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Bristol NASCAR Fantasy Live Picks

By
Jordan McAbee
-
Photo Credit: Brian Lawdermilk/Getty Images

The best strategy for all teams in NASCAR.com Fantasy Live this weekend is to go for the lap leaders. We’re set to make 500 circuits around Bristol Motor Speedway here on Sunday afternoon and that means there will be 250 bonus points up for grabs for both laps led and fastest lap, equaling a total of 500 bonus points. Those are much more valuable than the points for picking the winner. So, yes, depending on how the race shakes out, it might be better to pick the driver who leads 200 laps and finishes 20th than the driver who leads 10 laps and wins the race. This is the same strategy we used at Martinsville a couple weeks ago, which means it’s usually best to pick the guys who start up front and risk the place differential loss.

Speaking of Martinsville, we missed the boat with our NASCAR.com Fantasy Live team that race but bounced back with a decent week at Texas, totaling 225.5 points. Unfortunately we went with Kyle Busch over Carl Edwards last week and missed out on all of those points Carl got for leading. Anyway, we are now in 10,635th place (95.48 percentile) and looking to have a big week at Bristol.

NASCAR.com Fantasy Live Picks for the Bristol Food City 500

Photo Credit: Jeff Zelevansky/Getty Images
Photo Credit: Jeff Zelevansky/Getty Images

Jimmie Johnson ($26.50) – We still have JJ locked in at $26.50 from a month or so ago, but with this roster we have for Bristol there’s going to be some room to work with, so you might be able to fit him in there as well even if you don’t have him at that price. It would be foolish to drop Jimmie this week even though it doesn’t look like the #48 Chevrolet can go out and dominate this race. He starts 6th, so there’s some risk there for place differential in the case that he has some bad luck, but if nothing goes wrong on Sunday, Johnson should be a solid top 5 car. He’s only been to victory lane once here at Bristol Motor Speedway but he’s currently on a three-race streak of top 5 finishes here. This #48 Chevrolet ranked 6th on the overall speed chart during Happy Hour on Saturday and was 5th in ten-lap average during that session.

Kyle Busch ($28.00) – Rowdy is going to be on a whole bunch of our rosters this weekend and the NASCAR.com Fantasy Live game is no exception. We expect Kyle to lead the most laps here in the Food City 500 on Sunday and that means we should get plenty of bonus points for both laps led and fastest laps in this game. Busch will start Sunday’s Food City 500 from the 5th place, and while that isn’t ideal for a game that takes into account place differential, we’re not too worried about that. This #18 team has been almost unstoppable this season and is going for its third Sprint Cup win in a row. Busch had the best ten-lap average in Practice #2 on Saturday and ranked 1st in that category in Happy Hour. Translation? He has a good car. Rowdy is a five-time winner here at Bristol Motor Speedway and had one of the best cars here when we raced in the fall last season. We also have him locked in at that $28.00 price point, which saves us a quarter.

Photo Credit: Robert Laberge/NASCAR via Getty Images
Photo Credit: Robert Laberge/NASCAR via Getty Images

Matt Kenseth ($26.00) – As we wrote earlier this week, it’s very possible that Matt Kenseth turns his luck around here soon, and when that happens it wouldn’t surprise us to see him go on a run of two or three wins over a couple months of racing. This #20 team has speed every single week, they just can’t seem to put together a mistake-free race. However, as we’ve seen many times in the past, all it takes is one “right” call, and they’ll be off. Bristol is a great track for Kenseth, and while it’s not ideal for a driver to turn their season around here, it’s still possible. He’s been to victory lane four times in “Thunder Valley” and is the defending winner of this race. Kenseth also has another victory here in the last five races, as he won the 2013 fall race. He finished 3rd in the fall race two years ago. For Sunday’s Food City 500, the #20 Toyota is going to roll off the grid on the outside pole alongside his teammate Carl Edwards. We’re really hoping that Edwards does his patented “I won the pole but I’m not going to lead many laps” and Kenseth goes out and leads a handful at the start. The #20 Toyota is going to have to lead a portion of this race for this roster to pay off, but we’re willing to take that gamble.

