For Sunday’s Pure Michigan 400 at Michigan International Speedway, we think that there are only going to be a couple of drivers that could dominate the laps led category–Joey Logano and Kevin Harvick. Therefore, if you’re going to play many rosters, the best strategy is going to be to focus on one of two of those guys and then fill in from there. Below you will find some of the DraftKings teams we have put together for Sunday’s race and a small description for any possible strategy play we may be taking with it.
Lineup #1
This lineup looks great on paper heading into Sunday as long as Joey Logano can dominate the race. It’s built on the premise that what happened last time at Michigan will probably happen again. Brad Keselowski and Kyle Larson should get us plenty of place differential points, and we’re hoping Chase Elliott can replicate his 2nd-place run here from the fall. This lineup is a nice mix between confidence and risk.
As we mentioned in our DraftKings Drivers to Target for Michigan 2 article, the three best drivers this week are also the three most expensive–Kevin Harvick, Joey Logano, and Brad Keselowski. With this roster, we were able to fit those three on, essentially replacing Chase Elliott with Kevin Harvick and replacing Kyle Larson with Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. (from Lineup #1). In order for this roster to pan our, it’s going to have to be a split race (as far as laps led) between Logano and Harvick.
Along with Brad Keselowski, another driver that has great place differential potential is Kurt Busch. He starts back in 19th but should be a top 10 car when it’s all said and done here on Sunday. This is once again just a slight variation to Lineup #1 from earlier, essentially switching Chase Elliott for Kurt Busch and replacing Kyle Larson with Tony Stewart. The upside is higher in Lineup #1 but this Lineup #3 is a little on the safer side.
This is the ultimate “fade” lineup. There’s lots of buzz surrounding Jimmie Johnson this weekend, as the six-time champion has looked faster than he has in pretty much the last three months. He starts on the outside pole on Sunday, and if something were to happen to Joey Logano and Kevin Harvick, you have to consider the #48 as one of the cars to beat. There’s not a whole lot of love for Denny Hamlin this week, but that #11 team is on fire right now and Denny finished 5th in this race one year ago. His $8,900 salary is actually pretty nice, too, for a potential top 5 run.
When you consider this aerodynamic package the Sprint Cup cars are using this weekend, we haven’t really seen it much. They ran it here back in the June race and then had a variation of it at the All Star Race and at Kentucky. A couple of drivers that fared well at Kentucky were Jamie McMurray and Greg Biffle. The success of this lineup is going to depend on the #16 team’s result of gambling (you know they’re going to do it, they always do) as well as hoping McMurray doesn’t fall back too far. He typically runs pretty well here at Michigan, though. Also, there’s enough money left over for either Chase Elliott, Kyle Larson, or Tony Stewart (or anyone lower than that, really). Our gut says Kyle Larson is the best choice.
NEW LINEUP ADDED AT 10:00 AM. We can call this the Ford Lineup. Up top we have the Penske Fords of Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski, who should both put up a bunch of points, as well as Jimmie Johnson. Once again this roster is depending on the #48 team hard, and with how that team has performed lately, it’s very risky. But you know what they say, high risk, high reward. On the lower end, we have all three Roush-Fenway Fords. If all three of those guys can come home with a top 20 today, this is going to be a good roster.
Last week the Sprint Cup Series was at the short, half-mile track in Bristol, and this week they’re at the big, 2-mile track in Michigan. However, the strategy for DFS players should remain relatively the same, believe it or not. The last two races here at MIS have seen the two pole winners–Joey Logano and Matt Kenseth–lead 71% of the laps ran and also both go to victory lane. Passing here at Michigan isn’t as easy as you would think, so targeting place differential points solely this week may not be the best move. With that being said, there are a few drivers that should make their way through the field on race day, so having a nice mix of lap leaders, finishers, and “movers” should give you a nice score in DraftKings this week.
