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Best Bets for the NASCAR Race at Bristol (Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race)

By
Jordan McAbee
-
Daniel Suarez's #99 Chevrolet on pit road grid at Homestead-Miami Speedway
Photo Credit: Sean Gardner/Getty Images

We’re off to Bristol Motor Speedway this weekend for the Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race. There are 500 laps scheduled around this half-mile bullring, under the lights, with a lot on the line for Playoff drivers on the bubble. It’s bound to be a great race to say the least.

Last week at Richmond, I constantly noted how predictable the races can be at that track, and my betting card was larger than usual. It also absolutely crushed once again (you really thought I wouldn’t toot my own horn?). This week at Bristol, though, the race can turn upside down for a driver very quickly, and from a betting perspective, I don’t particularly like how crazy this track can get. Therefore, I’m sticking to a smaller card for Bristol–and smaller bet amounts than usual–and rolling off into Las Vegas next weekend. I still have some bets I like this weekend, though.

Bristol Betting Card

#JordanJinx

Kyle Larson to Win (+750) – You may be asking, “how in the world did you get Kyle Larson at +750?” Well, as I’ve mentioned before, you have to take advantage of boosts when you get them. Caesars was offering a 50% profit boost this week, so it boosted Larson from +500 to +750 to win. I also grabbed Larson at +600 earlier in the week on BetRivers. Make sure you’re paying attention to early lines and my Twitter feed because the great value doesn’t last long. Anyway, Larson has never won at Bristol but he’s always been really, really good here. Take this statistic: over the last six races of relevant Bristol data (2020, 2018, and 2017), Kyle Larson has the 2nd-most fastest laps…and he missed both races in 2020. My algorithm really likes Larson this week and this +750 value was too good to pass up.

Favorite Bet of the Week

Daniel Suarez Top 20 Finish (-150) – If you know me at all, you know that I’m not a big fan of Daniel Suarez. In fact, he’s one of two drivers that I dislike that have me blocked on Twitter. But anyway, I had to smash this top 20 bet with Suarez for Saturday night because here’s the thing: he’s actually pretty good at Bristol Motor Speedway, and on steep tracks in general. Suarez has finished inside the top 20 in seven of his eight starts here in “Thunder Valley,” even ending up 18th with that junk Gaunt Brothers car last season. This year, the #99 Chevrolet finished 9th at Dover and inside the top 15 in three of the four races on steep ovals.

Rest of Jordan’s Card

Ryan Preece Top 20 Finish (+160) – Considering Ryan Preece has only finished inside the top 20 in 10 of the 28 races this season (35.7%), this bet might not seem like a great one at first glance, but Bristol is a different animal–and Ryan Preece has done a good job of taming the beast (at least when it comes to expectations of Preece). In four starts here in “Thunder Valley,” Preece has an average finish of 15.4, and in the two races last year he ended up 12th and 9th. Am I expecting that to happen again on Saturday night? Absolutely not. Is it possible? Yes it is. Preece also finished 18th at Dover this year, which is the track I’m using the most as a comparable option for Bristol.

Chase Elliott Top 5 Finish (+115) – My algorithm has Chase Elliott projected to finish 2nd on Saturday night behind his teammate Kyle Larson, so it’s probably worth throwing some coin down on Chase as the outright winner, too, but my favorite bet including last year’s Cup Series Champion is this top 5 prop at +115 odds. You have to jump over to BetRivers to grab it (DraftKings Sportsbook has it at +100) but it’s great value and reminds me of the Logano top 5 bet at Richmond last weekend at +110. Chase has finished 7th, 5th, and 3rd in the last three Bristol night races and also ended up 3rd at Dover earlier this year.

Chase Elliott to Win (+850) – Yep… as I said a little bit ago, worth throwing down some coin here. Also, if you don’t want to use that 50% Caesars profit boost on Larson, you can get Elliott at +1050 over there.

Kurt Busch (-104) over Martin Truex, Jr. – It was quite surprising to see Martin Truex, Jr. be the favorite in this head-to-head. Here’s the thing about MTJ at Bristol: he’s not very good. Has he had fast cars and a couple of good runs in the past? Yes he has. Is he on the pole this weekend, which gives him great track position to start and a good pit stall? Yes he is. But has he ever really gotten the finishes at Bristol? Hard no. Only three times in thirty career starts (10%) has Martin Truex, Jr. finished inside the top 10 at this race track, and only once since 2012. Kurt Busch, on the other hand, has five top 10s in the last seven Bristol races and is a six-time winner here–and I wouldn’t be surprised if he challenges for a seventh win on Saturday night with as fast as those Chip Ganassi cars have been lately.

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Bristol Slingshot NASCAR Fantasy Picks (Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race)

By
Jordan McAbee
-
Kyle Busch's pit crew walking Skittles Toyota down the grid at Bristol 2020
Photo Credit: Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images

The 2021 NASCAR Cup Series continues on this weekend with the final scheduled Saturday night race of the season, the Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway. The drivers have 500 laps to complete under the lights here in “Thunder Valley” on Saturday, and we’re bound to see plenty of beating and banging with so much on the line for many of the Playoff drivers.

