After the Watkins Glen race a couple of weeks ago, we go from one extreme to the other in terms of DraftKings Fantasy NASCAR. This week at Bristol Motor Speedway–otherwise known as “The Bullring” and “Thunder Valley”–the Sprint Cup Series drivers are set to run at least 500 total laps, meaning there are 125 bonus points for laps led and 250 bonus points for fastest laps up for grabs. In other words, there’s going to be some big DraftKings scores this weekend. We ran here back in April, and it was Carl Edwards that got the win after starting on the pole and leading 276 laps, and one statistic that’s worth noting is the fact that each of the last four Bristol winners have started inside the top 5.

High-Dollar DraftKings Drivers to Target at Bristol 2
($9,000 or above)

Kyle Busch ($10,600) – It’s difficult to justify putting the highest-priced driver on your DraftKings team, but with so many bonus points up for grabs in this 500-lap race, the risk is well worth the reward this weekend. Kyle Busch used to be the king of Bristol, and with the bottom groove coming back as the preferred line, he just might take over that crown once again. The #18 Toyota was hands-down the best car during both practice sessions on Friday afternoon, and Rowdy qualified 3rd later that evening to back up that speed. Busch is always a favorite when the series stops here at Bristol, and with eight career finishes of 1st or 2nd here in Sprint Cup action, it’s not hard to figure out why. Our only concern with Kyle Busch this weekend is how much bad luck he has had here at Bristol as of late, with three finishes of 29th or worse in the last four races. With that being said, we find it almost impossible to leave the fastest car off of your roster this weekend. We’ll probably have a couple of DraftKings teams that fade Rowdy on Saturday night, but that is by no means our main strategy this weekend.

Denny Hamlin ($9,500) – That #11 Toyota is just bad to the bone fast this weekend, and while Denny’s track record here at Bristol is a little shaky, we don’t like going against that type of speed. We were honestly surprised that Hamlin didn’t end up with the pole on Friday, although he did qualify 2nd. Hamlin had top 5 speed in both practice sessions on Friday afternoon and had the best ten-lap average in each. He finished 3rd in this race one year ago and does have one victory here at Bristol (back in 2012). Unless Carl Edwards didn’t quite show all of the speed he actually has during practice on Friday, we should see Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch out front quite a bit during the race on Saturday night, racking up those laps led and fastest laps bonus points.

Matt Kenseth ($9,200) – We’re continuing on this JGR trend with Matt Kenseth. This is actually a very good price on the driver that we had ranked P1 heading into the Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race weekend. Kenseth is a four-time winner here at Bristol Motor Speedway and has finished inside the top 3 in three of the last six races at this track. In the April race this season, the #20 Toyota led 142 laps but blew a tire while leading. Still, Kenseth was able to bounce back and make his way back up into the top 10 but ended up blowing yet another tire, which relegated him to a 36th-place finish. The fact still remained, however, that he had one of the cars to beat. This weekend, Kenseth has another great race car for Saturday night’s race, as he was very fast overall during the two practice sessions on Friday. With DraftKings, there’s always a risk when it comes to taking a driver that starts up front (Matt qualified 5th) but at Bristol it could very well be worth it if they put down a bunch of fast laps and lead some as well. Kenseth has the potential to score a bunch of FPTS this weekend and at a pretty nice price.

Mid-Dollar DraftKings Drivers to Target at Bristol 2
(between $7,000 and $9,000)

Kyle Larson ($8,500) – Kyle Larson has a much better race car than his 23rd-place qualifying effort shows, and as long as he can keep the car off the wall and keep his temper in check, he should post a nice amount of FPTS in DraftKings on Saturday night. Our main concern is whether or not Larson is going to try and pay back A.J. Allmendinger for the spin-out at Watkins Glen a couple of weeks ago. However, Larson is still fighting for his Chase life, so we don’t really see that happening. Kyle has had two rough races here at Bristol as of late, but in his first three career starts here in Thunder Valley he never finished worse than 12th. This weekend, he had top 10 speed in both practice sessions on Friday, and with the way this #42 team has been running as of late, it wouldn’t surprise us one bit if he made his way through the field and ran with the leaders in Saturday night’s Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race. It’s pretty risky putting Larson on your DraftKings team this weekend but the upside here is pretty big.