Cole Whitt ($5.00) – Here’s our roster filler for the weekend. We would have liked to jump up there and grab Matt DiBenedetto, but the cap room simply isn’t there. We don’t really have a preference for the four or so drivers you can pick in this price range. We’re going with Cole Whitt because he starts 39th and had a decent ten-lap average in Happy Hour–for him anyway (he ranked 32nd out of 38). Whitt also ran 30th at Martinsville a couple of weeks ago and actually hasn’t finished worse than 30th in the last three Sprint Cup races.

Photo Credit: Tom Pennington/Getty Images
Photo Credit: Tom Pennington/Getty Images

Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. ($13.75) – We’re really hoping that the typical Bristol race plays out, because that’s going to mean a whole lot of place differential points from Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. We can’t really explain why he has had such good runs here at Bristol, but through six career starts at this track, Ricky owns the best average finish of all drivers in the Sprint Cup Series. No, that’s not a lie. Call it luck or what have you, the fact of the matter is that Stenhouse has never finished worse than 21st at this track and has three finishes of 6th or better in the last four Bristol races. He started in the mid-20s for all of those top 10 runs as well. This weekend, Ricky will roll off the grid from the 32nd starting spot, but he should be able to pass the lesser cars early on, and with a well-timed caution, stay on the lead lap. From there, you never know what’s going to happen.

NOTE: Another roster combination that is possible–and the one that we initially had–is swapping out Matt Kenseth and Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. for Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott. With Larson and Elliott, you’re going for place differential points, as they both start mid-pack. With Kenseth and Stenhouse, you’re going for laps led and some place differential points.

Race Winner: Kyle Busch
Manufacturer: Toyota

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DraftKings NASCAR Drivers to Avoid for Bristol

By
Jordan McAbee
-
Photo Credit: Matt Sullivan/NASCAR via Getty Images

We’re in a similar situation this weekend at Bristol as we were at Martinsville a couple of races ago: it’s a short track, which means if you don’t have a car that is good at the start of the race, and you start mid-pack, you are going to get lapped quickly. Now obviously the key to these DraftKings games is to find the drivers that are going to make up spots from where they start and also finish up front, as well as getting the most value out of those middle-to-lower priced drivers.

Also important when forming your DraftKings rosters is to stay away from the drivers that might seem like a good deal (but really aren’t), or the drivers that you should flat out stay away from. So let’s talk about some of those.

DraftKings Drivers to Avoid for the Food City 500 at Bristol

Photo Credit: Photo by Nick Laham/Getty Images
Photo Credit: Photo by Nick Laham/Getty Images

Clint Bowyer ($6,800) – This guy is a constant placement on avoid lists throughout the entire Fantasy NASCAR content sphere, but we feel like it’s necessary to talk about him here for a couple of reasons. First, Bowyer qualified 36th for Sunday’s Food City 500, so there will be teams trying to cash in on place differential just in case Bowyer actually has a good race. Second, Clint has actually been one of the best drivers here at Bristol over the last few years, posting an average finish of 11.3 over the last six races here (2nd-best in the series). The #15 Chevrolet will probably end up around 28th on Sunday, which equals 24 DraftKings points. That’s alright for a driver in Bowyer’s price range, but we feel like there are better option that are around the same price or even lower this week. P.S. If you didn’t read our article post last week about Clint Bowyer’s struggles, you can by clicking here.

Martin Truex, Jr. ($8,900) – Truex is one of the top talents in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series, but we wouldn’t recommend picking him this week–in any league. He’s right there on the lower end of the higher-priced drivers, so he’s probably going to fit in as a “missing puzzle piece” for many potential rosters, but it’s not worth it, and here’s why: he’s just not very good at Bristol. In twenty career starts here in “Thunder Valley,” Truex has posted just two top 10 finishes (10%) and the last time that happened, President Obama was in his first term as this nation’s leader. In his last five starts here, Truex hasn’t finished better than 20th. Now, we think he’s going to end up better than that here on Sunday, but he starts 8th so even if he has a good (for him) run of 15th, you’re still losing 7 points off the bat for place differential.