High-Dollar DraftKings Drivers to Target at Michigan 2
($9,500 or above)
Photo Credit: Chris Trotman/NASCAR via Getty Images
Kevin Harvick ($10,700) – Unfortunately, the three best DraftKings drivers this weekend are also the three most expensive, and it starts with Kevin Harvick. Now the question becomes whether or not he’s going to put up enough points on Sunday to justify that large salary. The #4 Chevrolet will roll off the grid from the 4th-place starting spot for this weekend’s Pure Michigan 400, and Harvick definitely has a race car that is capable of winning this thing. However, to justify that salary, he needs to lead quite a few laps, and he’s going to have to get through Joey Logano to do so. Harvick typically has great long run cars on the intermediate tracks so that could definitely play into an advantage as well. As far as finish goes, “Happy” has ended up inside the top 5 in six of the last seven Michigan races and should end up there once again here on Sunday.
Joey Logano ($10,400) – It’s looking like it’s going to be the Joey Logano show once again this weekend. His crew chief, Todd Gordon, said during Saturday’s first practice session that they didn’t even want to practice, that the car was that good. Add on the fact that Logano is starting on the pole for Sunday’s Pure Michigan 400 and he’s looking like a must-draft here in DraftKings. Joey won the race here from the pole back in June and also got to victory lane at Michigan back in 2013, also after starting from the pole. Additionally, the top qualifiers in five of the last six races here in the Irish Hills have finished either 1st or 2nd, and it should end up being six of the last seven when the checkered flag waves here on Sunday. Logano wasn’t great on the practice charts during Saturday’s two sessions, but we’re not worried about that at all. Whenever this #22 Ford has good speed off the truck, the rest of the garage area needs to watch out.
Photo Credit: Robert Laberge/Getty Images
Brad Keselowski ($10,200) – From a place differential perspective, Brad Keselowski is probably your best option this weekend. Whether or not he’s worth drafting at the $10,200 price tag, however, is nowhere near a guarantee, but it’s close–kind of like his record here at Michigan International Speedway. Keselowski has started 15th and 14th in the last two races here and has ended up finishing 4th and 9th (respectively) in those two events. In other words, don’t be too concerned about his 18th-place starting spot this weekend. This is Brad’s home race track and he’s currently on a five-race streak of top 10 finishes here. Additionally, he hasn’t posted a result worse than 13th here in the Irish Hills since the 2011 season, and that’s not going to change this weekend. The only bad thing we have to say about Keselowski this weekend is that he doesn’t lead a whole lot of laps here, so after his finish and place differential FPTS on Sunday, that’s probably about the ceiling for this guy. Still, those two combined should be around 52 total. Brad is dying for a win here at Michigan but it’s probably not going to happen this weekend.
Mid-Dollar DraftKings Drivers to Target at Michigan 2
(between $7,000 and $9,500)
Kurt Busch ($9,100) – Another guy with great place differential potential this weekend is Kurt Busch, who ended up 19th after the second round of qualifying on Friday. Apparently overnight, however, this #41 team found the speed they’ve had for much of the season, as Kurt wound up 4th on the speed chart in Practice #2 on Saturday morning and 6th-fastest in Happy Hour. Flashing back to the June race here at Michigan, Busch wound up finishing 10th in that event, and we’re expecting a similar run out of him here on Sunday in the Pure Michigan 400. One downside to Kurt Busch is that he has just one finish better than 10th in the last nine Sprint Cup races overall, but the Chevrolets as a whole have shown a lot of speed here this weekend, and we think that’s really going to show on Sunday during the race.
Photo Credit: Daniel Shirey/NASCAR via Getty Images
Kyle Larson ($8,500) – As usual, Kyle Larson is the ultimate risk/reward choice this weekend, as he’s probably going to challenge for the win or wreck out trying. This team has just three races left until the cutoff for NASCAR’s playoffs, and pretty much the only way they’re going to get in is with a victory. Luckily for them, Larson is pretty good at this track. He came home 3rd in the June race here earlier this season and that makes it three finishes of 13th or better in five career starts for him in the Irish Hills. As far as practice goes this weekend, the #42 Chevrolet was 5th-fastest in Saturday’s morning session and then ranked P8 in Happy Hour (along with the best ten-lap average). Larson will roll off the grid from 12th when we get going here on Sunday, which opens up the door to some place differential points if he can put together a whole race. He definitely has the speed to make some noise in the 2016 Pure Michigan 400.
