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Today’s Ford EcoBoost 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway is going to go through a transition as the race goes on. Not only will the overall dynamic of the race itself change, but the track conditions themselves will change as well. Today’s championship race will start during the day but end at night, and as the event goes on, the four drivers still eligible for the championship will be racing harder than they ever have before to get to the front. One interesting thing to note: the driver that leads the most laps in a typical Homestead race usually doesn’t get to victory lane. The last time someone led the most laps here and won the race was Carl Edwards back in 2010.
Kevin Harvick is in a prime position to lead a whole bunch of laps today, and Carl Edwards looks to have a car that is very strong as well. With this Lineup, we have those two on there as well as a few guys that should score quite a few place differential FPTS (Kyle Larson, Kasey Kahne, and Ty Dillon). Hopefully Michael McDowell can keep his car off the wall this week, and this could be a very good lineup.
Kevin Harvick
Carl Edwards
Kyle Larson
Kasey Kahne
Ty Dillon
Michael McDowell
Lineup #2
Martin Truex, Jr. has been the best on the 1.5-mile race tracks this season and Homestead is (statistically) his best track on the Sprint Cup circuit. This Lineup also throws in Austin Dillon, who has been one of the most steady performers at these intermediate tracks this season, and showed potential top 10 speed during the practice sessions on Saturday.
Martin Truex, Jr.
Carl Edwards
Kyle Larson
Kasey Kahne
Austin Dillon
Regan Smith
Lineup #3
The Hendrick duo of Jimmie Johnson and Chase Elliott have been two of the best on the recent intermediate race tracks, and both of those have cars that can lead a bunch of laps today. Johnson also has room for place differential FPTS, as he qualified back in 14th. You could also swap out Paul Menard for Danica Patrick with this Lineup.
Jimmie Johnson
Carl Edwards
Chase Elliott
Kasey Kahne
Paul Menard
Landon Cassill
Lineup #4
Carl Edwards is going to be pretty high-owned in DraftKings today, so this Lineup gives you the opportunity to fade him. As far as Regan Smith goes, we think he is the best option among the low-low dollar drivers this weekend. He’s typically a mid-20s finisher and he starts back in 35th today.
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As weird as it may sound, Sunday afternoon’s race at Homestead-Miami Speedway is going to be a little different than other recent races. Whereas some drivers were implementing different strategies throughout the earlier races, the only drivers that really matter this weekend are the “Championship Four” of Jimmie Johnson, Carl Edwards, Kyle Busch, and Joey Logano. Expect all four of those drivers to end up near the front when it’s all said and done on Sunday, although there are a couple of outsiders that may try to spoil the party. We only visit Homestead once a year so it’s hard to base Fantasy NASCAR picks off of history here; there have been 35 other points-paying races since the last time we were here, and plenty of those were 1.5-mile venues as well. The drivers that have been strongest at those tracks this season should be strong this weekend, too.
High-Dollar DraftKings Drivers to Target at Homestead (over $9,500)
Kevin Harvick ($10,700) – If anybody is going to dominate the Ford EcoBoost 400 on Sunday, it’s going to be Kevin Harvick. Yes, he’s starting on the pole, which typically means he/she won’t be a very good pick in DraftKings, but Kevin Harvick is different. Qualifying isn’t really his strength, so when he qualifies up front, he has a damn good race car. In Practice #2 on Saturday, the #4 Chevrolet had the 8th-best ten-lap average, and in Happy Hour it was P1 on that chart. As usual, Harvick isn’t particularly great on the short runs, but we don’t anticipate having many of those this weekend. He could very easily lead 150+ laps on Sunday and end up in victory lane, too. If that happens, Harvick’s going to need to be in your DraftKings lineup.
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Carl Edwards ($9,700) – The cheapest of the “Championship Four” also probably has the best car going into Sunday’s Ford EcoBoost 400, so that’s good news. Cousin Carl is a two-time winner here at Homestead-Miami Speedway and is looking for his redemption victory here on Sunday after losing the championship to Tony Stewart here back in 2011. As far as this weekend, the #19 Toyota has been stout since the team unloaded it, and in Practice #2 on Saturday morning, Edwards had the best ten-lap average with the 3rd-fastest lap. In Happy Hour, he ranked 5th and 2nd on those two charts, respectively. It’s not very common for Carl Edwards to show that kind of speed during practice, so when he does, the competition should be concerned. Don’t be surprised if he leads quite a few laps and contends for the win this weekend.