Photo Credit: Todd Warshaw/NASCAR via Getty Images
Photo Credit: Todd Warshaw/NASCAR via Getty Images

Denny Hamlin ($9,600) – Now, this isn’t an “avoid like the plague” proclamation, but let’s just look at some Denny Hamlin’s recent races here at Bristol. He started on the pole here last fall and ended up finished 3rd, which is good, and he started on the pole in the spring race of 2014 and ended up finishing 6th after leading just four laps. In last year’s spring race, Hamlin started 5th and finished 26th, and in the two races here in 2013 he started 3rd and 1st and finished 23rd and 28th, respectively. So what’s our point of throwing out all of those numbers? Denny Hamlin tends to disappoint majorly here at Bristol, and isn’t worth the money this week. He has also been very unpredictable this season, posting just two results better than 12th in the six races since winning the Daytona 500. He also starts 4th on Sunday, so the only way to justify the high salary is if Hamlin is going to lead quite a few laps–something we don’t really see happening (although it’s possible).

Chris Buescher ($5,800) – You’re very low-priced driver to avoid this week is Chris Buescher. He had his 2nd-best qualifying effort of the season on Friday (21st) and that pretty much sealed it for this kid. The thing with this #34 team is that they tend to qualify better than they actually are. That is bad news not only for DraftKings players, but pretty much any Fantasy NASCAR player because it creates a false hope. Buescher did finished 25th in this race one year ago, but that was more due to other drivers having issues than him being good. Buescher still had one of the worst driver ratings in that race. If you need to take one of the low-dollar drivers this week, David Ragan is a decent option, and he’s $100 less than Buescher.

Photo Credit: Todd Warshaw/Getty Images
Photo Credit: Todd Warshaw/Getty Images

Chase Elliott ($8,500) – It’s always worth taking a gamble on the two good rookies in the Sprint Cup Series this year, but we don’t like doing that on short tracks. Making 500 laps around Bristol Motor Speedway takes a lot out of a driver. Chase is going to be a popular option this week because of his 19th-place starting spot, but we just can’t really fully recommend him as a “sure” pick this week because of how up-and-down he has been thus far. There’s a reason he’s averaging just 25.9 points per race on DraftKings. And we still hate this price point of $8,500 for Elliott. You have solid options that cost less and are less risky (Austin Dillon, Kyle Larson, Jamie McMurray, Ryan Newman), so that’s why we’re saying avoid Chase Elliott.

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There’s No Need To Worry About Matt Kenseth

By
Jordan McAbee
-
Photo Credit: Sean Gardner/NASCAR via Getty Images

We are now seven races into the 2016 NASCAR Sprint Cup season and there have been plenty of great stories that have developed. First, the low downforce package has produced some of the best racing we’ve seen in the last ten years, as well as some of the closest finishes (see Daytona and Phoneix). Second, Kyle Busch looks even better than last season (when he won the championship) and has posted six top 5 finishes in the first seven races, including wins at Martinsville and Texas. Finally, let’s not forget about the impressive rookie performances of Chase Elliott and Ryan Blaney, who have already established themselves as weekly top 10 threats.

And then there’s Matt Kenseth.

Fans of the #20 team are starting to enter “freak out mode” right about now, as Kenseth is off to his worst start in the last seven years. When you take a look at his average finish since Daytona–we chose not to include that crapshoot of a race–it’s right at 18th, far and above his worst since 2010. Matt’s average in the six races after Daytona in the six seasons from 2010 through 2015 was 10th, so that puts into perspective just how bad he’s doing now in 2016.

Is there really a cause for concern, though? 

Logano wrecking Kenseth at Kansas Speedway
Photo Credit: Todd Warshaw/Getty Images

To put it simply, no.

Last year, Matt Kenseth averaged a finish of 14.7 in the six races following Daytona and wound up winning five races before it was all said and done. He was also one of the championship favorites before his suspension because of the feud with Joey Logano. Not to mention, the #20 Toyota actually hasn’t performed too bad here in 2016, it’s just the finishes that are eluding this team.

Over the six-race span since Daytona, Matt Kenseth is averaging a driver rating of 99.1 despite his less-than-stellar average result. That rating is 7th-best in the Sprint Cup Series. He has also led 124 total laps over that same span, which comes in at 6th-most in the series, just 29 laps behind Jimmie Johnson (who has two wins). That’s also more laps led than guys such as Joey Logano, Kurt Busch, Dale Earnhardt, Jr., Brad Keselowski, and Denny Hamlin have.

