The second race in the Round of 12 is the Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas Speedway on Sunday afternoon. This is another 1.5-mile race track, as Charlotte was last week–although we’re expecting much less carnage to happen. A few of the remaining Chase drivers need to have a good run here on Sunday so it will be fun to watch how it all unfolds. As far as the track itself, Kansas was repaved in 2012, so if you’re analyzing past results, go ahead and throw out anything before then.
Yahoo! A Group Picks and Rankings for Kansas 2
Kevin Harvick (3 starts remaining) – We’re going with the “desperates” this weekend. Kevin Harvick is another driver that absolutely needs a good run at Kansas this weekend, and if both he and Joey Logano don’t get to victory lane on Sunday, it’s not crazy to think that one (or both) of them might miss out on competing for this year’s Sprint Cup championship. As stated before, Harvick has led the most laps here at Kansas in the last six races and he has finished 1st or 2nd in four of those events. One of those results came the last time we were here (back in May) when Harvick rallied from his 26th-place starting spot to finish 2nd. Three of the four Chase races this season have seen the #4 Chevrolet finish 20th or worse, but it’s hard to imagine their bad luck continuing. With that being said, we just might switch to someone else in the A Group before lockdown on Thursday night.
Joey Logano (5 starts remaining) – Since joining Penske Racing, Joey Logano has arguably been the very best Fantasy NASCAR pick at Kansas Speedway, and after his troubles at Charlotte last weekend, he needs a good run here in Sunday’s Hollywood Casino 400. Logano has won each of the last two Chase races at this track and has finished inside the top 5 in five of the last six. He probably would have ended up that high when we raced here back in May as well but, if you remember, Logano was caught up in a wreck and found up finishing 38th. Since the beginning of September, this #22 team has alternated single-digit finish with double-digit finish, and that trend continues–which we expect it to–Joey should be in the mix for a great finish this weekend. Over the last six Kansas races he has led a total of 292 laps, which is second to only Kevin Harvick’s 392 laps led over that same span.
Kyle Busch used to be terrible here at Kansas but suddenly he has three straight top 5 finishes at this track, and he finally picked up a win here back in the May race. The #18 team has ran well all Chase thus far and that should continue on Sunday. Speaking of running well, Brad Keselowski got another top 7 finish at Charlotte last week, and has now finishes 9th or better in nine of the last ten Sprint Cup races. He should add another top 10 here at Kansas this weekend (he’s currently on a three-race streak). Jimmie Johnson can’t be ignored after his win at Charlotte, as that #48 Chevrolet might be the fastest car on the intermediate tracks right now. He’s a three-time winner at Kansas and finished 3rd in this race one year ago. Matt Kenseth now has three straight top 5 finishes in Sprint Cup action and he probably had the best car in this race last season. He should be top 5 good once again this weekend.
Pre-Lockdown A Group Rankings: (1) Kevin Harvick, (2) Matt Kenseth, (3) Jimmie Johnson, (4) Joey Logano, (5) Kyle Busch, (6) Brad Keselowski, (7) Denny Hamlin, (8) Kurt Busch
Yahoo! B Group Picks and Rankings for Kansas 2
Kasey Kahne (4 starts remaining) – The Kasey Kahne momentum train kept chugging along at Charlotte last weekend as this #5 team got their first top 5 finish since the Dover race back in May. Yeah, it’s seriously been that long. Kahne now has five top 10s in the last six Sprint Cup races overall and hasn’t finished worse than 14th since the beginning of August. Here at Kansas, his recent record isn’t exactly stellar, but how can you go against this guy right now? We can’t, that’s for sure. Kahne finished 4th in this race one year ago and has a career average finish of 13.6 in eighteen starts here at Kansas. He’s also finished inside the top 10 in eight of those attempts (44.4%).
Martin Truex, Jr. (2 starts remaining) – Brad Keselowski seems to think that the drivers that made it through Charlotte without any issues (like Martin Truex, Jr.) will be more inclined to points race at Kansas this weekend, but we disagree. Let’s not forget that Talladega is the next race before the 12 Chase drivers gets cut down to 8, and the only way to guarantee a spot in the next round is with a win. Truex probably should have won this year’s first race at Kansas, so he’ll be looking for redemption in the Hollywood Casino 400 this weekend. He has four top 10s in the eight races on this “new” Kanasas, and three of those were also top 5s. He should be a top 5 threat once again on Sunday despite looking flat at Charlotte last weekend.