Martin Truex, Jr. ($10,000) – Truex is actually available at a decent price point this weekend. Yes, $10,000 is still a big chunk of your DraftKings salary cap, but when you consider the fact that the #78 Toyota has consistently been the best car on the 1.5-mile race tracks this season, you could almost see it as a bargain. This weekend, Truex will roll off the grid from 6th when the Ford EcoBoost 400 goes green, but don’t be surprised to see him up there challenging for the lead during the first or second green flag run. If Harvick doesn’t lead the most laps this weekend, it’s probably going to be Truex. The #78 Toyota was the fastest car during Happy Hour on Saturday and Homestead has been one of Martin’s best tracks on the Sprint Cup Series circuit despite him never getting to victory lane here…yet.
Mid-Dollar DraftKings Drivers to Target at Homestead (between $7,500 and $9,500)
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Chase Elliott ($9,000) – The #24 Chevrolet has been super fast all weekend long, and it wouldn’t be that surprising if Chase Elliott was able to go out there and contend for the Ford EcoBoost 400 win here on Sunday. He’s never made a Sprint Cup start here at Homestead-Miami Speedway, but it’s not like this track is one that is super-unique like Pocono. As far as practice speeds go, Chase was 2nd-fastest in Practice #2 and wound up 5th-fastest in Happy Hour. In terms of ten-lap average, he ranked 3rd and 19th in those two sessions, respectively. The #24 team has been very strong on the intermediate tracks as of late and we fully expect that trend to continue here at Homestead on Sunday.
Kyle Larson ($8,800) – We expect a bunch of teams to own Kyle Larson this weekend, but when a driver his caliber starts back in 24th, that’s simply going to happen. The fastest way around Homestead-Miami Speedway is up against the wall on the top of the track, and if that fits anyone’s driving style in the Sprint Cup garage, it’s Kyle Larson. He’s made three career starts here at Homestead and has never finished worse than 15th–and we don’t anticipate that changing this weekend. Speed-wise, Larson wasn’t overly impressive during Practice #2 on Saturday morning, but in Happy Hour he had the 13th-fastest lap and the 2nd-best ten-lap average. As far as place differential potential, Kyle Larson is one of the best options this weekend to maximize those points.
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Kasey Kahne ($8,200) – The #5 Chevrolet has been pretty much garbage all weekend long, but we’d advise you to not fall for the trap: Kasey Kahne should have one of the higher base FPTS score on Sunday. He qualified back in 29th for this weekend’s Ford EcoBoost 400, so the place differential potential there is very high. Additionally, this #5 team has been top 10 strong for pretty much the last three months, and we don’t see that suddenly changing here at Homestead on Sunday. Kasey hasn’t had a top 10 finish at this track since the 2011 season but he has ended up inside the top 20 in seven of the last eight races here, and five of those were also top 15s. We expect the #5 team to change pretty much everything on this car before the race on Sunday and be much better during the race than they have looked so far this weekend.
Low-Dollar DraftKings Drivers to Target at Homestead (under $7,500)
Ty Dillon ($6,600) – This is a very high price to pay for a driver who has only made ten starts this season, but the potential for Ty Dillon to score 30+ FPTS on Sunday is actually not too far out of reach. In most of his Sprint Cup starts, Ty tends to qualify further back in the field–as he did this weekend (34th)–and then just log laps on race day and end up somewhere in the mid-20s. We expect the same to happen this weekend. He’s in the #95 Chevrolet this weekend, which Michael McDowell has raced to some impressive finishes as of late, and the younger Dillon brother actually did run this race last season (he finished 23rd). If he could somehow pull off a top 20 finish on Sunday, the $6,600 price tag will be well worth it for DraftKings owners. Ty was 26th-fastest in Practice #2 on Saturday but slowed down a bit during Happy Hour (36th).