Jamie McMurray ($7,600) – You might be giving away some place differential points if you have Jamie McMurray on your team this weekend (he qualified 8th) but the driver of the #1 Chevrolet is very solid here at Michigan International Speedway and is pretty under-valued in DraftKings this weekend. Overall, McMurray hasn’t finished worse than 16th in the last five Michigan races and that shouldn’t change this weekend either. This #1 team is really putting together some good finishes as of late–four top 10s in the last six races overall–and that’s really not surprising considering how well Kyle Larson (teammate) is running. In Practice #2 on Saturday, Jamie was 19th on the overall speed chart and ranked 5th in ten-lap average. In Happy Hour, he was 13th and 6th, respectively. The fact that this team was working on long runs on Saturday tells me they have a pretty good race car for Sunday’s race and were just dialing it in.
Low-Dollar DraftKings Drivers to Target at Michigan 2
(under $7,000)
Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. ($6,700) – This was the only halfway-decent driver to not make the second round of qualifying on Friday, so if you’re looking for a decent option to pick up some place differential points on Sunday, Stenhouse is your man (he starts 29th). The track history for him is not so good here at Michigan International Speedway–currently Ricky is on a three-race streak of finishes of 25th or worse–but there are some things to like about him that make him a viable game on Sunday. First, Stenhouse has been performing well (relatively speaking) not only this season, but recently: he’s coming off of that 2nd-place finish at Bristol last week and has ended up 12th or better in four of the last seven races overall. Additionally, it’s not like Stenhouse has never ran well here at Michigan; in his first four starts at MIS, Ricky posted finishes of 16th, 19th, 27th, and 15th. As said before, this is a gamble pick, but the potential for a pretty big score is there. Also, for what it’s worth, at Fontana earlier this year–another 2-mile race track–the #17 Ford came home 5th after starting 18th.
Photo Credit: NASCAR Media
Trevor Bayne ($6,300) – We were a little disappointed when Trevor Bayne qualified 24th here on Friday, but there’s still some room for place differential points. The best thing about this guy is that DraftKings hasn’t yet bumped up his salary, which is kind of surprising considering Bayne has posted at least 37 FPTS in five of the last seven races. He has also finished better than he started in all but two of the last ten Sprint Cup races overall. From a DraftKings perspective, this kid is stud. Overall, the Roush-Fenway Racing Fords are all vastly improved this season, but there’s still quite a few people that are afraid of putting them on their Fantasy NASCAR rosters. Don’t be like those people. Bayne wound up finishing 15th here back in June and ended up 9th in the spring race here last season. The #6 Ford doesn’t have the most speed in it heading into Sunday but don’t be surprised if Trevor comes home with a mid-teens finish in this year’s Pure Michigan 400.
Landon Cassill ($5,600) – It’s going to be hard to put together a DraftKings roster this weekend without a very low-dollar driver on it, and while a lot of other experts are looking at David Ragan to fill that spot–thanks to his three finishes of 24th or better in the last four Michigan races–we’re gravitating toward a potentially better (and cheaper) option in Landon Cassill. This #38 team actually hasn’t been running too terribly here as of late, with three finishes of 23rd or better in the last four Sprint Cup races overall. Here at Michigan, Cassill ended up finishing 25th back in the June race (after starting 28th), and don’t forget that he wound up 16th at Fontana earlier this season, which is another 2-mile race track. Cassill also starts one spot worse than Ragan this weekend, as he qualified back in 33rd. When you get down to these types of drivers, it’s all about timing on race day and a little bit of luck. We think Cassill looked the best among these very low-dollar drivers this weekend and he could have top 25 potential on Sunday depending on how many other cars wreck or have mechanical issues.