We did race here at Bristol earlier in the year, but don’t forget: that was on the dirt track. Honestly, it’s hard to even consider any of the data from that race worth much. If you’re looking for similar track data to look into this weekend from races in 2021, take a look at the steeper tracks such as Dover (more correlation, in my opinion), Homestead, and even Darlington.

*Please note: the picks and suggestions below are my opinions and strategy for the Slingshot Fantasy Auto Contest. These are not meant to sway your thinking in any way, but rather give you insight into the drivers I am most likely to pick on race day.*

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Jordan’s Strategy Breakdown Video

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Slingshot Fantasy Auto Contest Picks for the Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race at Bristol

The Safe

Kyle Larson ($12,500) – You’ll be hard pressed to find any statistic that doesn’t point you toward Kyle Larson being a great pick this weekend. Looking back at the four races here from 2017 and 2018–remember, Larson didn’t race at Bristol in 2020 due to his suspension–he had average running positions of 3.5, 4.5, 3.1, and 6.6…and that was in worse equipment than he’s in now. On similar tracks this year–Homestead, Darlington, and Dover–Larson has had average running positions of 4.8, 7.3, 3.0, and 1.5. Need I say more? Kyle Larson starts 5th on Saturday night, and while he’s never won here at Bristol, he’s finished 9th or better in five of his last six starts and has also led nearly 550 laps over that span as well. He could easily win the first two Stages this weekend, lead the most laps, and win the race.

Kyle Busch ($12,300) – Love him or hate him, you have to admit that Kyle Busch is the man at Bristol Motor Speedway. With eight career victories at this race track, Rowdy owns 33.3% of the wins here among active drivers, and if you add in his brother Kurt’s wins, the Busch Brothers have 58.3% of the wins here among active drivers. On Saturday night, Kyle Busch will be a threat to win the race, and he has some place differential potential as well since he starts back in 9th. He’s finished 4th or better in six of the last seven Bristol races, and led 100+ laps in both events here last season.

Kurt Busch ($9,500) – In case you didn’t do the math before, Kurt Busch is a six-time winner at Bristol Motor Speedway, and with him starting back in 15th, that makes him a great option in this Slingshot Fantasy Auto Contest. The Chip Ganassi Racing Chevrolets have had incredible speed over the last few months, and there’s no reason to think they’re going to slow down this weekend at Bristol. As far as Kurt goes, he’s finished 9th or better in five of his last seven Bristol starts, and even won the fall race here back in 2018. At just $9,500 in Slingshot salary on Saturday night, he’s a great play in this game.

The Risky

Chase Elliott ($11,800) – The fall race at Bristol is where Chase Elliott really turns things up a notch, as he’s finished 7th, 5th, and 3rd in the last three races here in August/September. Additionally, Chase has led 23+ laps in each of the last five Bristol events, and has won three of the last four Stages. Surprisingly, last year’s Cup Series Champion hasn’t gone to victory lane in “Thunder Valley” (except for the All Star Race last season) but that should change sooner rather than later. Looking at the Dover race this year, which I consider the most similar track to Bristol that we’ve ran at in 2021, Elliott finished 3rd and had a 5.6 average running position. He’s a “Risky” Slingshot pick on Saturday night because he starts up in 4th, but Chase has legitimate top 5 potential and could even win the race.

Ryan Blaney ($10,600) – Bad luck has often been an issue for Ryan Blaney at Bristol Motor Speedway, but you can’t ignore the speed that he has had at this race track over the years. When looking at laps led, Blaney is actually 8th-best among active drivers with 439 laps led at Bristol, and 2nd in that category among drivers that haven’t won here (only Kyle Larson with 641 laps led has more). Blaney did post a career-best 4th-place finish here back in 2019, and he’s wound up 13th or better in five of his last seven Bristol starts. What you really have to like about this #12 team is how they’re running lately, though, with top 5s in five of the last eight races. Even last week’s 10th-place run at Richmond was a very good night for Ryan Blaney at his worst track.

Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. ($7,900) – Here’s a fun statistic for you: among active drivers at Bristol Motor Speedway, Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. is 7th-best when it comes to top 5 finishes. No, that’s not a typo. Bristol has been a good track to Stenhouse, especially prior to the 2019 season; in the 12 races here from 2013 to 2018, Ricky finished inside the top 5 four times and also had 6th- and 9th-place finishes to his credit. Unfortunately, if you’re looking at recent races, Stenhouse isn’t going to stand out because he’s ended up 24th or worse in each of the last five Bristol events, with each of the last four ending with him in 33rd or worse. We might as well call him Risky Stenhouse, Jr. because this is a big gamble, but Stenhouse has pretty big upside this weekend under the lights.

