Dover International Speedway is another short track where one mistake can ruin your entire day. However, unlike Loudon last weekend, Dover tries to race like an intermediate race track, and with that comes some of the best racing all year, at least in our opinion. The Sprint Cup Series teams got limited practice this weekend and the starting lineup was set by points, so anyone that tells you they know exactly what’s going to happen today is a liar. Looking at the last three fall races here at “The Monster Mile,” each of those have been dominated by one driver (meaning at least half of the race led).  We don’t see that happening today but it’s possible.

This week we are in a major time crunch, so the Lineups below aren’t as easy on the eyes as previous weeks. If you haven’t already, please read our Drivers to Target at Dover 2 and Drivers to Avoid at Dover 2 posts.

Lineup #1

Kyle Busch was one of the few drivers that focused on race trim in both practice sessions this weekend. He starts up in 3rd today and if he can get to the front early, the #18 Toyota could easily lead 100+ laps. This Lineup is fading Kevin Harvick, so if he has a bad (or even mediocre) day, this should be a great one. We’re not totally confident in David Ragan but he has some great potential at a low price.

1. Kyle Busch
2. Kyle Larson
3. Jimmie Johnson
4. Kasey Kahne
5. Ryan Newman
6. David Ragan

Lineup #2

If the last five races are any indication, Kevin Harvick is going to have a dominant race car today and should be the driver who wins. He starts 6th and has a car that can lead a bunch of laps. So while his $10,900 salary is extraordinarily high, he’s probably going to be worth it.

1. Kevin Harvick
2. Jimmie Johnson
3. Jeff Gordon
4. Jamie McMurray
5. Kasey Kahne
6. Ty Dillon

Lineup #3

Martin Truex, Jr. is another driver you have to watch out for in terms of laps led. He had one of the best cars here at Dover last time and that #78 team has been on fire lately. The only downside is that he starts 2nd for today’s Citizen Soldier 400, so if he would have problems that’s going to be a bunch of negative FPTS for place differential.

1. Martin Truex, Jr.
2. Jimmie Johnson
3. Chase Elliott
4. Kasey Kahne
5. Clint Bowyer
6. Paul Menard

Lineup #4

This Lineup doesn’t get any of the very high-dollar drivers ($10,000+) so for this one to be successful we have to hope that someone like Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch, or Martin Truex, Jr. doesn’t dominate the race today. While it’s certainly possible that one of those guys will log a bunch of laps led, it’s not a guarantee.

1. Kyle Larson
2. Matt Kenseth
3. Jimmie Johnson
4. Ryan Blaney
5. Kasey Kahne
6. David Ragan

Lineup #5

Brad Keselowski is on the pole, and even though he made our Drivers to Avoid list, we think it’s best to cover all of your bases in case he does have a car that will lead 100+ laps today. He’s also very hard to pass up at that cheap $9,100 price.

1. Kevin Harvick
2. Brad Keselowski
3. Chase Elliott
4. Kasey Kahne
5. Clint Bowyer
6. Danica Patrick

This weekend’s Citizen Soldier 400 might be one of the hardest we’ve had to handicap in quite a while. Qualifying was rained out on Friday, and while the Sprint Cup teams did practice that day, not many of them did race runs. There was then one practice session on Saturday morning, but the Happy Hour practice session got rained out. So we’re entering a race day with very little practice data to go off of, at a track where track position matters enough that the best car might not be able to make its way through the field very easily. We’re going to have to rely on historical data a lot this weekend.

High-Dollar DraftKings Drivers to Target at Dover 2 (over $9,500)

Kevin Harvick ($10,900) – When you analyze the last five races here at Dover, Kevin Harvick has undoubtedly had the one of the best race cars in each and every race. He has led 810 laps over that five-race span, and to put the impressiveness of that into perspective, Jimmie Johnson is second in that category with 299 laps led. And because of the limited practice time this weekend, Harvick should have an advantage over the rest of the field, and it wouldn’t surprise us one bit if he went out and led a whole bunch of laps in Sunday’s Citizen Soldier 400. The #4 team was also one of the few who worked on race runs during Friday’s practice session, and that should help as well. Harvick will start 6th on Sunday, so there’s room for a few place differential points, but we need him to lead a bunch of laps to make that $10,900 salary worth it–and we think it will happen.