Matt Kenseth’s Chase Chances in 2016

It’s going to take a lot for Matt Kenseth to miss NASCAR’s version of the playoffs, even if the disappointing finishes continue on into summer. The fact of the matter is that NASCAR allows 16 drivers to make The Chase, despite the fact that there’s only about 25 teams competing at a level that would be considered “above minimal performance.” If you took out the restrictor plate races (since pretty much anyone could win those), there’s really only about 18 to 20 teams that could legitimately make the playoff field.

Currently Matt Kenseth is sitting in 12th-place in the points standings with a 10-point lead over 16th place (yes, we’re already looking). Let’s take out the drivers that we know are nearly a lock to win a race this year (Edwards, Logano, Earnhardt, Jr., Kurt Busch, and maybe Truex, Jr.) as well as those that have already punched their ticket to this year’s Chase (Kyle Busch, Johnson, Harvick, Hamlin, Keselowski). That’s ten drivers, so we have six Chase spots left.

Austin Dillon is currently 10th in points and is on his way to a breakout year, so we’ll give him a spot. Down to five. Chase Elliott (14th in points) is driving well enough to win a race, and could make the Chase on points, so that leaves us with four spots left. So that leaves the following drivers to fight it out for the remaining entries: Kenseth, Jamie McMurray, A.J. Allmendinger, Kasey Kahne, Ricky Stenhouse, Jr., Kyle Larson, Ryan Blaney, and Paul Menard.

Unless we somehow have four (very) surprising winners from here until the Chase cutoff, we like Kenseth’s chances. A lot.

Determining Kenseth’s Fantasy Value

Matt Kenseth smiling in garage
Photo Credit: Jared C. Tilton/NASCAR via Getty Images

Fantasy NASCAR players who have had Matt Kenseth on their roster this season have suffered through six races in which he has finished outside of the top 10, compared to just one where has finished inside that mark–and that was at Phoenix of all places. With that being said, Kenseth has led at least two laps in every race this season, except for…you guessed it, Phoenix. To say that picking the #20 Toyota is a gamble right now would be an understatement. However…this #20 team isn’t a bunch of scrubs off the street. They are putting competitive race cars on the track week in and week out, they’re just not getting the finishes.

The next race is the Food City 500 at Bristol Motor Speedway, though, which Kenseth is the defending winner of. He also won there back in 2013, and he has ended up inside the top 10 in nine of the last thirteen races in “Thunder Valley.” This weekend will be an excellent bounce-back opportunity for this #20 team, and if they can somehow get to victory lane, we can all stop talking about their struggles. Don’t forget that Joe Gibbs Racing has won three of the seven races this year.

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Bristol Yahoo! Fantasy NASCAR Strategy Picks

By
Jordan McAbee
-
Photo Credit: Sarah Crabill/Getty Images for Texas Motor Speedway

We’re at Bristol Motor Speedway this weekend for some good old fashioned short track racing with the Food City 500. It would be nice if we got to see practice before locking in our Yahoo! Auto Racing roster this week because no drivers have really been a solid pick here at Bristol over the last few years. Over the last six races in “Thunder Valley,” the driver with the best average finish is Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. (not a joke) with 11.2. Clint Bowyer is close behind with 11.3, and the first “elite” driver on that list is Joey Logano with a 14th-place average result over the last last three years.

Handicapping races here at Bristol can be difficult. Like we saw at Martinsville a couple weeks ago, one minor mistake by a team can ruin their entire race. This is the second short track race of the season, so in addition to history here at Bristol Motor Speedway, we’re going to consider how teams performed at Martinsville this year as well as momentum through the first seven races of 2016.

Yahoo! A Group Picks for Bristol

Kyle Busch (8 starts remaining) – We talked ourselves out of putting Kyle Busch on our roster last weekend at Texas and he went on to win the race, making it two victories in a row for this #18 team. We’re not going to make that mistake again. Rowdy is a five-time winner in the Sprint Cup Series here at Bristol Motor Speedway and there’s no doubt in our mind that he will be a contender once again here on Sunday afternoon. Remember, if it wasn’t for the blown tire at Fontana, Kyle Busch’s worst finish thus far in 2016 would be 4th. You can’t beat momentum like that. Kyle ran 8th in last year’s fall race here at Bristol (he missed the spring race due to his leg injuries) but he led the most laps that day (192) and had the 2nd-best driver rating in that race (127.2). Last but not least–and in case you forgot–Rowdy dominated the race at Martinsville a couple weeks ago, and although that track is a lot different than Bristol, they are both short tracks.