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Paul Menard ($6,500) – Paul Menard has been anything but trustworthy this Fantasy NASCAR season, but when you get down in this price range, what more can you expect? This weekend the #27 team qualified back in 28th, but they should be able to improve a little bit on race day. Now the question becomes whether or not Menard will be able to get all the way up to the top 15? It’s not impossible, but don’t count on it. The good news is that in Happy Hour the #27 Chevrolet was 12th-fastest with the 15th-best ten-lap average, and in Practice #2, Menard was 7th on the ten-lap average chart. Additionally, he posted a career-best finish here at Homestead a couple of years ago (4th) and he has finished 21st or better in five of the last six races here. A 20th-place finish out of Menard on Sunday will net DraftKings owners 32 base FPTS.
Danica Patrick ($6,100) – Dollar-for-dollar, Danica Patrick could end up being one of the best options in DraftKings this weekend. She really performs at her best at the intermediate race tracks where she can just go out there and log laps. And if she’s able to stay on the lead lap throughout the race, Danica is usually good enough for a top 20 finish. Here at Homestead, she has made three career starts and has finished between 18th and 24th in each. Danica will start back in 30th for this year’s Ford EcoBoost 400 so that could easily turn into six or ten place differential FPTS before it’s all said and done. The #10 Chevrolet ranked 22nd on the ten-lap average chart during Happy Hour on Saturday.
You should expect to see plenty of “movers” during the Ford EcoBoost 400 on Sunday. The four championship-eligible drivers all qualified 9th or worse, so those drivers should move some of those that qualified up front down in the running order as the race goes on. Also, Homestead-Miami Speedway is a very old, worn out race track, so drivers should have ample opportunities to pass. The fastest way around the track, however, is going to be the high line, right next to the wall (hello Kyle Larson).
The categories we use for different drivers to avoid are as follows: 1.) Over-Qualified, or drivers that will start up front and probably won’t finish there, 2.) Over-Valued, or drivers that simply cost too much for the limited potential points they will earn or are going to be drafted by many other players, giving you an opportunity to fade them, and 3.) Flat-Out Avoid, or drivers that should simply be avoided at all costs. Most drivers will be categorized as either 1 or 2.
“Over-Qualified” DraftKings Drivers to Avoid for the Homestead Ford EcoBoost 400
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Brad Keselowski ($9,500) – The #2 team has had a very rough go of things here over the last couple of months, and we don’t like that kind of bad mojo in the final race of the season–especially when it’s a driver that is starting on the outside pole. With his 14th-place finish at Phoenix last weekend, Keselowski has now ended up 14th or 38th in four of the last five Sprint Cup races overall, with the only exception being that 2nd-place finish at Martinsville. We’re not sure if this #2 team is really testing things out for next season or what, but that kind of risk isn’t something we’re too fond of. Keselowski never really showed the speed during practice to back up his 2nd-place qualifying effort this weekend, but he should still be a top 10 threat on Sunday. However, as far as an option in DraftKings, you should know the rule by now: if he starts up front, he better lead a bunch of laps. We could see Keselowski leading zero this weekend.
Denny Hamlin ($8,600) – We had a hard time putting Denny Hamlin on the avoid list this weekend considering he’s so moderately priced, but chances are he’s only going to put up a low-30s FPTS score on Sunday, so he still won’t really be worth it. This #11 team definitely has the whole qualifying thing figured out, but as far as having that type of speed during the race itself, it’s still limited to the tracks that Denny Hamlin really likes. He’s been good for a top 10 finish at most venues, yes, but as far as taking that next step to a top 5 challenger and potential race winner, Hamlin’s not there yet. As far as the intermediate race tracks are concerned, Denny hasn’t had a top 5 finish on a “cookie cutter” venue since the Charlotte race back in May. That probably won’t change this weekend, especially in a race where the “Championship Four” should overtake most of the top positions by the end of the day.
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A.J. Allmendinger ($7,200) – Allmendinger was looking like a solid sleeper option this weekend until he went out and qualified 12th on Friday. That’s about the ceiling for him finish-wise as well, so while it is possible for A.J. to go out there and post a 30-point FPTS day on Sunday, it’s much more likely for him to wind up in the low-20s FPTS level when the checkered flag waves over this year’s Ford EcoBoost 400. The positive news for Allmendinger fans is that this #47 team has been running better than normal on the intermediate tracks as of late, and don’t forget that A.J. finished between 5th and 15th in each of his first four starts here at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Speed-wise, the #47 Chevrolet is probably fast enough to legitimately challenge for a 13th-to-15th-place finish on Sunday.