Tony Stewart ($8,300) – Smoke has some work to do here on Saturday night, as he was one of the bigger names to miss advancing on to the second round of qualifying on Friday. Because of that, the #14 Chevrolet will roll off the grid from 27th-place on Saturday night. However, when it comes to fantasy leagues that award points based on place differential–like DraftKings–that isn’t necessarily a bad thing, especially with Tony Stewart. You see, he just doesn’t seem to have qualifying down here at Bristol, but when it comes to the actual race, it’s a totally different story. In the last three Sprint Cup events here in “Thunder Valley,” Stewart has started 40th, 21st, and 37th, and posted finishes of 19th, 6th, and 4th (respectively). Those are some great place differential point values. This #14 team is getting finishes whether they have the car to do so or not, and that is something I don’t like going for; Tony Stewart has finished 11th or better in seven of the last eight Sprint Cup races overall, and while it’s nowhere near a guarantee that that happens here on Saturday night, it wouldn’t surprise us one bit.

Greg Biffle ($7,000) – This is actually one of the riskiest plays there are this weekend, but the upside with Greg Biffle on Saturday night is huge. He spun out during qualifying on Friday and because of that will roll off the grid from the 34th-place starting spot. Biffle also spun during the Happy Hour practice session on Friday, but we’re not overly concerned about that because the track should be much tighter during the actual Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race. Now, if The Biff can keep from wrecking during the entire 500 laps on Saturday night–and that’s a big if–that’s when he’s going to be a great fantasy pick in DraftKings and other leagues that award points based on place differential. Greg has a knack for staying out of trouble and has ended up 12th or better in five of the last seven Bristol races because of it. Oh, and one other thing? This #16 team gambles on fuel and other strategy factors on a constant basis, and most of the time it works out for them. If that happens again here in Thunder Valley on Saturday night, don’t be surprised to see The Biff finish top 15. Don’t say we didn’t warn you! Biffle was 11th-fastest in the Happy Hour practice session on Friday.

Low-Dollar DraftKings Drivers to Target at Bristol 2
(under $7,000)

Paul Menard ($6,800) – We actually though Paul Menard would be quite a bit higher in price this weekend for the Bristol race, so the fact that we can grab him at $6,800 for our DraftKings team is pretty nice. There are two race tracks that Paul Menard can be counted on time in and time out in Fantasy NASCAR, and they the two tracks that we are visiting to end the month of April: Bristol and Michigan. Focusing on the former–since, ya know, we’re here–in seven of the last nine races here in “Thunder Valley,” Menard has ended up 15th or better, and he has collected five of his six career top 10 Bristol finishes over that span. This Saturday night the #27 Chevrolet will start from 20th, which gives DraftKings owners a bit of room for place differential points. Menard showed top 15 speed during the practice sessions on Friday, and if he’s able to accomplish a finish of 15th on Saturday night, that will be at least 34 FPTS for DraftKings owners.

Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. ($6,700) – For whatever reason, Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. has a knack for getting a good finish here at Bristol, and we’re not going to try and figure out why. After the first couple of good finishes here at “The Bullring” we thought it might just be luck, but when you step back and realize that Stenhouse has the best average finish (11.9) among active drivers that aren’t rookies, it’s hard to say it’s a fluke. That average is over seven career starts by Ricky here at Bristol, by the way. The best part about it–at least from a DraftKings perspective–is that he isn’t a very good qualifier here, so there’s definitely room for place differential points. This weekend, Stenhouse will start the Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race from 25th, but if he can pull off his magic here once again he should finish much better than that. The #17 Ford isn’t the fastest car in the field this weekend, but like we said before, Stenhouse knows how to stay out of trouble at this race track and that is going to be a big part of a good finish here on Saturday night.