Kyle Busch ($10,300) – We’re going to be a little different than everyone else this weekend and look at Kyle Busch over Martin Truex, Jr. Now, we still think that Truex is going to be a solid pick in DraftKings on Sunday, but Kyle Busch is a little bit cheaper and he might score more FPTS before the Citizen Soldier 400 is all said and done. Despite having a career average finish of just 15.3 at this track, Kyle Busch has led 1,037 laps in his twenty-three starts at “The Monster Mile,” which is 4th-most among all active drivers. In five of his starts (21.7%), Rowdy has led at least 90 laps. This weekend, Kyle Busch has the opportunity to lead a bunch of laps again, as the #18 crew were one of the few teams that focused on race runs in both practice sessions. Additionally, Busch finished 2nd in this race one year ago and has finished inside the top 10 in each of the last six fall events here at Dover.

Kyle Larson ($9,900) – Thanks to his less-than-stellar finishes in the first two Chase races, Kyle Larson will start Sunday’s race at Dover International Speedway from 12th, which instantly makes him a driver to target in DraftKings despite the high salary of $9,900. Dover is Larson’s best track on the Sprint Cup circuit and when we raced here back in May he posted a career-best finish of 2nd after leading 85 laps. What makes that even more impressive is that Kyle started way back in 23rd that day. Larson seemed happy with his race car during the two practice sessions this weekend, and after posting the fastest lap in Practice #1, he wound up 7th on the speed chart in Practice #2. Looking for Larson to challenge for a top 5 finish on Sunday.

Mid-Dollar DraftKings Drivers to Target at Dover 2 (between $7,500 and $9,500)

Jimmie Johnson ($9,300) – Talk about under-priced. Jimmie Johnson has been to victory lane on ten separate occasions here at Dover, and while he hasn’t been great in the last two races here (finishes of 25th and 41st), “Six Time” does six top 5 results in the last nine races at this track and has ended up inside the top 10 in thirteen of the last seventeen. In Practice #2 this weekend, Johnson was happy with how his car was handling but the #48 Chevrolet was lacking in the speed department. However, with the notes that Chad Knaus has at this place, we wouldn’t be surprised if Johnson has a rocket ship come race day. He’ll start from 8th when the Citizen Soldier 400 goes green, and at $9,300, he’s almost a must-own in DraftKings this weekend. Jimmie Johnson is definitely a driver to build your lineups around on Sunday.

Chase Elliott ($8,900) – Despite his disappointing 13th-place finish last weekend, Chase Elliott once again had one of the strongest cars in the field at Loudon. Now we’re on to Dover, a track where Chase has made just one Sprint Cup start. However, that start resulted in a 3rd-place finish, and it really wouldn’t be that surprising if he wound up inside the top 5 once again this weekend. Chase wound up with the 6th-best lap in Practice #1 on Friday and then ended up 14th-fastest in Practice #2 with the 2nd-best ten-lap average. It seems like the speed is there for the #24 team this weekend, now it’s just going to come down to how the race plays out on Sunday. Elliott will start from 9th when the Citizen Soldier 400 goes green.

Kasey Kahne ($7,600) – Another wildly under-priced driver this weekend is Kasey Kahne, who we don’t have many bad things to say about. He’ll start Sunday’s race from 17th, but when the checkered flag waves on the Citizen Soldier 400, Kahne should finish much higher than that. In addition to having finishes of 6th or better in each of the last three Dover races, Kasey also now has four straight top 10 finishes after his very impressive 9th-place run at Loudon last weekend. Eventually he’s going to have a very bad week and ruin a lot of Fantasy NASCAR rosters, but until then it’s best to just roll with Kasey Kahne. We could see him finishing top 10 this weekend.

Low-Dollar DraftKings Drivers to Target at Dover 2 (under $7,500)

Clint Bowyer ($7,100) – This is going to be a risky pick if you go with Clint Bowyer on Sunday, but isn’t that how it is with every low-dollar DraftKings driver? The thing with Bowyer is that he has now finished 22nd in each of the last four Sprint Cup races overall and his record here at Dover is quite impressive; in twenty-one career starts at “The Monster Mile,” Bowyer has averaged a result of 11.9, and that includes his 12th-place finish here back in May while driving his terrible HScott Motorsports Chevrolet. He has now ended up 14th or better in each of the last eleven Dover races, and while that streak is going to very hard for Bowyer to continue on Sunday, a top 20 isn’t out of the question. The #15 Chevrolet ranked 6th-fastest in Saturday’s practice session, for what it’s worth.

