We are now seven races into the 2016 NASCAR Sprint Cup season and there have been plenty of great stories that have developed. First, the low downforce package has produced some of the best racing we’ve seen in the last ten years, as well as some of the closest finishes (see Daytona and Phoneix). Second, Kyle Busch looks even better than last season (when he won the championship) and has posted six top 5 finishes in the first seven races, including wins at Martinsville and Texas. Finally, let’s not forget about the impressive rookie performances of Chase Elliott and Ryan Blaney, who have already established themselves as weekly top 10 threats.
And then there’s Matt Kenseth.
Fans of the #20 team are starting to enter “freak out mode” right about now, as Kenseth is off to his worst start in the last seven years. When you take a look at his average finish since Daytona–we chose not to include that crapshoot of a race–it’s right at 18th, far and above his worst since 2010. Matt’s average in the six races after Daytona in the six seasons from 2010 through 2015 was 10th, so that puts into perspective just how bad he’s doing now in 2016.
Is there really a cause for concern, though?
To put it simply, no.
Last year, Matt Kenseth averaged a finish of 14.7 in the six races following Daytona and wound up winning five races before it was all said and done. He was also one of the championship favorites before his suspension because of the feud with Joey Logano. Not to mention, the #20 Toyota actually hasn’t performed too bad here in 2016, it’s just the finishes that are eluding this team.
Over the six-race span since Daytona, Matt Kenseth is averaging a driver rating of 99.1 despite his less-than-stellar average result. That rating is 7th-best in the Sprint Cup Series. He has also led 124 total laps over that same span, which comes in at 6th-most in the series, just 29 laps behind Jimmie Johnson (who has two wins). That’s also more laps led than guys such as Joey Logano, Kurt Busch, Dale Earnhardt, Jr., Brad Keselowski, and Denny Hamlin have.
Matt Kenseth’s Chase Chances in 2016
It’s going to take a lot for Matt Kenseth to miss NASCAR’s version of the playoffs, even if the disappointing finishes continue on into summer. The fact of the matter is that NASCAR allows 16 drivers to make The Chase, despite the fact that there’s only about 25 teams competing at a level that would be considered “above minimal performance.” If you took out the restrictor plate races (since pretty much anyone could win those), there’s really only about 18 to 20 teams that could legitimately make the playoff field.
Currently Matt Kenseth is sitting in 12th-place in the points standings with a 10-point lead over 16th place (yes, we’re already looking). Let’s take out the drivers that we know are nearly a lock to win a race this year (Edwards, Logano, Earnhardt, Jr., Kurt Busch, and maybe Truex, Jr.) as well as those that have already punched their ticket to this year’s Chase (Kyle Busch, Johnson, Harvick, Hamlin, Keselowski). That’s ten drivers, so we have six Chase spots left.
Austin Dillon is currently 10th in points and is on his way to a breakout year, so we’ll give him a spot. Down to five. Chase Elliott (14th in points) is driving well enough to win a race, and could make the Chase on points, so that leaves us with four spots left. So that leaves the following drivers to fight it out for the remaining entries: Kenseth, Jamie McMurray, A.J. Allmendinger, Kasey Kahne, Ricky Stenhouse, Jr., Kyle Larson, Ryan Blaney, and Paul Menard.
Unless we somehow have four (very) surprising winners from here until the Chase cutoff, we like Kenseth’s chances. A lot.
Determining Kenseth’s Fantasy Value
Fantasy NASCAR players who have had Matt Kenseth on their roster this season have suffered through six races in which he has finished outside of the top 10, compared to just one where has finished inside that mark–and that was at Phoenix of all places. With that being said, Kenseth has led at least two laps in every race this season, except for…you guessed it, Phoenix. To say that picking the #20 Toyota is a gamble right now would be an understatement. However…this #20 team isn’t a bunch of scrubs off the street. They are putting competitive race cars on the track week in and week out, they’re just not getting the finishes.
The next race is the Food City 500 at Bristol Motor Speedway, though, which Kenseth is the defending winner of. He also won there back in 2013, and he has ended up inside the top 10 in nine of the last thirteen races in “Thunder Valley.” This weekend will be an excellent bounce-back opportunity for this #20 team, and if they can somehow get to victory lane, we can all stop talking about their struggles. Don’t forget that Joe Gibbs Racing has won three of the seven races this year.
