near trustworthy, and this isn’t the race where you take big risks.
Pre-Lockdown A Group Rankings: (1) Kevin Harvick, (2) Brad Keselowski, (3) Joey Logano, (4) Denny Hamlin, (5) Kyle Busch, (6) Matt Kenseth, (7) Jimmie Johnson, (8) Kurt Busch
Yahoo! B Group Picks and Ranking for Chicagoland
Martin Truex, Jr. (4 starts remaining) – We saved a Truex start at Richmond last weekend and luckily Jamie McMurray and Kasey Kahne pulled through with top 10 finishes. However, now that the Chase has started, we’re not as worried about saving starts. The #78 team has been bringing rocket ships to the track lately and don’t be surprised if Truex is challenging for another win in this Sunday’s Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 400. His record here at Chicagoland isn’t great (just two top 10 finishes in ten starts) but does that really matter with Truex? In this race last year, the #78 Toyota was top 5 good and led 39 laps but ended up finishing 13th due to a bad restart late in the race. For what it’s worth, Kansas Speedway is somewhat similarly configured to Chicagoland and Truex had the best car there back in May.
Austin Dillon (4 starts remaining) – Again, we’re sticking with the Chase drivers. Austin Dillon has actually been one of the most solid mid-tier Fantasy NASCAR options as of late, with nine finishes of 16th or better in the last ten Sprint Cup races overall. Here at Chicagoland, his career average finish of 29.5 might scare some people away, but don’t forget that the #3 Chevrolet was potentially top 10 good here last year before blowing a tire and finishing dead last, and in the 2014 race here, Austin wound up 16th after starting 15th. What we really like about Dillon this week, though, is how he’s ran at similar tracks to Chicagoland: at Las Vegas earlier this year, this #3 team came home 5th, and at Kansas they wound up 6th.
Jamie McMurray (5 starts remaining) – Advice: run the Chase drivers while you can. Jamie McMurray posted his fourth top 10 finish in the last five races at Richmond last weekend and secured his spot in NASCAR’s playoffs at the same time. He’s not a surefire top 10 pick this weekend at Chicagoland but the potential is there. Over the last two races here, Jamie has the 12th-best average driver rating of all active drivers, and he wound up finishing 9th in the 2014 race after leading 32 laps. McMurray probably isn’t going to get the start for us this weekend but he’s a nice backup plan in case two of our other B Group drivers look flat this weekend.
Kyle Larson (2 starts remaining) – You didn’t think we were going to forget about this guy, did you? Larson once again had a chance to win last week at Richmond and that makes it three straight finishes of 3rd or better for this #42 team. Momentum-wise, there’s not many teams that have more than this group right now–and now we’re going to a race track that Kyle Larson loves. In two starts here at Chicagoland, he has posted finishes of 3rd and 7th, and with the way this team has been running, don’t be surprised if the #42 Chevrolet is challenging for the win once again on Sunday. Larson is excited for this weekend’s Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 400, and he should be.
We’re really not even looking at any other B Group drivers this weekend, but if you’re running low on starts with the guys above, there are some solid options. Carl Edwards and that #19 team still seem off to us, and while he will probably be at least top 10 good here on Sunday, we’re going to save those 3 starts we have left. Kasey Kahne has finished 15th or better in seven of the last eight Chicagoland races, and it’s hard to overlook the speed that that #5 team has found lately. He should be a solid top 15 pick once again this week, as long as that team isn’t doing R&D for the other Hendrick drivers or the 2017 season. Ryan Newman is still disappointing on a weekly basis but he does have four top 10s in the last five Chicagoland races if you’re desperate. Finally, Tony Stewart had another rough race at Richmond, and something is definitely up with that team. Smoke has finished 25th and 18th in the last two races here.
Pre-Lockdown B Group Rankings: (1) Martin Truex, Jr. (2) Kyle Larson, (3) Carl Edwards, (4) Jamie McMurray, (5) Austin Dillon, (6) Kasey Kahne, (7) Ryan Newman, (8) Tony Stewart, (9) Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. (10) Trevor Bayne, (11) Greg Biffle, (12) Danica Patrick, (13) Aric Almirola, (14) Paul Menard, (15) A.J. Allmendinger, (16) Casey Mears, (17) Clint Bowyer
Yahoo! C Group Picks and Ranking for Chicagoland
There’s ten races left, and we have 3 starts remaining with Chase Elliott and 6 starts remaining with Ryan Blaney, so we’re going with those two this weekend. The other viable option this weekend is Alex Bowman, who is back in the #88 Chevrolet, but considering we’re no longer in extreme start save mode, we don’t see the point in reaching with him. Neither Elliott or Blaney have made a Sprint Cup start here at Chicagoland, but at tracks similar to here (Las Vegas and Kansas), Blaney finished 6th and 5th while Elliott ended up 38th and 9th. Unless you’re really low on starts, those two of those three guys should make your roster, but if you need to go deeper, Chris Buescher is the only other driver worth a shot this weekend. He should be top 25 good on Sunday.
Pre-Lockdown C Group Rankings: (1) Chase Elliott, (2) Ryan Blaney, (3) Alex Bowman, (4) Chris Buescher, (5) Regan Smith, (6) Michael McDowell, (7) Landon Cassill, (8) Brian Scott, the rest