Ty Dillon ($5,900) – We expect Ty Dillon to have a decently high ownership percentage this weekend simply because his potential is quite high on Sunday. First of all, he’s driving the #95 Chevrolet, which it should be mentioned finished 20th with Michael McDowell behind the wheel last time we raced here at Dover. Additionally, Ty is going to start back in 30th when the Citizen Soldier 400 goes green on Sunday, and considering he’s been a solid top 25 pick (at least) in the races that he has ran this season, we’re looking at a possible 30+ FPTS day out of a driver that is on the lower end of the salary scale. It’s nowhere near a guarantee but the potential is there for Ty Dillon this weekend. For what it’s worth, he’s finished inside the top 10 in five of his seven Xfinity starts here at Dover.

Danica Patrick ($6,100) – Believe it or not, Danica Patrick is quite under-priced this weekend. She actually runs really well at 1-mile race tracks and hasn’t finished worse than 21st in the last three Dover races. That includes her 13th-place run here back in May as well as her 15th-place finish in the 2015 May event. This weekend, Danica will roll off the grid from 24th when the Citizen Soldier 400 goes green, but if she’s able to get up into the top 15 again she makes an excellent option at her $6,100 price tag. With that being said, we only see Danica finishing that high if there’s a lot of wrecks on race day, and we’re not a fan of having to rely on that. If she fits in your roster, though, Danica should be good for around 30 FPTS on Sunday.

David Ragan ($5,500) – If you want to reach really deep this weekend, David Ragan is going to be your guy. He’s going to start way back in 32nd when Sunday’s Citizen Soldier 400 goes green, but we’re expecting Ragan and this #23 team to move up quite a bit as the race goes on. If you remember back to the race here in May, Ragan wound up finishing 17th after starting 27th, and he has now wound up 22nd or better in each of the last three Dover races. Last year he was in the #55 Toyota for Michael Waltrip Racing, but that wasn’t exactly top tier equipment either. Overall, Ragan has a career average finish of 23.9 in twenty starts here at “The Monster Mile,” and if he can finish that high here on Sunday, DraftKings owners are looking at a 28+ FPTS day out of a very cheap driver.

Dover International Speedway is another 1-mile race track, but it is very different from Loudon, where the Sprint Cup Series was at last weekend. Dover, which is nicknamed “The Monster Mile,” has a bunch of banking in the turns as well as on the straightaways, and it tries its best to race like an intermediate speedway. Sunday’s race is a 400-lap event, so we’re definitely going to need to target some dominators in DraftKings. Track position was very important here last time around, but that doesn’t exactly mean starting position. In fact, over the last five Dover races, just 18% of top 5 qualifiers have finished inside the top 10. However, with qualifying getting rained out on Friday, that means that all of the Chasers are starting up front, so we should see quite a few of those guys stay out front.

The categories we use for different drivers to avoid are as follows: 1.) Over-Qualified, or drivers that will start up front and probably won’t finish there, 2.) Over-Valued, or drivers that simply cost too much for the limited potential points they will earn or are going to be drafted by many other players, giving you an opportunity to fade them, and 3.) Flat-Out Avoid, or drivers that should simply be avoided at all costs. Most drivers will be categorized as either 1 or 2.

“Over-Qualified” DraftKings Drivers to Avoid for the Dover 2 Citizen Soldier 400

Brad Keselowski ($9,100) – Track position was a major factor the last time we ran at Dover, and nobody is in a better position to start with that on Sunday than Brad Keselowski. However, we’re not confident that the Blue Deuce is going to be able to stay up front for most of the race, and that’s what it’s going to take for Keselowski to be a viable option in DraftKings this weekend. BK does have five top 10 finishes in the last eight races here at “The Monster Mile,” but he’s never led more than 78 laps in one race here and hasn’t finished better than 6th in his last three attempts. We do think that Keselowski has a chance to score another top 5 here on Sunday but we’re just not fully confident that he’s going to be able to make up for the lost place differential FPTS with laps led and fastest laps points. At that low (for him) $9,100 price point, it’s going to be extremely difficult to avoid Keselowski on Sunday, but we think that is the best move to do strategically.