Austin Dillon (3 starts remaining) – This #3 team was on their way to another solid finish at Charlotte last weekend before the whole dust-up with Martin Truex, Jr., so now Austin Dillon is in a position where he has to have a good race here at Kansas if he wants a chance to move on in the Chase. If you can’t tell, we like the drivers in that position this weekend. Austin has made six career Sprint Cup starts here at Kansas Speedway and owns two top 10 finishes, including a career-best 6th-place finish in the first race here this season. We still might go with someone else (Kyle Larson) this weekend but as of now we have Austin Dillon and the #3 Chevrolet on our Yahoo! team for Kansas.
Carl Edwards (3 starts remaining) – Carl Edwards needs to turn things around very soon, as we’re still sitting with 3 starts remaining with this #19 Toyota. He wound up finishing 12th at Charlotte last weekend but that’s just not the kind of finish we’re targeting from a guy like Edwards. The good news is that he has finished 11th or better in five of the last six Kansas races, and in the last three Chase events here, he has came home 8th, 5th, and 5th. It’s nowhere near a guarantee right now but we do think that, heading into the Hollywood Casino 400 race weekend, Carl Edwards is a solid top 10 Fantasy NASCAR pick.
We expect Kyle Larson to be at least a top 10 threat this weekend, but we’re down to 2 starts left with him. Looking at the rest of the schedule, Homestead is a good track for him, and Larson finished 3rd in the first Martinsville race this season, so we’re thinking about keeping him for those two races. We’ll, see, though. Ryan Newman showed a sign of life for the first time in a long while at Charlotte last weekend by finishing 4th, so he’s a driver to keep an eye on this weekend. He hasn’t finished worse than 11th in the last five Kansas races. Tony Stewart is another driver that had a good finish last weekend (9th), but in his seven starts here on the new Kansas surface, he has just two results better than 17th. Likewise, Jamie McMurray has a bunch of momentum, but he simply hasn’t raced well here at Kansas and that’s a bit concerning for us. He has just one finish better than 13th in the eight race since the repave. Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. is your best option if you’re desperate–he’s finished 13th in the last two Kansas races and has been solid on the 1.5-mile tracks this season. And once again if you’re looking for a deep sleeper, A.J. Allmendinger is your guy: he finished 8th here in the May race and has wound up 14th or better in three of the last four Kansas races. As we said earlier, Kansas is a lot like Charlotte in terms of which drivers to target.
Pre-Lockdown B Group Rankings: (1) Martin Truex, Jr., (2) Kasey Kahne, (3) Carl Edwards, (4) Kyle Larson, (5) Austin Dillon, (6) Ryan Newman, (7) Jamie McMurray, (8) Ricky Stenhouse, Jr., (9) Tony Stewart, (10) A.J. Allmendinger, (11) Aric Almirola, (12) Trevor Bayne, (13) Danica Patrick, (14) Greg Biffle, (15) Paul Menard, (16) Clint Bowyer, (17) Casey Mears
Yahoo! C Group Picks and Rankings for Kansas 2
In Sunday’s Hollywood Casino 400, we expect a very similar race to what we saw in the Bank of America 500 at Charlotte last weekend–minus the carnage. Chase Elliott had a potential race-winning car in that race, while Ryan Blaney was his typical self: top 15 good with a chance at a top 10 depending on how the race played out. Neither of these rookies got the finish that they deserved last weekend, but that’s just how things happen in the racing world sometimes. In the race here at Kansas back in May, both Elliott and Blaney ended up inside the top 10, and it wouldn’t surprise us if that happened again this weekend. We have 6 starts left between the two so we’re rolling with the two rookies in the C Group this weekend, and if you’re out of one (or both) of them the only other option is Alex Bowman. Other than that, you’re kind of just hoping for the best with Buescher and those other guys.
Pre-Lockdown C Group Rankings: (1) Chase Elliott, (2) Ryan Blaney, (3) Alex Bowman, (4) Chris Buescher, (5) Landon Cassill, (6) Regan Smith, (7) Brian Scott, (8) Michael McDowell, the rest
Do you think Bowman will have another rocket like he did last week? Q points?
Yes, I think he could qualify top 5 once again. Finishing the race is what he’s having issues doing. I personally think that the #88 team is in test mode right now, preparing for 2017, and that’s why he’s having all of these mechanical issues.