Photo Credit: Jeff Zelevansky/Getty Images
Photo Credit: Jeff Zelevansky/Getty Images

Jimmie Johnson (8 starts remaining) – We’re going the safe route here and throwing Jimmie Johnson on our roster as the second A Group driver. He’s currently on a three-race streak of top 5 finishes here at Bristol Motor Speedway and he had a solid top 10 car at Martinsville a couple weeks ago despite starting 24th. While we do like Kevin Harvick this week, we only have 7 starts remaining so we’re going to keep him on the bench. We also like the Penske Fords of Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski this weekend, especially for qualifying points, and might throw one of those guys on here instead of Jimmie before locking in on Friday morning. This would also be a great track for Matt Kenseth to turn his season around (he’s won two of the last five Bristol races), but can you really trust the #20 team right now? We can’t. As far as the rest of the A Group drivers, we don’t really see a reason to dig any deeper than the top two or three, depending on your start situation of course.

Edit: We’re going with Joey Logano alongside Kyle Busch in the A Group for Bristol.

Yahoo! B Group Picks for Bristol

First let’s talk about “The Big Three” in the B Group: Carl Edwards, Martin Truex, Jr., and Austin Dillon. We’re not putting any of them on our roster this week. Carl Edwards won this race two years ago and he has three top 10s in the last four Bristol races, but we’re still not picking him because we don’t want to waste a start at a track that’s as unpredictable as Bristol can be. We’re going with the underdogs this week, although if you have eight or nine Edwards starts left, we wouldn’t argue with you putting him on your roster. We only have seven. Now, Martin Truex, Jr. hasn’t finished better than 20th in his last five Bristol starts, so he’s out on that alone. Austin Dillon should be a good pick again this week, as he has finished 13th or better in three of his four Cup starts here at Bristol, but like Edwards we’re going to save him. We’d rather have Dillon for the intermediate tracks, and we’re already down to six starts left with him. So, let’s get to our picks…

Photo Credit: Daniel Shirey/NASCAR via Getty Images
Photo Credit: Daniel Shirey/NASCAR via Getty Images

Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. (9 starts remaining) – This #17 team has greatly improved at qualifying this season (12.3 average start) and when they happens with a team like this, the good finishes tend to come sooner rather than later. Ricky did have that 5th-place run at Fontana, and with his 16th-place finish at Texas last Saturday night, he has now finished inside that mark in four of the last six Cup races. Stenhouse did finish 32nd at Martinsville a couple weeks ago, but he’s terrible at that track. Here at Bristol, though, he has three top 6 finishes in the last four events and owns an average finish of 11.2 in six career starts here. You can’t argue with results, and that’s what Ricky tends to get here in Thunder Valley.

Paul Menard (7 starts remaining) – Menard is coming off of that great run at Martinsville a couple weeks ago (he finished 8th) but that has been his only top 10 finish of the season thus far. However, we’re confident that he may be able to grab a second here at Bristol on Sunday afternoon. Menard actually has a nice little record here in Thunder Valley, as he has six finishes of 11th or better in the last eight races here. Like Stenhouse, Menard may not run the prettiest races here, but he gets the finishes and that’s all that matters. He also has zero DNFs here at Bristol with a career-worst finish of just 32nd over 17 total starts at “The Bullring.”

Photo Credit: Brian Lawdermilk/Getty Images
Photo Credit: Brian Lawdermilk/Getty Images

Kyle Larson (9 starts remaining) – Kyle Larson is another driver that is coming off of a great finish at Martinsville (he finished 3rd), and he’s actually had a pretty solid last month of racing overall. Kyle finished 14th at Texas last Saturday night and that makes it three top 15s in the last four Sprint Cup races for this kid. Yeah, he’s been pretty disappointing this year, and his unpredictability is quite frustrating, but Larson is still adjusting to a new crew chief and we think this #42 team is starting to gain momentum. Not only that, but Larson has finished 7th and 10th in the last two spring races here at Bristol and led 90 laps in this race last year. It’s a risky pick but you never know what Kyle Larson is going to show up during the race. One of these times he’s going to come from nowhere and get his first Sprint Cup win.