Matt Kenseth ($9,700) – Unfortunately, Matt Kenseth isn’t really a driver that’s goes out and absolutely dominates races. Typically, if he has a race winning car, he winds up near the front about halfway through the event and then works on it from there. So while we do really like Matt Kenseth as an overall Fantasy NASCAR pick this weekend, we don’t see him as a great option in DraftKings this weekend and that’s because he starts from 4th and there are quite a few other drivers that we like to lead laps more than him. So unless Kenseth is able to post a bunch of fastest laps on Sunday, he probably won’t put up a huge FPTS score. Now we’re not telling you to completely avoid the #20 Toyota this weekend, we just wouldn’t build all of our rosters around Kenseth. After all, he won here at Dover back in May and has finished 7th or better in five of the last six races at “The Monster Mile.” As far as DraftKings goes, however, he’s not the best pick strategically.

Chris Buescher ($6,400) – This should have to go without saying but thanks to qualifying getting cancelled this weekend, Chris Buescher is one of the worst DraftKings options this weekend. He did finish 18th when we last raced here (back in May), but even if he is able to replicate that finish on Sunday, we’re still looking at just 26 base FPTS out of him. While that is a decent amount for a driver in this price range, we have a hard time seeing Buescher actually finishing inside the top 20 on Sunday unless this race turns into an attrition event. This #34 team has came back to earth in a major way as of late, with five finishes of 24th or worse in the last seven Sprint Cup races overall. We’d consider Buescher if he started back in 30th this weekend, but unfortunately that’s not the case.

“Over-Valued” DraftKings Drivers to Avoid for the Dover 2 Citizen Soldier 400

Carl Edwards ($10,100) – Carl Edwards has the nickname “Concrete Carl” for a reason, but as far as his efforts here at Dover, he isn’t worthy of that label. Edwards hasn’t finished better than 11th in any of the last seven races here at “The Monster Mile,” although that streak may come to an end here on Sunday. Still, in order for Edwards to be worth that huge $10,100 salary hit, he’s going to have to lead quite a few laps and get quite a few fastest laps in as well, and we don’t see that happening. The #19 Toyota was one of the few cars that showed speed in both practice sessions this weekend and if nothing crazy happens on Sunday, we could see Carl getting his ninth top 5 finish at Dover. However, he’s not worth the risk in DraftKings, in our opinion.

Joey Logano ($9,400) – We have learned over the last few years to never count out Joey Logano on race day. With that being said, we’re not overly confident in this #22 team right now, especially after their lackluster day at Loudon last weekend. The Penske Fords were slow all weekend long in New Hampshire, and while Logano’s teammate, Brad Keselowski, was still able to get a top 5 finish, Joey wasn’t as lucky. This weekend at Dover, it seems like the #22 team’s speed struggles have continued, and we don’t like that at all. Logano will start from 5th when this weekend’s Citizen Soldier 400 goes green, and while we do still see him as a top 10 threat, that’s not going to be good enough to warrant a DraftKings roster spot. Logano hasn’t finished better than 10th in the last three Dover races, but before that he had a four-race streak of finishes 8th or better.

Denny Hamlin ($9,500) – Denny Hamlin simply isn’t that good of a driver here at Dover, and considering the Sprint Cup teams got very little track time this weekend, that doesn’t bode well for him on Sunday. Obviously you can never count out this #11 team, but we’re not huge fans of drivers that has just one top 5 finish in the last twelve Dover races (like Denny does). Additionally, Hamlin’s career average finish of 18.6 here is nothing to ride home about, and his top 10 finish percentage of 33.3% (seven in twenty-one starts) isn’t great either. Denny isn’t going to go out and dominate this race on Sunday and doesn’t have much room for place differential FPTS either, considering he starts 7th. We’d recommend going with someone else in this price range.

“Flat-Out Avoid” DraftKings Drivers for the Dover 2 Citizen Soldier 400

Tony Stewart ($8,200) – With his 23rd-place finish at Loudon last weekend, Tony Stewart has now finished 16th or worse in each of the last six Sprint Cup races, and five of those races have also ended with Smoke outside of the top 20. And honestly, with each passing week, it seems like Stewart’s great finishes from June through August were a total fluke, and let’s not forget that he would have never made the Chase if Denny Hamlin didn’t “screw up” in the final turn at Sonoma. Going into Sunday’s Citizen Soldier 400, Tony Stewart is on the outside looking in as far as advancing in the Chase, and he’s going to need a win (or some major luck) to move on…and that’s probably not going to happen: Smoke has finished 20th or worse in seven of the last eleven Dover races. We can’t see any reason to take Tony Stewart in Fantasy NASCAR this weekend, especially in DraftKings at his decently-high $8,200 salary.