“Over-Valued” DraftKings Drivers to Avoid for the Homestead Ford EcoBoost 400
Alex Bowman ($7,400) – Alex Bowman should come back down to Earth in a big way this weekend. After leading the most laps and almost winning the race at Phoenix this weekend, Bowman looks like a top 20 car at best here at Homestead-Miami Speedway one week later. That’s not to say that he can’t make his way to a top 15 finish on Sunday, though; Bowman was 18th-fastest in Practice #2 on Saturday morning and then wound up 17th-best on the ten-lap average chart during Happy Hour. The #88 Chevrolet will roll off the grid from 19th when this finale gets going on Sunday but could end up with a mid-30s FPTS day. This isn’t an “avoid like the plague” designation, we just think that Bowman is over-valued this weekend–and his ownership percentage will probably be a bit higher thanks to his performance at Phoenix last weekend.
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Jamie McMurray ($8,000) – We like Jamie McMurray in other Fantasy NASCAR leagues this weekend, but as far as spending $8,000 on him in DraftKings? No thanks. The #1 Chevrolet will start from 15th when the Ford EcoBoost 400 goes green, and that’s about where we expect him to finish as well. In the last two races here at Homestead, McMurray has finished 13th and 5th, so there’s some potential there, but we didn’t see that kind of speed out of the #1 Chevrolet during practice on Saturday. Momentum-wise, McMurray has finished 19th or w0rse in three of the last five Sprint Cup races overall.
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The final race of the season is always an interesting one from the Fantasy NASCAR perspective. The four remaining championship drivers typically all finish up front here at Homestead, so most teams will play it safe and just load up on those guys. It’s no different in FOX Fantasy Auto this week. As of this post, over all four championship drivers (Joey Logano, Kyle Busch, Jimmie Johnson, and Carl Edwards) had ownership percentages of at least 50%, with Johnson leading the way at 72%. This gives you an opportunity to just go with the flow (if you’re a leader) or try a “Hail Mary” and avoid those higher-owned guys. We’re employing a mixed strategy here on Sunday, but if you’d like additional lineups, feel free to send us an email.
Phoenix 2 was one of our worst races of the season, as we scored just 124 points in FOX Fantasy Auto. We didn’t fall too far in the overall standings, though as our official Fantasy Racing Online team is now in 363rd. We hope to close out the season on a high note and end up inside the top 300 for the year.
FOX Fantasy Auto Picks for the Homestead Ford EcoBoost 400
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Jimmie Johnson ($10,300) – On Sunday, Jimmie Johnson has the opportunity to do something that most NASCAR drivers only dream of: clinch his seventh Sprint Cup Series championship. Johnson is already one of the best drivers of all time, but accomplishing this will have to eliminate any doubt that is left out there. As far as performing well under pressure, there’s probably no team-driver combination better in the Sprint Cup garage than this #48 crew, and that should show once again on Sunday. Johnson is going to start from back in 14th when the Ford EcoBoost 400 goes green, but that’s due to a little bad luck he had during qualifying. That #48 Chevrolet is fast enough to easily get to the top 5, if not the lead, in the early laps, though. Johnson is currently on a three-race streak of top 10 finishes here at Homestead and during Happy Hour this weekend he was 10th-fastest overall and 9th in terms of ten-lap average. We’re pretty happy with where we’re at in the standings, so we’re just going to join the masses here at put Jimmie Johnson in our lineup this weekend.
Kyle Larson ($11,500) – Due to his pretty high price this weekend, and the fact that so many of those playing FOX Fantasy Auto are focusing on the four championship drivers, Kyle Larson is relatively low in terms of ownership this weekend (11.3% at the time of this article). However, he has the potential to be one of the highest-scoring drivers this weekend. For whatever reason, Larson ended up qualifying 24th for this year’s Ford EcoBoost 400, but he should be able to make his way through the field as the race goes on on Sunday evening. Homestead is an old, worn-out race track, and the high line is going to be the fastest way around the track. And in case you didn’t know, that’s Larson’s preferred line. He’s never finished worse than 15th in three career starts here at Homestead-Miami Speedway and we don’t anticipate that changing this weekend. Larson should be able to put up a healthy 40+ fantasy points in FOX Fantasy Auto on Sunday.
