Part of succeeding in DraftKings on race day is avoiding the disappointing drivers that are highly owned by your competitors. For example, Jeffrey Earnhardt getting a DNF at 1% ownership doesn’t help you much, but Dale Earnhardt, Jr. wrecking out at 40% ownership can easily put you in the money if you faded him. Therefore, it’s those strategy plays that I will be focusing on with my “Avoid” list for DraftKings this year. That’s the only way you have a shot at taking home the big $50,000 prize for Sunday’s Daytona 500.

Also check out: DraftKings Drivers to Target in the Daytona 500

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DraftKings Drivers to Avoid for the Daytona 500

Chase Elliott ($9,000) – Yes, Chase Elliott looked very impressive in his Duel race that he won on Thursday night. No, you should not think that he’s going to have a similar race in the 500 on Sunday. The big event on Sunday is a long one, and Chase Elliott knows that. He won’t be nearly as aggressive as he was on Thursday, which means he won’t stay out front to lead some laps and get bonus FPTS. Now don’t get me wrong, it’s very possible that Chase ends up with a top 10 finish when it’s all said and done on Sunday, but even then he’s going to end up with a mid-20s base FPTS total, and that’s a lot of ground to make up with laps led and fastest laps. It’s a no-brainer not to draft the pole sitter for a restrictor plate race in DraftKings, but it should still be reaffirmed after Elliott’s strong run on Thursday night. He’s not worth the risk or the incredibly high salary.

Matt Kenseth ($8,700) – The Joe Gibbs Racing Toyotas are all strong enough to go out and take the checkered flag on Sunday, but it’s probably not going to be Matt Kenseth that’s holding the trophy. Back in 2012, when Matt won the Daytona 500, he followed that up with a 3rd-place finish in the July race and was suddenly lauded as an elite plate track driver. The only problem is that he has been nothing but disappointing since. Kenseth is an aggressive driver at Daytona and usually gets out front and leads for part of the race, but he has just one top 10 finish in his last eight starts here. Further, six of his last eight starts he has finished 20th or worse. He’s likely to grab a higher-than-deserved ownership percentage on Sunday (in part due to his JGR car) and you should avoid that mess. He’ll start from 9th in this year’s Great American Race.

Daniel Suarez ($7,700) – There’s three major factors that could cause Daniel Suarez’s ownership to be higher than it should on Sunday. First it the most obvious: he’s in a Joe Gibbs Racing car with an elite team. He’s also moderately priced and can be substituted into most lineups seamlessly. And finally, he’s going to start back in 19th, which opens up the door for some place differential FPTS. While those are all great points, you also have to keep in mind that rookies rarely come out and do great in the Daytona 500. Especially rookies that were suddenly thrust into a Cup ride with a little over a month before the start of the season. This isn’t an “avoid like the plague” designation, but I wouldn’t go too heavy on Suarez in DraftKings this weekend.

Chris Buescher ($6,400) – Can you get much worse than Chris Buescher was on the restrictor plate tracks last season? In those four events, he had an average finish of 34.0 with an average driver rating of 47.3. Both of those statistics were in the bottom four for worst in the series. Daytona was particularly bad for Chris Buescher, as he wound up 39th in the 2016 season-opening Daytona 500 and then dead last (40th) in the July race. Now, at this point, you may be asking why he’s on this Avoid list when it’s so apparent how bad he is at this track type. Well, with a starting spot of 37th and a low-range salary, he’s going to be in a lot of DraftKings lineups on Sunday. I know that even the blind squirrel finds a nut every once in awhile, but it’s going to take a lot of luck for Buescher to have a good showing here on Sunday–and I don’t think there’s any rain in the forecast to help him like at Pocono last season.

Ty Dillon ($6,200) – Ty Dillon is a viable option in quite a few Fantasy NASCAR leagues this weekend, but not DraftKings. He’s going to end up starting 18th for this year’s Great American Race, which is right around his ceiling for where he could finish without some major luck coming into play. This is the younger Dillon brother’s first full season in the Cup series so his goal is just going to be to log as many laps as possible. Ty has raced in the last two Daytona 500s but ended up finishing 25th and 28th after starting 12th and 31st, respectively. He’d be an option in DraftKings if he started 28th instead of 18th, but that’s not the case. There’s plenty of other drivers at or around his salary number with higher FPTS potential on Sunday.

