The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series continues its West Coast Swing this weekend with the Camping World 500(k) at Phoenix International Raceway. This is a 1-mile tri-oval track that is super flat and produces some great racing, even when Kevin Harvick is out there dominating the event–which he has done in five of the last six. In both races here last season, though, Harvick looked beatable, and in the fall he definitely was, as the #4 car didn’t lead a single lap and ended up finishing 4th. So, will we see Harvick return to power this weekend and get that elusive first win of the 2017 season? A couple other drivers might have something to say about that…
Yahoo! A Group Early Picks and Rankings for Phoenix
Kevin Harvick (8 starts remaining) – Yes, by default, Kevin Harvick is the A Group pick for Phoenix. He’s an eight-time winner here and has led nearly 1,500 laps over his twenty-eight career starts in the desert. To highlight how impressive that is, note that Jimmie Johnson is next on that list with just under 1,000 laps led. Harvick has finished 1st or 2nd in eight of the last ten Phoenix races and will definitely have a car to contend for the win this weekend as well. With all that being said, there’s an incredible fade opportunity with Harvick, and for a couple of reasons. First, this #4 team can’t get rid of the bad luck bug thus far in 2017. And second, don’t forget that Harvick didn’t even contend for the win the last time we were here at Phoenix (back in November). He still finished 4th, though. I’ve gotten off to a fast start in Yahoo! this year so I’m happy to go with the majority and stick with Harvick on Sunday.
Joey Logano (9 starts remaining) – Joey Logano might not be the first driver you think of when the series comes to Phoenix International Raceway but he’s a damn good Fantasy NASCAR choice this weekend. This #22 team hasn’t quite hit on the best setup so far this season, but they haven’t done anything wrong, either, and that’s why Logano has finished 6th, 6th, and 4th so far in 2017. When you go back to last year and look at the last six Cup races overall, Joey has an insane average finish of 3.8, which includes his victory here at Phoenix last November. That makes it six finishes of 9th or better in the last seven races at this track for Logano, and he should be able to easily make it seven of eight in the Camping World 500(k) this weekend.
Harvick and Logano are the clear top 2 in the A Group this week, but the rest of the drivers here are pretty solid, too. One guy to keep an eye on is Dale Earnhardt, Jr. Back here at Phoenix last November, Alex Bowman raced this #88 Chevrolet and almost ended up winning the race before him and Matt Kenseth got together. Still, Bowman had the best car that day, and that should help Junior this weekend, although he won’t need much help considering he has five top 5s in his last seven starts at Phoenix.
Pre-Lockdown A Group Rankings: (1) Kevin Harvick, (2) Joey Logano, (3) Kyle Busch, (4) Brad Keselowski, (5) Dale Earnhardt, Jr. (6) Matt Kenseth, (7) Jimmie Johnson, (8) Denny Hamlin, (9) Martin Truex, Jr.
Yahoo! B Group Early Picks and Rankings for Phoenix
Kurt Busch (8 starts remaining) – Kurt Busch puts up A Group-like numbers here at Phoenix, and for that reason he has to be in your lineup this weekend. Over his last six starts here in the desert, Busch has posted six finishes between 5th and 7th, and the only exception during that span was this race back in 2014 when Kurt had engine problems. His career average finish here at Phoenix is 13.1, and while they isn’t overly impressive, that actually makes this track the 3rd-best (statistically) on the circuit for the elder Busch brother. He does have one victory here (way back in 2005) and has led 750 total laps in his career at Phoenix, which is 3rd-best among active drivers.
Ryan Blaney (9 starts remaining) – With the immense amount of young talent flooding the Cup Series right now, it’s easy for people to overlook Ryan Blaney. However, his solid run at Las Vegas last weekend got people noticing that #21 Ford once again, and don’t be surprised if he goes out to Phoenix and has another great race. Blaney ran 10th and 8th in his two Cup starts here in the desert last season and there’s no reason to think that he won’t be able to replicate those this weekend. The key for him will be to qualify up front, as Blaney tends to run better when he has good track position to start the race.
Kyle Larson (8 starts remaining) – And for the fourth Cup race in a row, Larson was in position to win once again at Las Vegas last weekend. The #42 Chevrolet wasn’t the best car in Sin City last Sunday but Larson still piloted that thing to a 2nd-place finish, and it’s hard to go against a driver that is just rattling off top 5 after top 5 like this. Here at Phoenix, Kyle’s career-best result has been 3rd over his six career starts, and the good news is that that occurred last November. Before that, Larson’s best finish here was 10th. The #42 Chevrolet should be at least top 10 good here on Sunday, but with as fast as this team has gotten out of the gate this year, don’t be surprised it Kyle is up there challenging for the win yet again on Sunday.
Jamie McMurray (8 starts remaining) – Jamie McMurray is another driver that keeps rattling off good finish after good finish, and this is the time of year where players in Yahoo! Fantasy Auto need to capitalize on those results. Yes, it is incredibly early to be thinking about start saving, but at the same time, what are the chances that Jamie Mac keeps this kind of production going through the rest of the year. It’s better to take a top 10 finish out of McMurray now and lose the points from a top 5 finish out of someone like Chase Elliott than it would be to be forced into using Jamie Mac at the end of the season and settle for top 15s. Here at Phoenix, McMurray is a consistent top 15 threat but he did finish 2nd in this race two years ago.
Chase Elliott is an excellent option in the B Group this week, but since I’ve already started him twice this year, there’s no way he makes my roster for Phoenix; the last situation I want to be in is to have 6 Chase Elliott starts with 32 races left. Chase finished 8th and 9th in the two races here last season and should be at least a top 10 threat come Sunday. Kasey Kahne posted another solid finish at Las Vegas last weekend, and with that momentum, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him challenge for a top 10 at Phoenix on Sunday. He has four top 5s in his last eleven starts here. Both Ryan Newman and Austin Dillon have top 10 potential this weekend, but it’s hard to recommend either of them because they never really run strong all day here at Phoenix. Instead, they’re decent for much of the race and then sometimes end up near the front.
Pre-Lockdown B Group Rankings: (1) Kurt Busch, (2) Kyle Larson, (3) Chase Elliott, (4) Ryan Blaney, (5) Jamie McMurray, (6) Kasey Kahne, (7) Clint Bowyer, (8) Ryan Newman, (9) Austin Dillon, (10) A.J. Allmendinger, (11) Trevor Bayne, (12) Ricky Stenhouse, Jr., (13) Paul Menard, (14) Aric Almirola, (15) Danica Patrick, (16) Chris Buescher
Yahoo! C Group Early Picks and Rankings for Phoenix
Both Erik Jones and Ty Dillon have raced here at Phoenix International Raceway in the Cup Series before so I’m going to stick with both of them as my C Group drivers yet again this weekend. Ty raced in this race last season, replacing Tony Stewart in the #14 car, and ended up finishing 15th after qualifying back in 28th. And honestly it wouldn’t be too surprising if the #13 Chevrolet had a similar outcome here on Sunday. As far as Jones, the #77 Toyota has been impressive this season but that team seems to fall apart in the last part of every race. Once they get that minor issue figured out, though, he should be contending for top 10s on a regular basis. Erik raced here in Phoenix back in November of 2015, in place of Matt Kenseth, who was serving his suspension for wrecking Joey Logano. Jones wound up finishing 19th that day after qualifying 7th.
Pre-Lockdown C Group Rankings: (1) Erik Jones, (2) Ty Dillon, (3) Daniel Suarez, (4) Landon Cassill, (5) Michael McDowell, (6) Matt DiBenedetto, (7) David Ragan, the rest