Although qualifying up front is a very good thing here at Michigan International Speedway, it’s not a guarantee of success on race day. For example, when we raced here back in June, there were a few drivers that either wrecked out or had mechanical issues and ended up ruining a bunch of DraftKings rosters, including Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin, and Dale Earnhardt, Jr. Now obviously those kind of issues are almost impossible to predict, but there are still a few drivers that it would be best to avoid with this weekend’s Pure Michigan 400. Races at this track are typically very clear-cut with minimal surprises, and nothing should be different on Sunday.
We are sticking with our categories for different drivers to avoid: 1.) Over-Qualified, or drivers that qualified up front and probably won’t finish there, 2.) Over-Valued, or drivers that simply cost too much for the limited potential points they will earn or are going to be drafted by many other players, giving you an opportunity to fade them, and 3.) Flat-Out Avoid, or drivers that should simply be avoided at all costs. Most drivers will be categorized as either 1 or 2.
“Over-Qualified” DraftKings Drivers to Avoid for the Pure Michigan 400
Photo Credit: Rey Del Rio/Getty Images
Jimmie Johnson ($9,300) – The problem with Jimmie Johnson qualifying 2nd this weekend is that he’s going to have to lead quite a few laps in order to make him worthy of a roster spot. Unfortunately, Joey Logano is on the pole and it’s looking like we’re about to see some more domination by that #22 team. So while Johnson looks like he has more speed this weekend than he has in the last two or three months, it’s hard to recommend him for your DraftKings team. In addition to that, taking the #48 Chevrolet is still an incredibly risky decision, and while that’s usually what it takes to put a great team together with these weekly DFS games, there’s probably an 85% chance that it’s not going to work out with Johnson this weekend. He’s boom or bust here at Michigan International Speedway, and six of the last eight races have been bust for “Six Time.” He did get the win here back in 2014 but that’s one of just five top 5 finishes in twenty-nine career starts here for Johnson, and his average finish of 16.8 in the Irish Hills is nothing to get excited about. On a positive note, the #48 Chevrolet had good long run speed in both practice sessions on Saturday and JJ wound up 3rd-fastest in that Happy Hour practice session.
Ryan Blaney ($7,400) – When you combine speed, an unsteady, young driver, and a relatively low price point, you have the perfect storm for a potentially bad Fantasy NASCAR pick. The fact of the matter is, however, many people are going to fall for this trap this weekend. Ryan Blaney has shown flashes of running well this season, and we all remember the other rookie (Chase Elliott) having a great run here at Michigan back in June. However, let’s not forget that the #21 Ford hasn’t finished better than 10th since the Dover race way back in May, and Blaney was just 16th-fastest on the Happy Hour speed chart Saturday. He’s a nice (albeit) risky pick in other leagues this weekend, but as far as DraftKings goes, Blaney’s 7th-place qualifying effort really limits his FPTS potential. He started 5th and finished 17th in the first Michigan race this season.
“Over-Valued” DraftKings Drivers to Avoid for the Pure Michigan 400
Photo Credit: Patrick Smith/Getty Images
Matt Kenseth ($9,700) – None of the Joe Gibbs Racing Toyotas look stellar this weekend, and let’s not forget that Carl Edwards was the only Toyota to crack the top 10 here at Michigan back in June. As far as Matt Kenseth goes this weekend, it might look like he has some place differential FPTS potential on Sunday, but that’s probably going to be very limited. The #20 Toyota will roll off the grid from 13th when this race gets going, and although Kenseth is a three-time winner here at Michigan International Speedway, he typically only runs well here when he qualifies near the front–at least as of late. Four of the last six races at this track have ended with Kenseth in 14th-place or worse, and while it’s weird thinking of him as a mid-teens car, that’s probably about the ceiling for this #20 Toyota on Sunday. This team is currently on a three-race streak of double-digit finishes and Kenseth has ended up 14th or worse in five of the last nine Sprint Cup races overall.