Trevor Bayne ($6,200) – Trevor Bayne has actually been a great value play in recent weeks, as he’s scored 40+ FPTS in three of the last six Sprint Cup races, and over the last nine Cup races, Bayne is averaging 34.7 FPTS. That’s a pretty nice return for a driver that is constantly one of the cheapest options available. As mentioned before, here at Bristol, the Roush-Fenway cars tend to be able to avoid the wrecks and end up with a good finish. Bayne wound up 15th in this race one year ago and ended up finishing a career-best 5th here back in April (while scoring 45 FPTS). Now, we don’t expect the #6 Ford to come away with another top 5 finish this weekend, but you never know how these Bristol races are going to play out. The fact that he starts 22nd is pretty good, although we would have preferred he qualified a little further back. Still, at this price, Trevor remains a pretty nice option for your DraftKings team.

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Things can change fast here at Bristol Motor Speedway, and that can either be a very good or very bad thing for your DraftKings team. One slip-up by one of your drivers (or his/her pit crew) could easily take you from a cashing position to out of one. We should also expect to see some beating and banging by the drivers on Saturday night, because that’s just what happens when you cram 40 cars on a half-mile race track. Also, there’s a higher likelihood for tempers to flare now that we’re in “crunch time” for some teams to make this year’s Chase playoffs.

Typically with this post, we have a general list of drivers to avoid in DraftKings for various reasons. However, this week we’re going to try something new, something a little more structured. We are now going to categorize the drivers you should avoid: 1.) Over-Qualified, or drivers that qualified up front and probably won’t finish there, 2.) Over-Valued, or drivers that simply cost too much for the limited potential points they will earn or are going to be drafted by many other players, giving you an opportunity to fade them, and 3.) Flat-Out Avoid, or drivers that should simply be avoided at all costs. Most drivers will be categorized as either 1 or 2.

“Over-Qualified” DraftKings Drivers to Avoid for the Bristol Night Race

A.J. Allmendinger ($7,200) – It’s not necessarily a good thing if a driver qualifies better than he’s ever finished at a particular track, and that’s exactly what A.J. Allmendinger did this weekend. In sixteen career starts here at Bristol, “The Dinger” has never posted a result better than 12th, and that was way back in 2011. This weekend, he qualified 8th for the Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race, and while that is a nice effort for this team, you should probably avoid A.J. like the plague when it comes to your DraftKings roster. Remember, he also qualified 9th in the spring race here back in April and ended up finishing 19th, scoring just 18 FPTS when it was all said and done. If all of that doesn’t make you stay away from Allmendinger this weekend, keep in mind that the only way he’s going to make the Chase this season is if he wins, and that means he’s going to driving like a jackass on Saturday night. Nearly 99% of the time that doesn’t end well here at Bristol.

Chris Buescher ($5,900) – Buescher is a wonderful Fantasy NASCAR pick in most league types this weekend, but DraftKings is not one of them. He’s actually ran pretty well here, with finishes of 25th and 21st in his first two starts at “The Bull Ring.” With that being said, Buescher wound up qualifying 12th for this weekend’s Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race, and that immediately makes him a terrible option in DraftKings. Unless he has a bunch of luck (and rain, fog, etc.) Buescher is a top 20 pick at best, and if he does end up finishing 20th here on Saturday night, that’s just 16 FPTS for his owners. You couldn’t pay us to put the driver of the #34 Ford on our DraftKings rosters this weekend.

Ryan Blaney ($7,800) – To be honest, we think this could end up being a very good race for Ryan Blaney on Saturday night. Does that mean he’s going to be on our DraftKings rosters? Not a chance. The #21 Ford will roll off the grid from the 4th-place starting spot for the 2016 Bristol night race, and while Blaney has shown a whole bunch of speed all weekend long, we just don’t see him as a legitimate top 5 threat in this race. Honestly, he’s not one of those drivers that is going to be aggressive and try to lead laps, and that means he’s going to give up some positions as the race goes on. To be honest, we have his ceiling at about 10th-place heading into race day (night), and right there you would be giving up 6 FPTS due to place differential. Blaney ran 11th in the spring race here at Bristol this season and he would probably be a great play in some Fantasy NASCAR leagues this weekend, but DraftKings is not one of them.