Ryan Newman (8 starts remaining) – “The Rocketman” has posted just one top 10 finish over the first seven Sprint Cup races of 2016, but that was at Martinsville, which is the only other short track we’ve stopped at so far. So that’s good news. Newman also ran 5th in this event one year ago and followed that up with a solid 10th-place finish in the fall race. Also, this #31 team has only really had one terrible finish thus far in 2016, and that was at Phoenix. So we’re going to go the safe route here and stick with Newman. There are a lot of sleeper options in the B Group this week, though.

Over the last four Bristol races, only four drivers have a better average driver rating than Jamie McMurray, which is pretty impressive considering he has just one top 10 finish over that span. What that tells us, though, is that this #1 team runs well but doesn’t necessarily get the finish. He is a solid option this week as well. Kasey Kahne posted four straight top 10s at Bristol from 2012 to 2014 but his best finish in the last three races here is 16th. He’s unpredictable enough on the intermediate tracks, let alone short tracks, so we’re not touching the #5 car. Aric Almirola came home 3rd in this race two years ago and 13th in the 2015 spring event, so there’s some sleeper value there. Finally, Greg Biffle has four finishes of 12th or better in the last six Bristol races, and he finished 12th at Martinsville a couple weeks ago, so the #16 Ford might be worth a shot.

Yahoo! C Group Picks for Bristol

Photo Credit: Brian Lawdermilk/NASCAR via Getty Images
Photo Credit: Brian Lawdermilk/NASCAR via Getty Images

Ty Dillon is in the #14 Chevrolet this weekend, and in the two races he’s ran that car in 2016, he’s come home 17th and 15th. He’s never made a Sprint Cup start here at “The Bullring” but Ty did finish 5th and 4th in the two Xfinity races here last season. As far as who to pair with him, we typically put either Chase Elliott or Ryan Blaney on our roster every week. Chase has three top 10s in the last four Sprint Cup races while Blaney has one. Chase also ran top 10 in both Xfinity races here last season, so for our team this week we’re going with Ty Dillon and Chase Elliott in the C Group. We have eight starts remaining with both drivers.

If you’re looking for a real deep sleeper and start save option, we’d recommend David Ragan. He qualified 4th for this race last season while driving the #55 Toyota and wound up finishing 21st at Martinsville a couple of weeks ago in his #23 car.

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Texas Race Day NASCAR Betting Picks

By
Jordan McAbee
-
Photo Credit: Jonathan Ferrey/NASCAR via Getty Images

Now that qualifying and practice are over, we have a clearer view on which drivers will be able to contend in tonight’s Duck Commander 500 at Texas Motor Speedway–not that we didn’t know before. Essentially, the top three drivers here are the ones that are going to be contending for the win (as long as nothing crazy goes on during the race). Those guys are Jimmie Johnson, Kevin Harvick, and Kyle Busch. This track likes to eat up tires so it’s going to be very important for these guys to take care of their equipment on Saturday night. Additionally, this race is going to start in the late afternoon and end at night, which means the track is going to go through a transition.

Jimmie Johnson remains the favorite this weekend after starting out there as well. He’s currently listed at 4.5-to-1 odds. Kevin Harvick and Joey Logano follow him at 6-to-1 while Brad Keselowski (6.75-to-1) is in 4th.

Race Day Betting Picks for the Texas Duck Commander 500

The driver odds in this post are accurate as of 12:00 pm ET on April 9, 2016 and came from Bovada.