Chris Buescher ($6,600) – Okay, so we were wrong about Chris Buescher at Bristol last week, as he actually turned out to be a pretty nice option. But, unlike that race, Sunday’s Pure Michigan 400 isn’t going to turn into a game of Survivor. Wrecks are few and far between at Michigan International Speedway events, and that means you need to have a very good race car to make your way through the field. And while Buescher might actually have a top 20-capable car on Sunday, that’s not going to do much for you in DraftKings. He qualified 21st so right there went any potential place differential points. The last time we were here at Michigan, Buescher scored 27 FPTS after starting 22nd and finishing 20th. And while that’s not a terrible score out of a lower-tier driver like him, Chris’s salary has shot up to $6,600 now, and he’s simply not worth that kind of money–especially with how unreliable he is as a Fantasy NASCAR pick. With all of that being said, if you’re able to put together a roster that Buescher fits and completes with his salary, he is one of the better options in this price range.
Photo Credit: Brian Lawdermilk/NASCAR via Getty Images
Alex Bowman ($8,100) – File this guy in the “Over-Qualified” list as well. We wouldn’t mind seeing Alex Bowman have a good run here on Sunday–and we actually hope he does because he’s on some of our other teams–but really the chances of him finishing close to where he starts (6th) are slim to none. This #88 Chevrolet has a lot of speed in it (Bowman was top 10 in both practice sessions on Saturday), but this is just his second Sprint Cup start of the season and that’s going to come into play during the Pure Michigan 400. Also, Bowman is really just out there logging laps to get experience, so it’s not like he’s going to be racing super hard. A great day out of Bowman and this #88 team would be about a 12th-place finish, which would net him 26 FPTS in DraftKings. That’d be a decent amount if his salary was where it should be ($6,000 or so), but at $8,100? Hell no.
“Flat-Out Avoid” DraftKings Drivers for the Pure Michigan 400
Kyle Busch ($10,000) – Is Kyle Busch capable of putting up a solid finish in Sunday’s Pure Michigan 400? Yes. Does he have the car to accomplish that? Possibly. Will it happen? Probably not. You know you’re down on your luck at a particular track when Josh Wise and Michael Annett have a better average finish over the last five races there, as is the case with Kyle Busch at Michigan right now. The #18 Toyota had engine problems here back in June and that makes it four finishes of 39th or worse in the last five Michigan races for Kyle Busch. Yikes. His best finish during that span came in this exact race one year ago, where he ended up finishing 11th. And if Rowdy can make it through Sunday without any mechanical problems or running into the wall, he might be able to replicate that, but 38 FPTS for an 11th-place finish isn’t worthy of a $10,000 price tag. There’s going to be quite a few people that see Kyle Busch’s starting spot of 16th on Sunday and their eyes will get big because of the chance for place differential points, but don’t forget that there was only one Toyota in the top 11 here back in June, and those cars don’t look too stellar this weekend, either.
After a gloomy-looking forecast earlier in the week, the weather wasn’t terrible at Michigan International Speedway on Friday and Saturday, although the Happy Hour practice session got cancelled about halfway through. Rain shouldn’t affect the Pure Michigan 400 on Sunday much, if at all. The races here at this fast, 2-mile race track are typically some of the easiest to predict. Starting up front here is a pretty big advantage considering the track type, and it’s going to be difficult to pass here on race day. There were two practice sessions here on Saturday, but the first one was held so early in the morning it’s hard to put much weight into those speeds. Analyzing the Happy Hour speed chart will be much more beneficial.
Last week, we had a typical Bristol race with our Yahoo! Fantasy Auto Racing team. We don’t know what it is about that track but it seems like we never have a good week there. We ended up with 234 points and now sit in the 68th percentile. Luckily, Michigan is usually a very good track for us from a Fantasy NASCAR perspective.
