The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series completes its west coast swing this weekend with the Auto Club 400 in Fontana, California. This is a wide, 2-mile race track that allows drivers to move around and run different lines while searching for maximum speed. As far as the expectations for Sunday’s race, you can expect the same names up front that we have seen up there over the first four events this year, particularly the races at Atlanta and Las Vegas. The key with this race will be avoiding the ‘surprise disappointers,’ like Joey Logano was at Phoenix last weekend. Sunday’s Auto Club 400 will also be a nice early season test for the durability of each team’s equipment. Don’t be surprised if there’s some part failures this weekend.
Yahoo! A Group Early Picks and Rankings for Fontana
Kevin Harvick (8 starts remaining) – It gets annoying to constantly repeat but Kevin Harvick is the top Fantasy NASCAR pick heading into this weekend’s Auto Club 400. He has finished 2nd in the last two races here at Fontana and has wound up finishing 7th or better in five of the last seven races here overall. Surprisingly enough, however, he only has one career victory at this track (back in 2011). Maybe this strong Ford motor will be just what Harvick needs to get his second win at the track. He’s going to be on a lot of rosters this weekend–although not as many as last week at Phoenix–but that’s to be expected.
Kyle Busch (9 starts remaining) – Well, Kyle Busch got his victory at Phoenix taken away from him thanks to Joey Logano nailing the wall with three laps to go, but the positive thing to look at there is that Rowdy finally got a good finish. And when you take into account his should-have-had top 5 at Las Vegas, this #18 team is running pretty well as of late. Looking at Kyle’s record here at Fontana, it’s pretty strong to say the least; he did finish 25th in this race last year, but don’t forget that was due to a flat tire in the closing laps. Before that, Busch had four straight top 5 finishes here at Auto Club Speedway, including back-to-back wins in 2013 and 2014.
Brad Keselowski has put together a string of three straight top 5 finishes, including his win at Atlanta a couple of weeks ago and also has the most stage points over all four races this season. Here at Auto Club Speedway, Keselowski has one career victory (back in 2015, when he only lead one lap) but no other top 5 finish. This could make him an excellent off-sequence pick in Yahoo! this week, so it’s worth keeping an eye on Brad’s pick percentage as we get closer to lockdown. Another nice off-sequence pick is Martin Truex, Jr. He’s going to be one of the lower-owned drivers all season long in the A Group this season simply because it’s hard to justify going with him over someone like Jimmie Johnson or Joey Logano. Truex had a top 5 car here last season but didn’t get the finish because he hit the wall late in the race.
Pre-Lockdown A Group Rankings: (1) Kevin Harvick, (2) Brad Keselowski, (3) Joey Logano, (4) Kyle Busch, (5) Martin Truex, Jr., (6) Jimmie Johnson, (7) Denny Hamlin, (8) Dale Earnhardt, Jr. (9) Matt Kenseth
Yahoo! B Group Early Picks and Rankings for Fontana
Chase Elliott (7 starts remaining) – Once again Chase Elliott is knocking on the door of victory, and it’s only a matter of time before he knocks it down. The #24 Chevrolet has finished inside the top 5 in both intermediate races thus far in 2017 and will definitely be up there here in Fontana on Sunday. Chase’s first Cup start here at Auto Club Speedway came last season and he ended up finishing 6th after qualifying 8th and leading one lap. Looking back at the second Michigan race last year–which is also a 2-mile race track and used this ultra low downforce package–Elliott finished 2nd and was in contention to win all day long. We might be using a bunch of Chase starts early on in the year but how can you pass up potential wins out of your B Group drivers?
Kyle Larson (8 starts remaining) – Larson is another B Group driver that is on a roll right now, as he posted his third straight 2nd-place finish at Phoenix last weekend. Looking back at the last six overall races (so going back to the final two races in 2016), Larson has been one of the best Fantasy NASCAR picks and has an incredible average finish of 3.8.That average would be even better if the #42 Chevrolet didn’t run out of gas on the last lap of this year’s Daytona 500. Larson has made three career starts here at Auto Club Speedway with a best result of, you guessed it, 2nd. He’s a top 5 machine right now and doesn’t show any signs of slowing down.
Jamie McMurray (8 starts remaining) – Larson’s success this season has also helped Jamie McMurray get off to a fast start. In fact, over those same six races that Larson has a series-best 3.8 average finish, McMurray has the 4th-best average with 12.8. Jamie loves this ultra low downforce package and was able to finish 9th and 8th with it in the two Michigan races, which, as mentioned before, is another 2-mile race track. The #1 Chevrolet came home 10th here at Auto Club Speedway last season and McMurray has finished inside that mark in two of the last three races here overall. He should be in contention for another solid finish this weekend.
Ryan Blaney (8 starts remaining) – This #21 team had a terrible second half of the race at Phoenix last weekend but that doesn’t take away how strong they have been on the intermediate tracks this season. In other words, you should prepare for a nice bounce back by Ryan Blaney in Sunday’s Auto Club 400. He finished in the mid-30s in this race last season, but that was mainly due to the #21 Ford nailing the wall with a handful of laps to go. Blaney’s average running position in that race was 15th. This year, Blaney has had the 10th-best average driver rating at Atlanta and Las Vegas, and when you look back at the Michigan races last season, he wound up finishing 4th in the August race up there.
Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. should be a solid pick this weekend if you’re looking for a deep sleeper. He’s coming off of that nice top 5 run at Phoenix last weekend and also wound up 5th here at Fontana last year. Overall, Stenhouse has finished inside the top 20 in three of his four career starts here. The Richard Childress Racing Chevrolets of Austin Dillon and Ryan Newman should both be top 15 good, but you never really know how they’re going to unload off the truck. Kasey Kahne will be someone to keep an eye on this weekend. His record here at Fontana isn’t great (only one finish better than 14th in his last five starts) but this #5 team has been better than normal this year, and Kahne seems to like this package.
Pre-Lockdown B Group Rankings: (1) Chase Elliott, (2) Kyle Larson, (3) Ryan Blaney, (4) Jamie McMurray, (5) Kurt Busch, (6) Kasey Kahne, (7) Austin Dillon, (8) Ryan Newman, (9) Clint Bowyer, (10) Ricky Stenhouse, Jr., (11) Trevor Bayne, (12) Paul Menard, (13) A.J. Allmendinger, (14) Danica Patrick, (15) Chris Buescher, (16) Aric Almirola
Yahoo! C Group Early Picks and Rankings for Fontana
We’re looking at the same situation as usual in the C Group this weekend: Erik Jones and Ty Dillon. The former finally got the finish he deserved last weekend by ending up 8th, and the latter just kept chugging along to a 16th-place finish in the desert, as expected. As far as this weekend at Auto Club Speedway, you have to give the edge to Jones in the equipment department, as there may be some concerns about how well that #13 Chevrolet holds up on Sunday. This race track is tough on equipment. As far as Daniel Suarez goes, yeah, he got a top 10 finish at Phoenix, but that was more due to luck than anything. He ran around in 20th all day long and then got lucky with that final caution. He’s still a ‘wait and see’ in my book.
Pre-Lockdown C Group Rankings: (1) Erik Jones, (2) Ty Dillon, (3) Daniel Suarez, (4) Michael McDowell, (5) David Ragan, (6) Landon Cassill, (7) Matt DiBenedetto, the rest
