When it comes to the races here at Pocono, qualifying doesn’t mean a whole lot, but at the same time it’s better to have the track position to start the race (as well as a good pit stall), especially considering there are only 160 scheduled laps to be run on Sunday. In this race last year, however, pretty much all the cars that qualified up front ended up finishing there as well, and it wouldn’t be that surprising if that happened this weekend because there was very little surprises during qualifying here on Friday.
My team points last week (Dover): 278
Overall team percentile: 93rd
Total team points for the season: 3,684
Yahoo! A Group Pick and Final Rankings for Pocono
If you read my Early Week Yahoo! Rankings for Pocono, you’ll know that I recommended Kyle Busch this weekend–and that recommendation paid off on Friday because the #18 Toyota wound up on the pole for this year’s Pocono 400. Rowdy was also the fastest in Saturday’s lone practice session and it’s hard not to consider him a legitimate threat to lead the most laps here on Sunday. Busch has never won in the Cup Series at “The Tricky Triangle,” but that day will come. He has a great car this weekend.
Martin Truex, Jr. is someone that should be very good as well despite his poor practice effort on Saturday. For whatever reason, Truex only made 10 laps on Saturday and was just 15th-fastest on the speed chart. Still, he had the car to beat here in the August race last season and should be a contender this weekend as well. EDIT: Martin Truex, Jr.‘s team changed the engine overnight and he will start from the rear of the field. He should still be a top 10 car. Another A Group driver to keep your eye on is Brad Keselowski. He qualified 6th for Sunday’s race and went out and won the Xfinity race here on Saturday. Kez has finished 2nd or 3rd in each of the last three Cup Series Pocono races and was 2nd-fastest in Saturday’s practice session.
Kevin Harvick had an impressive Happy Hour this weekend, as he was one of the few cars that was able to make a long run. He will start from back in 12th on Sunday but if Harvick can get some track position he is a definite threat to win this weekend. He has finished 4th or better in three of the last five Pocono races and has led at least three laps in all five of those events. One outsider that could surprise some people here on Sunday is Matt Kenseth, who qualified 3rd for this year’s Pocono 400 and has really taken a liking to “The Tricky Triangle” as of late. Matt won the August race here two years ago and should be able to compete for a top 5 finish this weekend.
As far as the drivers that qualified further back–such as Denny Hamlin (18th) and Jimmie Johnson (19th)–it’s hard to recommend them over the aforementioned drivers just because of the starting track position. Both Hamlin and Johnson should be top 10 threats on Sunday but I don’t see either as a potential race winner. And as far as Joey Logano goes, the #22 Ford looks a lot better this weekend than it has over the past month, and Joey is a good racer here at Pocono. As far as taking the chance and starting him in Yahoo!, I’d probably hold off.
My Starter: Kyle Busch over Martin Truex, Jr.
Final A Group Rankings: (1) Kyle Busch, (2) Brad Keselowski, (3) Kevin Harvick, (4) Matt Kenseth, (5) Martin Truex, Jr., (6) Jimmie Johnson, (7) Denny Hamlin, (8) Joey Logano, (9) Dale Earnhardt, Jr.
Yahoo! B Group Picks and Final Rankings for Pocono
Don’t be surprised if Kyle Larson is a threat to win once again this weekend. He has made six Cup Series starts here at Pocono and has yet to finish worse than 12th. This weekend, Larson went out and qualified 7th on Friday and then wound up 3rd-fastest during the practice session on Saturday. He may not the lead the most laps, but Larson will be there at the end. Another B Group driver with a legitimate shot at winning here on Sunday is Kurt Busch. He’s the defending winner of this race and hasn’t finished worse than 5th at Pocono in June since joining Stewart-Haas Racing. He’ll roll off the grid from 5th when we go green on Sunday and it’s noteworthy that the #41 team sounded really happy with the car on Saturday.
The next best option in the B Group is Chase Elliott, but he starts way back in 25th. I have no concern about whether or not he’ll be able to get into the top 10 (Chase was 4th-fastest in Saturday’s practice session) but whether or not to start him in Yahoo! is something you really have to consider. Starting so far back, Elliott is much less likely to lead any laps on Sunday, so that means you’re probably looking at just finish points for him. He might be best sitting on your bench for another week.
Ryan Blaney qualified 4th this weekend and is worth considering in your starting lineup. He finished 10th and 11th in the two Pocono races last season and there’s no reason to think he won’t be able to pull that off again. Jamie McMurray is another solid B Group driver who has a shot at a top 10 here on Sunday. He qualified 8th for this weekend’s Pocono 400 and has been one of the most consistent performers in the Yahoo! B Group all year long.
If you’re looking for a ‘start save’ option, Ryan Newman is your man. He went out and qualified 10th here on Friday and then posted the 7th-fastest lap in Happy Hour on Saturday afternoon. Newman finished 12th in both races here at Pocono last season and has ended up inside that mark in 11 of his last 13 starts here. Talk about consistent. His teammate, Austin Dillon, is another decent option in the lower tier of the B Group. He will start from 17th on Sunday and has wound up between 13th and 19th in all but one of his six career starts here. Additionally, Pocono races have been known to end in weird fashion (such as fuel mileage), and if you think back to the wackiest races thus far in 2017, the winners have been Ryan Newman (Phoenix) and Austin Dillon (Charlotte).
My Starters: Kyle Larson and Kurt Busch over Chase Elliott and Ryan Blaney
Final B Group Rankings: (1) Kyle Larson, (2) Kurt Busch, (3) Chase Elliott, (4) Jamie McMurray, (5) Ryan Newman, (6) Ryan Blaney, (7) Clint Bowyer, (8) Austin Dillon, (9) Ricky Stenhouse, Jr., (10) Kasey Kahne, (11) Trevor Bayne, (12) A.J. Allmendinger, (13) Chris Buescher, (14) Paul Menard, (15) Danica Patrick
Yahoo! C Group Pick and Final Rankings for Pocono
As far as Darrell Wallace, Jr. goes, the good news is that we will have him available as a C Group driver until Aric Almirola comes back from his injury. So as far as providing start save relief, we have found our driver. Now the question becomes, should you start Bubba this weekend? He qualified 16th for Sunday’s Pocono 400 but didn’t put down a very fast lap in Happy Hour on Saturday, partly because the team worked on getting on to pit road. I have Bubba pegged for a finish between 20th and 25th on Sunday. As far as the two C Group studs go–Daniel Suarez and Erik Jones–both look like top 15 threats this weekend and they qualified 14th and 15th, respectively. I give the nod to Suarez (but only by a little bit) over Jones heading into Sunday. If you have Michael McDowell, it might be worth a shot in starting him. He qualified 11th this weekend and has been legitimately running inside the top 20 for the last month now. There’s some risk there because of the equipment reliability concern, but McDowell is more than capable of finishing in the teens here on Sunday.
My Starter: Erik Jones over Darrell Wallace, Jr.
Final C Group Rankings: (1) Daniel Suarez, (2) Erik Jones, (3) Ty Dillon, (4) Michael McDowell, (5) Darrell Wallace, Jr., (6) David Ragan, (7) Landon Cassill, (8) Cole Whitt, the rest
How does Truex’s move to the rear affect him? My other option is JJ. What’s the call?
Close call. I’d probably still go Truex.