Harvick putting ear radio piece in
Photo Credit: Chris Trotman/NASCAR via Getty Images

“ALL IN” BET: Kevin Harvick (+600) – We could have sworn that we saw a tweet from the #4 team’s crew chief, Rodney Childers, and he was downright pissed off after their top 5 run at Martinsville was ruined last weekend thanks to the last set of tires put on the car. Unfortunately, we’ve either gone crazy, or that tweet has been deleted. Either way, it has to be frustrating to have such a good run be taken off the board when you’re so close to finishing. But you know what will relieve that headache in a hurry? A trip to victory lane. Although Harvick has never won here at Texas Motor Speedway, he’s been damn close as of late, and it’s bound to happen soon. The #4 Chevrolet came home 2nd and 3rd in the two races here last season and finished 2nd in the 2014 fall race as well. Tonight, Harvick is going to have to come from mid-pack to get to the front, but there’s no doubt he has the car to do it. He had one of the best ten-lap averages during final practice on Friday and there are plenty of people pointing to the #4 car as the car to beat tonight–including Jeff Gordon (see tweet here) as well as Rodney Childers (see tweet here). That second guy might be a little biased but we trust Jeff Gordon, and when the Duck Commander is all said and done tonight we think Harvick will be the guy in victory lane.

BET OF THE DAY: Carl Edwards Top 5 Finish (+120) – We’re not sure if this is a typo or what, but as soon as we saw the odds for this prop bet we jumped all over it. For some reason the odds-makers aren’t giving a lot of love to our pole sitter today and think he’s going to finish outside of the top 5. We respectfully disagree. Not only has Cousin Carl finished 7th or better in all but one race this year, but he’s the only driver to complete 100% of the laps in the last 25 Sprint Cup races, and he also has the best average finish over that span. Yes, better than every other driver. Edwards ran 5th at Atlanta earlier this year and finished 5th in the 2014 fall race here at Texas as well. This #19 team is knocking on the door of a win anytime soon, and we think they’re going to be a major contender in the Duck Commander 500 tonight. It’s worth going big on this prop bet tonight and maybe throwing some down on Edwards to straight up win as well.

[mk_fancy_title color=”#0c0c0c” size=”30″ font_weight=”bolder” font_family=”Economica” font_type=”google” align=”center”]Our “Bet of the Day” Picks are 3-1 this year.[/mk_fancy_title]
[vc_progress_bar values=”%5B%7B%22label%22%3A%22Wins%22%2C%22value%22%3A%2275%22%2C%22color%22%3A%22bar_green%22%7D%2C%7B%22label%22%3A%22Losses%22%2C%22value%22%3A%2225%22%2C%22color%22%3A%22bar_red%22%7D%5D” units=”%”]
Photo Credit: Chris Trotman/Getty Images
Photo Credit: Chris Trotman/Getty Images

Kyle Busch (+105) over Joey Logano – We have Kyle Busch ranked solidly inside the top 5 for tonight’s Duck Commander 500. This #18 team has been on absolute fire this season, and if it wasn’t for a blown tire at Fontana, Kyle Busch’s worst finish in 2016 would probably be 4th. That’s incredible. He’s also coming off of a dominating win at Martinsville last weekend, and he dominated the XFinity race here at Texas last night as well. So to say Rowdy Busch has momentum is an understatement. Meanwhile, Joey Logano has to be in a daze for just how terrible his car was last week, and this #22 Ford has been anything but a reliable pick here in 2016; Logano has as many finishes outside of the top 10 as he does inside this year. The one thing Joey does have going for him is that he starts on the outside pole, but it’s not about where you start, it’s where you finish. We’re not jumping all over this prop bet today but we are putting a little cash on the line that Kyle Busch will finish ahead of Joey Logano in the Duck Commander 500.

BET TO AVOID: Joey Logano (+600) – Has Joey Logano been an honest contender for the win at all this season? He has that 2nd-place finish at Las Vegas from a month ago, but nobody really had the #22 Ford as a major threat to win that race. That’s the only time we can think of. Anyway, somehow the odds-makers have Joey as 2nd in terms of the favorites for Saturday night’s Duck Commander 500, and tied with Kevin Harvick. Yeah, Logano did win this race back in 2014, but his last four races here have ended with the #22 Ford in 40th, 4th, and 12th. Joey will start from 2nd in tonight’s race, but we didn’t see the speed out of him during the practice sessions this weekend that would make him even a solid top 5 threat on Saturday night, let alone capable of winning. Don’t let the qualifying effort fool you, and don’t waste your money on Logano this week.

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