Yahoo! A Group Pick and Final Rankings for Michigan 2
Photo Credit: Christian Petersen/Getty Images
We have a dilemma this weekend. Now, it’s a very good situation to be in, but still a dilemma nonetheless. And that is: which A Group driver should we start–Joey Logano or Kevin Harvick? The #22 Ford and the #4 Chevrolet are going to be the two favorites on race day, and unless both of these cars have mechanical issues on Sunday, it’s hard to imagine any other getting to victory lane. So, as far as which one starts, it’s has to come down to which driver will probably lead the most laps, and for us that is Joey Logano. He will start on the pole yet again here at Michigan, and if you remember back to the June race here, he dominated from that starting spot and ended up in victory lane. We honestly see that happening again this Sunday with the Pure Michigan 400, unless Harvick has significantly better long-run speed–which is not out of the question, as that has been the case a lot this season. However, Logano’s crew chief, Todd Gordon, was so impressed with their race car that he didn’t even want to practice on Saturday, so as soon as we heard that, our decision was made: we’re starting Joey Logano on Sunday.
Unfortunately Yahoo! Fantasy Auto Racing doesn’t award points for place differential, so the fact that Brad Keselowskistarts 18th takes down his fantasy value a bit this weekend. He should still be a solid top 10 car when it’s all said and done, though. As we mentioned in our Yahoo! Preview this week, Denny Hamlin is a nice off-sequence pick here at Michigan (less than 9% of teams have him). He qualified 3rd on Sunday and didn’t look too bad in Happy Hour on Saturday, posting the fastest lap in that session. Also don’t forget that he has a 6.5 average finish over the last six Sprint Cup races, and he ended up 5th in this race one year ago. Jimmie Johnson qualified 2nd this week but, honestly, we can’t trust him right now. He’s going to be boom or bust this weekend, and keep in mind that Hendrick has a whole looks to have found a lot of speed here in the Irish Hills.
Final A Group Rankings: (1) Joey Logano, (2) Kevin Harvick, (3) Denny Hamlin, (4) Jimmie Johnson, (5) Brad Keselowski, (6) Matt Kenseth, (7) Kurt Busch, (8) Kyle Busch
Yahoo! B Group Picks and Final Rankings for Michigan 2
Photo Credit: Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images
We stayed away from Carl Edwards and Martin Truex, Jr. this weekend based simply on strategy, so our four B Group drivers for the Pure Michigan 400 are Jamie McMurray, Kyle Larson, Tony Stewart, and Austin Dillon. We’re not in a particularly bad spot as far as spots in the B Group right now, but start saving is still on our mind, and because of that, we’re definitely going to start Jamie McMurray this weekend. He qualified 8th for Sunday’s race and hasn’t finished worse than 16th in the last five races here at Michigan. Additionally, this #1 team is fighting for their Chase life and have ran pretty well as of late, posting four top 10s in the last six Cup races overall. McMurray should be at least top 15 good here on Sunday.
So now it really comes down to Tony Stewart or Kyle Larson for us. Austin Dillon has been struggling all weekend long, and the fact that final practice was shortened on Saturday didn’t help him much. When it comes to Stewart or Larson, it’s really a game of how much you’d like to gamble. The latter finished 3rd here back in June and is in desperate need of a win if he wants to make the Chase. This weekend, Larson will roll off the grid from 12th and he had top 10 speed in both practice sessions on Saturday. Stewart, on the other hand, wound up 7th in the first Michigan race this season and also showed good speed during the practice sessions this weekend, including laying down the fastest lap in Practice #2 on Saturday morning. Heading into Sunday we have Kyle Larson starting alongside Jamie McMurray, but that could change. Both Larson and Stawart have top 10 potential this weekend.
Photo Credit: Chris Trotman/Getty Images
As far as Edwards and Truex, neither of them have shown top 5 speed this weekend, so if you do have them on your roster for the Pure Michigan 400, we wouldn’t recommend wasting a start on Sunday. Yes, they both have the potential to get up there inside the top 5, but it’s nowhere near a guarantee. Ryan Newman starts 10th and has finished 15th or better in five of the last six races here at Michigan. He’s another one of those safe Fantasy NASCAR picks this weekend but it’s hard to see him finishing better than 10th without some strategy coming into play. Kasey Kahne is another driver that is consistent here at Michigan and he actually showed quite a bit of speed during the practice sessions on Saturday. He hasn’t had a top 10 finish since the Sonoma race back in June, though, and we don’t see that changing this weekend. The Roush-Fenway Fords of Trevor Bayne and Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. are decent options in place differential leagues but not that great in leagues like Yahoo!.