The second round of DraftKings Duel contests on Thursday night will start immediately after the first and feature an entirely new slate of drivers. This second lineup is quite less star-studded than the first, although every NASCAR fan will be paying attention anyway because Dale Earnhardt, Jr. is making his much-anticipated return to the track. He will start on the pole alongside Clint Bowyer, who is in a brand new ride this season. The second Duel race has quite a few good plate drivers starting mid-pack or worse, so it has the potential to actually be a better race than the first.

DraftKings Drivers to Target in Duel #2

Kurt Busch ($9,100) – After a very disappointing effort in The Clash last Sunday, expect Kurt Busch to be on a mission to rebound in his Duel race on Thursday night. These Stewart-Haas Racing Fords have plenty of horsepower, and Kurt Busch is one of the better restrictor plate racers in the field despite his lack of wins on these big tracks. When you look at all of the Daytona 500s from 2010 (seven total), Busch has the 6th-best average start of all active drivers with 11.3, which roughly equals an average finish of 5.7 in his Duel races since the starting lineup of The Great American Race is set by the results of these exhibition events. And with Kurt’s starting spot being 11th here on Thursday night, he’ll earn you quite a few FPTS if he’s able to continue that success. Hopefully he can go a full race without Jimmie Johnson turning him into the wall, though.

Denny Hamlin ($9,600) – Don’t be surprised if Denny Hamlin ends up in victory lane on Thursday night. Yeah, it worked out to fade him in The Clash on Sunday, but let’s not forget that Hamlin had, hands down, the best car in that race and led 48 of the 75 laps. He won’t have to worry about the Penske cars of Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano in this race, either, so it wouldn’t be all that surprising to see Denny absolutely dominate the second Duel. The only bad thing is that there aren’t many other Toyotas in the field for him to work with. Pretty much the only one is his quasi-teammate, Erik Jones, who will probably be a little conservative in this race. Still, the #11 Toyota is more than fast enough to get out front and stay out front, and Hamlin is one of (if not the) best plate racer in the series right now.

A.J. Allmendinger ($6,900) – There’s a lot of things to like about A.J. Allmendinger on Thursday night. First off is how he performed on the restrictor plate tracks last season: in the four points-paying races at Daytona and Talladega in 2016, Allmendinger’s worst finish was 21st, and he capped off the year with a solid 10th-place showing at ‘Dega in October. Furthermore, while A.J. hasn’t been solid in his Duel races over the last couple of years, he did finish 7th in this event back in 2014, 8th in 2012, and 7th in 2011 and 2010. The JTG Daugherty cars are powered by Earnhardt-Childress engines, which have powered Austin Dillon and Ryan Newman to nice finishes here at Daytona over the last couple of years. One only thing you do have to worry about with Allmendinger on Thursday night, though, is whether or not he will stick around in the back and run with his new teammate, Chris Buescher, who has shown to be absolutely awful at plate racing thus far.

Michael McDowell ($5,700) – Of the lower-tier drivers in Duel #2, it wouldn’t be surprising at all if Elliott Sadler ($6,700) is the highest-owned. He also starts back in 18th, which limits his floor and causes his ceiling to rise even higher. But you usually don’t win any big money in DraftKings by going with the crowd, so why not give Michael McDowell a shot? Not only is his salary a full $1,000 less than Elliott Sadler, but McDowell was actually a restrictor plate stud last season; in the four points-paying races at Daytona and Talladega in 2016, Michael McDowell posted finishes of 16th, 21st, 10th, and 16th. The only real concern is whether or not this #95 team will run as hard as they can on Thursday night considering they’re already locked into the Great American Race on Sunday. Expect McDowell to hang around in the back for most of the race on Thursday night before trying to make a charge in the final laps.