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Martin Truex, Jr. ($10,200) – Martin Truex, Jr. doesn’t have much room for place differential points this weekend (he qualified 6th), but the #78 Toyota has enough speed to win this race, and if that happens, he’s going to be well worth the $10,200 investment. Plus, this gives you an opportunity to grab a top-tier driver that’s not one of the “Championship Four.” Homestead has long been known as one of Truex’s best tracks on the Sprint Cup circuit, if not his best. No, he’s never won here, but seven top 10s in eleven career starts is pretty impressive, especially when you think about the junk equipment that Truex used to race in. This weekend, he had one of the fastest cars in both practice sessions, but we weren’t too thrilled with his long run speed. With that being said, the #78 Toyota has been a “sure bet” on the 1.5-mile tracks this season, and that’s not suddenly going to change this weekend. Truex is a legitimate top 5 contender on Sunday.
Austin Dillon ($8,200) -Here’s a little outside-of-the-box pick, but why not? It’s the final race of the season, might as well have some fun and root for some drivers that you usually don’t pick. Austin Dillon qualified 17th for Sunday’s Ford EcoBoost 400, so if he’s able to pull off a top 10 finish, owners in the FOX Fantasy Auto game are looking at 38+ fantasy points out of him. And it wouldn’t be all that surprising if he was able to finish that high. The Richard Childress Racing teams have really improved on the intermediate race tracks as of late, and Austin posted a career-best finish of 14th in this race one year ago. This weekend, the #3 Chevrolet has shown flashes of speed, ranking 9th in ten-lap average during Practice #2 and then 4th on that chart in Happy Hour. Dillon didn’t rank very high on the overall speed charts, but we’re more concerned with long run speed than short run speed anyway.
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Carl Edwards ($9,100) – We’re probably going to have two of the championship contenders on our roster this weekend simply because Carl Edwards is so under-priced. At $9,100, he’s almost a must-own driver this weekend. Over 64% of teams have Cousin Carl in their lineup for Homestead (as of this post) and we expect that number to increase before lockdown on Sunday. Edwards is a two-time winner here at Homestead-Miami Speedway and has averaged a finish of 9.3 over twelve career starts here. In practice this weekend, the #19 Toyota was one of the fastest cars on the track, posting the best ten-lap average in Practice #2 before winding up 5th on that chart during Happy Hour. As far as “one fast lap,” Edwards was inside the top 5 on both practice session overall speed charts. He probably has the best car heading into Sunday’s Ford EcoBoost 400, and is definitely one of the favorites to win.
The final race of the season is pretty cut and dry in the Fantasy NASCAR world. As far as the Yahoo! Auto Racing game goes, you’re probably bound by the number of starts you have left with the top drivers in each group. And if you’re down to having to choose between which mid-tier driver to start in each group, you’re already on a contrarian strategy. If you have starts left, it’s going to be best to just roll with things as usual: start the best drivers you have left.
We ended up with 327 points at Phoenix 2 last weekend but didn’t gain a whole lot on the rest of the field. Heading into the finale at Homestead, we’re sitting in the 90th percentile overall. We hope to finish up a couple of percentage points with our picks this week.
Yahoo! A Group Pick and Final Rankings for Homestead
We said coming into the weekend that Kevin Harvick was going to be the best non-championship driver to go with, and that turned out true. The #4 Chevrolet is on the pole for Sunday’s Ford EcoBoost 400, and Harvick has a really good chance at leading the most laps this weekend as well. He was 8th-best in ten-lap average during Practice #2 this weekend and wound up P1 on that chart in Happy Hour. Homestead is also, statistically, Harvick’s best track. If you have him on your team this weekend, we think you have to start him.
Photo Credit: Chris Trotman/Getty Images
Our two A Group drivers are Jimmie Johnson and Joey Logano, and while we do see both of them potentially challenging for the win (obviously, that’s just what happens with this Chase format), we’re going to start the former. The #48 Chevrolet has been the one of the strongest cars on the intermediate race tracks as of late, and while Joey Logano does have a whole bunch of momentum right now, Jimmie Johnson looked better than him in both practice sessions on Saturday, so that sealed the deal for us. This Sunday, however, you can’t really go wrong with starting the three drivers above, or Kyle Busch. All four have top 5 potential. If you have any other A Group driver on your roster this weekend, then you probably didn’t listen to us earlier this week, so all we can do is wish you the best of luck.