Final B Group Rankings: (1) Carl Edwards, (2) Kyle Larson, (3) Martin Truex, Jr., (4) Tony Stewart, (5) Jamie McMurray, (6) Ryan Newman, (7) Kasey Kahne, (8) Austin Dillon, (9) Paul Menard, (10) Trevor Bayne, (11) Greg Biffle, (12) Ricky Stenhouse, Jr., (13) A.J. Allmendinger, (14) Danica Patrick, (15) Aric Almirola, (16) Casey Mears, (17) Clint Bowyer
Yahoo! C Group Pick and Final Rankings for Michigan 2
Photo Credit: NASCAR Media
It’s going to be really hard to leave Chase Elliott on the bench this weekend. The #24 Chevrolet finished 2nd here back in June and Chase mentioned on Friday that the track was very similar this weekend to where it was two months ago. He also qualified 5th for Sunday’s Pure Michigan 400 and showed great speed during the practice sessions on Saturday. The reason we’re considering leaving him on the bench is because there’s thirteen races left and we have eleven starts left between him and Ryan Blaney, but it’s hard to pass up a potential top 5 finish out of a C Group driver. As far as Blaney goes, he starts 7th on Sunday and, while he wasn’t as fast as Elliott on Saturday, the #21 Ford should be at least top 15 good. However, with three finishes of 19th or worse in the last four Sprint Cup races, it’s very hard to trust him right now. As far as our roster goes, our second C Group driver is Alex Bowman, and he has actually been pretty impressive this weekend. He qualified 6th for Sunday’s Pure Michigan 400 in that #88 Chevrolet and showed top 10 speed in both practice sessions on Saturday. If you’re lower than us on Elliott/Blaney starts, we think you need to start Alex Bowman this weekend, but as far as our team goes, we’re starting Chase Elliott on Sunday.
Final C Group Rankings: (1) Chase Elliott, (2) Ryan Blaney, (3) Alex Bowman, (4) Chris Buescher, (5) David Ragan, (6) Landon Cassill, (7) Regan Smith, the rest
The biggest question on a lot of people’s minds this week is whether or not we’re finally going to see some passing here at Michigan International Speedway. NASCAR has been tweaking things here in the Irish Hills for the last couple of races, but unless a driver has some kind of issue during the race, those who qualify near the front tend to finish up there as well. In this race last year, six of the top 7 finishers started inside the top 10, and when we ran here back in June, six of the top 8 started 11th or better. Also, four of the last six Michigan races have been won from the pole. We’re bringing all of this up, of course, because FOX Fantasy Auto is a game built on place differential. And honestly, the best strategy this weekend is probably going to be focusing on finish points.
Last week at Bristol 2, our official Fantasy Racing Online FOX team scored 170 points thanks to Kevin Harvick’s win and Greg Biffle’s +18 place differential. We have now cracked the top 500 overall (we’re in 490th) and remain 3rd in our private group.
FOX Fantasy Auto Picks for the Pure Michigan 400
Photo Credit: Jeff Curry/NASCAR via Getty Images
Kevin Harvick ($13,500) – Like we said, we’re going for the finish points this weekend. Chances are, we’re going to have two-in-a-row of some sort once the checkered flag waves on Sunday: either Joey Logano is going to get his second Michigan win in a row, or Kevin Harvick is going to get his second Sprint Cup win in a row. As far as the FOX Fantasy Auto game goes, both of these drivers are pretty much locks as far as a good finish in the Pure Michigan 400, but Harvick has the potential for at least a couple of place differential points this weekend, so we’re going to go ahead and throw him on our roster. Not only is Harvick a driver that will contend every time he qualifies up front, but he’s also a contender pretty much every time we race here at Michigan. Over the last seven Sprint Cup races here, Harv has finished inside the top 5 in six of them, with the only exception being that rain-shortened event last season. He led the most laps that day, by the way. Relatively speaking, Logano is pretty cheap ($10,900) in the FOX Fantasy Auto game this weekend, but we’re still going with the #4 Freaky Fast team.