Well, the DFS season started off with a bang–as expected–with the Clash last Sunday, as the drivers of the two dominant cars (Denny Hamlin and Brad Keselowski) got together on the final lap while fighting for the lead, causing a major last-second shakeup in most DraftKings pools. In the end, it was Joey Logano that was able to slip past and drive away to victory lane, while Kyle Busch and Alex Bowman rounded out the top 3. The Stewart-Haas Fords of Danica Patrick and Kevin Harvick filled the rest of the top 5.

Now we’re on to the two Can-Am Duel races to set the final starting lineup for the 2017 Daytona 500. These two races will be held on Thursday night, and DraftKings has contests for each of them up and ready in their lobby. Strategy-wise, many teams used to not take these Duel races very seriously. However, with the addition of championship points being awarded in these two events, that might increase the aggressiveness we see out of some drivers. However, one driver that might lay back and stay out of trouble is Chase Elliott, who is on the pole for Sunday’s Great American Race–as long as he doesn’t wreck his primary car in Thursday night’s Duel.

DraftKings Drivers to Target in Duel #1

Brad Keselowski ($10,200) – This is going to seem like a no-brainer, but Keselowski’s high salary for the first Duel on Thursday night should drive away a good chunk of DraftKings players. Both of the Penske cars are going to be good in this race, but Keselowski starts up front (2nd) and he’s going to stay there. His teammate, Joey Logano, will start back in 9th, but should make his way to the front pretty early. And while that move is great for place differential points, Keselowski has a better chance at earning dominator points for laps led and fastest laps. As far as negatives with the Blue Deuce, there aren’t a lot on Thursday night, but there is one statistic that you should keep an eye on: his average start of 25.3 in the last seven Daytona 500s. This specifically translates directly to mediocre finishes in the Duel races. With that being said, championship points will be awarded here on Thursday night, and you know BK isn’t going to pass those up. Expect him to be aggressive once again, just like he was in the Clash last Sunday–although hopefully with a better finish this time around.

Trevor Bayne ($6,800) – Don’t be surprised to hear Trevor Bayne’s name mentioned a few times on Thursday night. The Roush-Fenway organization had somewhat of a comeback season in 2016, and with the elimination of Greg Biffle’s #16 car, they can now focus on their two young guns: Trevor Bayne and Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. Overall, the Ford cars have all been super fast at Daytona this year, and that shouldn’t change on Thursday night. Bayne has always been thought of as a bit of a fluke restrictor plate driver since his Daytona 500 victory back in 2011, but you can’t overlook the fact that he has back-to-back top 10 finishes in the last two July races here at Daytona. Trevor has also finished between 6th and 12th in three of his last five Duel starts, and with so many big-name drivers in this race, his ownership percentage could end up being quite low.

Jamie McMurray ($8,500) – You’re going to have to allocate quite a bit of your cap money to McMurray if you decide to roster him on Thursday night, but it’s a move that could easily put you into a spot to win some cash. McMurray has always been regarded as a very good plate racer, although sometimes his aggressiveness is a cause for concern for fantasy owners. To win at a restrictor plate track, though, you have to be aggressive. Chip Ganassi Racing as a whole should benefit from their continued partnership with Hendrick Motorsports (now that Stewart-Haas has moved to Ford) and if those two teams can get their handling issues from last season figured out, they each could have a big year at Daytona and Talladega. Over the last seven Daytona 500s, McMurray has an average starting spot of 15.6, which roughly equates to an average Duel finish of 7.8. On Thursday night, the #1 Chevrolet will start from back in 12th.

Landon Cassill ($6,000) – When it comes to restrictor plate races, success in Fantasy NASCAR usually involves having a guy like Landon Cassill on your roster. Between all of the wrecks and the overall even playing field, these races allow the lower-tier drivers to run up with the ‘big boys’ a few times a year. As far as the lower-tier drivers go this Thursday, chances are Landon Cassill is going to be the highest finisher. He’s going to start 14th, which is a little higher than ideal, but this guy has a knack for staying out of trouble; over the last three Duel races, Cassill has finished 11th, 9th, and 9th. Don’t forget that Landon is in that #34 Ford for Front Row Motorsports this year, which has plenty of horsepower with Chris Buescher behind the wheel last season.