Final A Group Rankings: (1) Kevin Harvick, (2) Jimmie Johnson, (3) Kyle Busch, (4) Joey Logano, (5) Brad Keselowski, (6) Matt Kenseth, (7) Denny Hamlin, (8) Kurt Busch
Yahoo! B Group Picks and Final Rankings for Homestead
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Our two B Group starters were pretty much set before this week even started, as we purposely saved our final starts with Carl Edwards and Martin Truex, Jr. for this race. They are the class of the B Group in Yahoo! Fantasy Auto Racing this weekend and either of those two could wind up in victory lane on Sunday. We do know that quite a few other teams didn’t save those starts like we did, though, so we’ll touch on a few of the other B Group drivers that have caught our eye this weekend.
The first one right off the bat is Ryan Newman, who qualified 3rd for Sunday’s Ford EcoBoost 400. He’s always ran well here at Homestead (three finishes of 7th or better in the last six races) and the #31 team seems to have found something on the intermediate race tracks over the last couple of months. Additionally, the #31 team backed up that qualifying speed with a couple of very solid practice sessions on Saturday, as Newman was in the top 11 on both ten-lap average charts. He could legitimately finish top 10 this weekend.
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Kyle Larson is on our roster this weekend but since we have Edwards and Truex to use he’s going to be sitting the bench. Larson qualified back in 24th, so there’s a little bit of risk in starting him on Sunday, but we anticipate that he’s going to have that high line working on Sunday and should make his way toward the front. He should be good for at least a top 15 finish…if he can keep the #42 Chevrolet off the wall. Larson had the 2nd-best ten-lap average in Happy Hour on Saturday.
The only two other B Group options that are viable this weekend (in our opinion) are Austin Dillon and Jamie McMurray. Austin qualified 17th for this year’s season finale and has a career-best finish of 14th at this track. He could better that this weekend, though, as the #3 Chevrolet was consistently fast in both practice sessions on Saturday and had the 3rd-best ten-lap average in Happy Hour. We don’t like McMurray as well as Dillon this weekend, but the #1 Chevrolet had solid top 10 speed in both practice sessions on Saturday and McMurray has finished 13th and 5th in the last two races at Homestead. This weekend he will roll off the starting grid from 15th.
Final B Group Rankings: (1) Carl Edwards, (2) Martin Truex, Jr., (3) Ryan Newman, (4) Kyle Larson, (5) Austin Dillon, (6) Jamie McMurray, (7) Tony Stewart, (8) A.J. Allmendinger, (9) Kasey Kahne, (10) Ricky Stenhouse, Jr., (11) Paul Menard, (12) Trevor Bayne, (13) Greg Biffle, (14) Danica Patrick, (15) Casey Mears, (16) Aric Almirola, (17) Clint Bowyer
Yahoo! C Group Pick and Final Rankings for Homestead
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The two best options in the C Group this weekend are, hands down, Chase Elliott and Ryan Blaney. However, because we are out of starts with the former, we’re going to have to go with the latter here on Sunday. If you do have a start left with Elliott, though, he’s a better choice, as that #24 Chevrolet could legitimately run top 5 on Sunday. Blaney doesn’t have too terrible of a car, though, as the #21 Ford was fast in both practice sessions on Saturday and even had the 3rd-best ten-lap average during Happy Hour. Ryan should be a top 15 car heading into the Ford EcoBoost 400 but might be able to squeak out a top 10 result depending on how the race plays out. As far as the other C Group drivers, there’s really no other great option. Alex Bowman should be your default starter if you’re completely out of Elliott and Blaney starts, but he might struggle to crack the top 15 this weekend. One guy that did show a surprising amount of speed this weekend was Brian Scott: in addition to qualifying 22nd, he also ranked 16th in ten-lap average during that final practice session on Saturday. However, we still wouldn’t recommend starting Scott no matter what your start situation is in the C Group.
Final C Group Rankings: (1) Chase Elliott, (2) Ryan Blaney, (3) Alex Bowman, (4) Chris Buescher, (5) Michael McDowell, (6) Ty Dillon, (7) Landon Cassill, (8) David Ragan, (9) Brian Scott, the rest
Practice and qualifying for this year's Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway are scheduled to take place on Saturday evening, but the weather forecast...