Brad Keselowski ($12,000) – We could go with Joey Logano in this roster spot but don’t forget that place differential points are the name of the game in this FOX Fantasy Auto contest. Brad Keselowski didn’t have that great of a qualifying effort here on Friday, and because of that he’s going to roll off the grid from 18th. However, he loves this race track and he always finds a good finish here in the Irish Hills, so the Blue Deuce should be one car that will be making moves through the field on Sunday. Currently, Keselowski is on a five-race streak of top 10 finishes here at Michigan and that’s probably going to extend to six once the Pure Michigan 400 is all said and done. The Blue Deuce was 5th-fastest in Happy Hour on Saturday and if Brad can replicate that type of speed during the race this weekend, we’re looking at a very nice points day from the #2 Ford.
Photo Credit: Ron Jenkins/Getty Images
Tony Stewart ($9,000) – With these next two roster spots, there’s two ways that we are thinking of going. First is the two drivers we have listed, Tony Stewart and Kurt Busch. But you can also afford Kyle Larson and Martin Truex, Jr. with the remaining salary, so there’s another option for you. Chances are, however, we are going with the two safer picks in the Stewart-Haas Racing Chevrolets. Stewart notched his twenty-first career top 10 finish here at Michigan back in the June race and that’s really what got his hot streak started this season. He has ended up 11th or better in nine of the last thirteen races here at MIS and it wouldn’t surprise us one bit if he made if ten of the last fourteen here on Sunday. Smoke will roll off the grid from his 15th-place starting spot in this year’s Pure Michigan 400 but he should be able to improve throughout the race and collect some place differential points along the way. The #14 Chevrolet was fastest in Practice #2 on Saturday morning and ended up 12th on the Happy Hour speed chart later that afternoon.
Kurt Busch ($10,400) – The two best options for place differential points this weekend are Brad Keselowski and Kurt Busch, so we might as well throw them both on our roster, right? Kurt is the one pick that we’re not 100% confident in this weekend, but the potential for 40+ points in this FOX Fantasy Auto game is definitely there. The #41 Chevrolet wound up 19th after qualifying was all said and done this weekend, but if you just looked at the practice speeds from Saturday that would have probably surprised you. Kurt posted the 4th-best lap in Practice #2 on Saturday morning, but quickly warned his team not to get too excited because of the track conditions. Still, he went out and ended up 6th-fastest in Happy Hour so it’s not like that speed was a fluke. Back here in June, Kurt started 17th and ended up finishing 10th, and we’re expecting a very similar race out of him here on Sunday.
Photo Credit: Brian Lawdermilk/NASCAR via Getty Images
Alex Bowman ($5,000) – Why not? Unlike some other leagues (like DraftKings), you don’t lose points for place differential in FOX Fantasy Auto, so taking a chance with Alex Bowman and his low salary this weekend isn’t a terrible idea. He’ll start from 6th in Sunday’s Pure Michigan 400, so you can pretty much throw out the chance of him moving up, but a nice 12th-place finish or so out of Bowman wouldn’t be surprising one bit. This #88 Chevrolet has had nice speed all weekend long–as has the rest of the Hendrick organization–and as long as Bowman can keep it off of the wall for the entire 400 miles, we see no reason why he can’t come home with a respectable finish. The #88 Chevrolet was 8th-fastest in Practice #2 on Saturday morning and wound up 10th on the speed chart during Happy Hour. Bowman’s career best finish here at Michigan International Speedway is 26th, but he should easily best that in Sunday’s Pure Michigan 400.
Practice and qualifying for this year's Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway are scheduled to take place on Saturday evening, but the weather forecast...
