It’s always nice to get off to a fast start in Fantasy NASCAR, and that is especially true in the Yahoo! Fantasy Auto Racing league. And part of getting off to a fast start is determined by how aggressive you want to be with your picks. There are a couple extreme strategies that you can employ in this first race of the season, and those are: A.) put the lower-picked drivers on your roster and hope they out-perform the favorites, or B.) ‘go with the pack’ and just fill your team with the aforementioned favorites. Of course, you could always do a little bit of both as well. Starting position really doesn’t matter at restrictor plate tracks, but trends have shown that, in the Daytona 500, the racers starting up front have a higher probability of finishing there. And that makes sense, because the starting lineup was set by the results of Thursday night’s Duels, so really the better cars are starting toward the front.
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Yahoo! A Group Picks for the Daytona 500
If you want to go with the favorite… Denny Hamlin was the 2nd-highest-rostered driver as of Saturday morning (of course Dale Earnhardt, Jr. is 1st at 60%) and has one of the few cars that could go out and dominate Sunday’s Daytona 500. The #11 Toyota was the best car in last Sunday’s Clash race, and Hamlin probably would have won if he would have blocked Brad Keselowski a little sooner. Denny then went on to win his Duel race–taking the victory away from the pied piper Dale Earnhardt, Jr.–after getting a late push from Austin Dillon. Brad Keselowski is another solid option in the A Group if you want to go with the crowd favorite. As of Saturday morning, he was on 24% of rosters, which was the third-highest in the A Group. The #2 Ford has been one of the top 3 cars in terms of pure speed this week at Daytona, and one of the best at handling, too. Keselowski also won the July race here at Daytona last season, although that’s one of only three top 5 finishes for him here in 16 career starts.
If you want to go against the grain… Joey Logano is your guy (19% ownership). He starts back in 15th but should be able to make his way toward the front pretty early once this year’s Great American Race goes green. And if the two Penske Fords are able to work together all race, it could be a long afternoon for the rest of the field. Logano and Keselowski are both masters at drafting and blocking, and don’t forget that the former has won this race before. Joey also three finishes of 6th or better in the last four Daytona races. A second option here is Kevin Harvick (16% ownership), who is making his official Ford debut here on Sunday. He finished 5th in the Clash and 3rd in his Duel race despite dealing with some handling issues. If the #4 team can figure those out, we could see Kevin Harvick back in victory lane at Daytona for the first time since 2010.
My Pick: Kevin Harvick
Yahoo! B Group Picks for the Daytona 500
If you want to go with the favorite… Austin Dillon is still the safest Fantasy NASCAR option at Daytona and it doesn’t look like that is going to change anytime soon. The guy has a career average finish of 11.7 at this track and has posted five top 10 finishes in his seven starts here. Therefore, it’s no surprise that 65% of Yahoo! teams have the #3 Chevrolet rostered this weekend. In Thursday’s Duel race, Austin and his car looked more than capable of getting another good finish on Sunday, too. Jamie McMurray will be rostered by about half of the Yahoo! player pool on Sunday, and for good reason: his #1 Chevrolet was super fast in Thursday’s Duel race, and Jamie always gets the designation of a good plate racer thanks to his Daytona 500 win back in 2010. It’s worth noting that he hasn’t had a top 10 here at Daytona since the 2013 season, though.
If you want to go against the grain… One driver that is flying under the radar this weekend is Aric Almirola. He’s got that Ford power underneath the hood of his #43 car and was actually pretty impressive on the restrictor plate tracks last season, posting an
average finish of 16.6 in the four events. Further, Almirola has been solid here at Daytona as of late, with four top 15 finishes in his last five starts here–including that surprising win in the 2014 July race. Aric will start from 13th on Sunday, too, so it’s not like he’s going to have to make his way through the field from the beginning. Just 7% of Yahoo! teams had Almirola on their roster as of Saturday morning. Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. (14% ownership) is a very good plate racer when it comes to staying out of trouble and finishing the race. He has four finishes of 12th or better in nine career starts here at Daytona and had the 10th-best average finish in the series on restrictor plate tracks last season with 15.5. His Roush-Fenway teammate, Trevor Bayne, wouldn’t be a bad option on Sunday either.
My Picks: Austin Dillon & Trevor Bayne
Yahoo! C Group Picks for the Daytona 500
If you want to go with the favorite… Of the three solid rookies in the C Group, Ty Dillon is the only one with any real Monster Energy Cup racing experience on the restrictor plate tracks. He has raced in the last two Daytona 500s and came away with finishes of 28th and 25th. This year, Ty is in the best equipment he’s had in NASCAR’s top series and should have a strong car for The Great American Race. He also has a pretty good starting spot (18th) after finishing 10th in his Duel race on Thursday night. I wouldn’t recommend even thinking about Daniel Suarez or Erik Jones–their starts will be much more valuable later in the season when the races are more predictable.
If you want to go against the grain… Somehow Michael McDowell is only on 7% of Yahoo! rosters (as of Saturday morning), and that’s very surprising considering how great he was on the restrictor plate tracks last season. Yes, great–for a driver with Michael McDowell’s ability and equipment anyway. In the four plate races last season, he ended up with an average finish of 17.5, which was a little above average in the series. Those included a 15th-place finish in last year’s Daytona 500 with a 10th-place result in the July race. McDowell also has a pretty good starting spot this weekend, as he will roll off the grid from 22nd. Landon Cassill is another nice ‘outside of the box’ pick this weekend, as he’s only on 6% of rosters. However, Cassill had an average finish of 18th on the restrictor plate tracks last season and finished 23rd in last year’s 500. He will start from 27th on Sunday.
My Pick: Michael McDowell