“Over-Valued” DraftKings Drivers to Avoid for the Bristol Night Race

Kevin Harvick ($10,400) – If you read our DraftKings Drivers to Target for Bristol 2 article, you’ll know that our recommended strategy this weekend is to go after the drivers that are going to get a bunch of laps led and fastest laps bonus points. Chances are Kevin Harvick isn’t going to fit that description. To be honest, the #4 Chevrolet probably looked the worst that it has all season on Friday, and while we are fully confident that Rodney Childers can make that race car fast for Saturday night, it’s nowhere near a guarantee. So while the potential place differential points are great with Harvick this weekend–he starts 24th–don’t focus solely on them. He could still finish top 5 this weekend and only have around 60 FPTS, which is quite low when you consider we’ll probably see one or two drivers with triple-digits on Saturday night. In our opinion, this is one of a few fade options at Bristol this weekend, and we don’t think Kevin Harvick is worth the high price tag in DraftKings this time. Also, if you look at his history here at Bristol, “Happy” usually doesn’t race to well unless he qualifies near the front.

Kurt Busch ($9,000) – Boy has this #41 team taken a step back. After being a single-digit finish machine for the first four months of the season, Kurt Busch now has just one single-digit finish in the last eight Sprint Cup races overall–and that was that crazy fuel mileage race at Kentucky. Now, Kurt is still a weekly top 10 threat, don’t get us wrong, but the potential for a top 5 finish seems to have gone away from this team over the last couple of months…and we don’t see it returning here at Bristol. Busch is a five-time winner here in Thunder Valley but his last win here ten years ago, way back in 2006. Kurt finished 3rd in the spring race here at Bristol this season but we can’t forget how whacky of a race that was and how the cautions benefited a lot of teams. The #41 Chevrolet will roll off the grid from 14th here on Saturday night, and while it wouldn’t surprise us to see Kurt come home with a solid top 10 in the 2016 Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race, he’s not worth the $9,000 price tag with the limited amount of FPTS he will probably earn. He’s scored below his season average in six of the last seven Sprint Cup races.

Jeff Gordon ($8,800) – When you get into this price range with your DraftKings drivers, you’re expecting at least a top 10 finish (possibly even a top 5) along with some laps led and fastest laps. That’s not what you’re going to get out of Jeff Gordon on Saturday night. This will be his fourth start of the season in that #88 Chevrolet, and while Jeff isn’t doing too terrible (30.3 FPTS per race), there are much better options at this price level this weekend. Most people thought that he would have difficulty adjusting to the race car in the previous three races, but it’s going to be a whole different beast for 500 laps here at Bristol. While we do think Jeff Gordon has the potential to come away with a solid top 15 finish here on Saturday night, the price tag doesn’t warrant the limited amount of potential FPTS earned. Once again we think it would be best to avoid one of the all-time greats in DraftKings.

“Flat-Out Avoid” DraftKings Drivers for the Bristol Night Race

Jimmie Johnson ($9,800) – Yep, we’re going there. We don’t know what’s exactly wrong with this #48 team and we’re not about to put our Fantasy NASCAR rosters on the line to find out. With his 40th-place finish at Watkins Glen a couple of weeks ago, Jimmie Johnson has now finished outside of the top 10 in eight of the last nine Sprint Cup races overall. We’re to the point that over the last 36 races (a full season), 13 drivers have a better average finish than JJ, including Jamie McMurray (yikes). Here at Bristol, Johnson is a very hit or miss driver, with three top 5s in the last seven races along with three finishes outside of the top 20. This #48 team has struggled with the race car since they unloaded this weekend, and we were honestly a little surprised Johnson was able to qualify as high as he did on Friday (16th). There might be a little bit of value in drafting Jimmie Johnson this weekend but at $9,800 and with the slump he’s in? Count us out.

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