The Winner

“Race Winner” Pick = Kyle Larson or Kyle Busch – If you listened to this week’s podcast episode of Stacking Dennys, you know that RotoDoc and I agreed that it’d come down to one of the Kyles on Saturday night. Now I just have to figure out which one I want to go with…

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FanDuel NASCAR Driver Projections & Picks for Bristol (Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race)

By
Jordan McAbee
-
Kurt Busch 2019 Fantasy NASCAR
Photo Credit: Chris Graythen/Getty Images

The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Bristol Motor Speedway this weekend for the Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race on Saturday night. This is a 500-lap event, which means there are going to be a total of 50 FanDuel fantasy points available, and you can expect to see those laps led spread out over multiple drivers. Such a long race also means that it’s going to be even more important for your drivers to finish all (or most) of the laps on Saturday night. We did race here at Bristol earlier in the year, but that was on the dirt, so it’s not really relevant. Still, older Bristol data gives us a relatively clear picture of who should be good this weekend. Now let’s get to the FanDuel projections!

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Optimal Lineup According to Jordan’s Projections

The optimal FanDuel lineup for Bristol Saturday night according to my Projections is:

  • Kyle Larson
  • Kyle Busch
  • Kurt Busch
  • Chris Buescher
  • Ryan Newman

Confidence Rating = 7.1/10. I don’t mind this lineup at all. You have the two most likely dominators and potential race winners in Kyle Larson and Kyle Busch, as well as Kurt Busch, who could end up challenging for the win as well. The biggest question mark to me with this lineup is Ryan Newman, but you could always go Daniel Suarez instead. If you don’t like Kurt Busch in your lineup, going down to Alex Bowman is a pretty solid choice as well. The highest projected lineup with Bowman the Showman in it is: Kyle Larson, Kyle Busch, Alex Bowman, Austin Dillon, and Ryan Preece.

FanDuel “Safe” DFS Picks for Bristol (Cash Lineups)

Kyle Larson fist in air after winning 2021 Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway
Photo Credit: Brian Lawdermilk/Getty Images

Kyle Larson ($14,000) – I welcome anyone’s argument as to why you shouldn’t play Kyle Larson in cash this weekend, because I can’t think of one. Looking at other steep tracks this year, Larson has finished 4th or better in all four of those races and has also led the most laps (424). Here at Bristol, he’s finished 6th or better in four of his last six starts along with a 9th-place finish during that three-year span. Larson has also led 62+ laps in four of the last six races in “Thunder Valley,” hitting 200+ in two of them. He’s the most likely driver to dominate here on Saturday night and will contend for the win as well if nothing crazy goes on.

Chris Buescher ($6,000) – The #17 Ford will start from back in 25th here on Saturday night, but there’s legitimate mid-teens finishing upside when it comes to Chris Buescher, and at only $6,000 on FanDuel, that means I have no problem playing him in cash lineups. Buescher finished 8th the last time we raced here at Bristol in the fall, and has ended up 19th or better in each of the last three fall races at this track. Looking at other steep tracks this season, Buescher finished 19th at Homestead, 9th in both Darlington races, and 17th at Dover.

FanDuel “Risky” DFS Picks for Bristol (Tournament Lineups)

Photo Credit: Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images

Kurt Busch ($10,000) – Yes, Kurt Busch is listed in the optimal lineup according to my projections, but he doesn’t exactly “pop” in my projections by any means. However, there’s plenty of reasons to be overweight on Kurt Busch in tournaments this weekend. First off, he’s really good at Bristol Motor Speedway. In addition to having six career victories here, Busch also has a healthy 30% top 5 finishing rate at this race track. Also, let’s not forget that the Chip Ganassi cars have been really, really fast lately. If this #1 Chevrolet has the same amount of speed here on Saturday night that we’ve seen it have over the last three months, Kurt could definitely be a significant lap leader in the Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race.

Ross Chastian ($9,500) – Again, these Ganassi cars are super fast right now. Ross Chastain showed legitimate top 5 speed yet again at Richmond last weekend, and has now finished 3rd and 7th in the two Playoff races thus far. He doesn’t have any good finishes here at Bristol in the Cup Series yet, but that’s because he’s never been in good equipment here either. Even with the shitbox cars from Premium Motorsports, Chastain was able to finished 26th, 29th, and 26th in his last three starts in “Thunder Valley,” which is pretty good, all things considered. Melon Man starts 17th on Saturday night but could easily challenge for a top 10 finish.

FanDuel Driver Projections for the Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race at Bristol

The following chart takes into account the very basics: the starting position and the projected finish of each driver. The projected finishes are averaged from six different ranking systems. Also factored in are projected laps led for each driver. You can click the headers below to sort the chart by that attribute. By default it is sorted by average projected FPTS.

DriverFanDuel SalaryAvg Proj PtsStarting PositionCeiling Proj PtsDollar Per Pt
Kyle Larson$14,000106.285120.80$132
Kyle Busch$13,50099.009112.00$136
Denny Hamlin$13,00091.172103.00$143
Chase Elliott$12,50088.92499.70$141
Kevin Harvick$11,00088.00894.00$125
Ryan Blaney$10,80087.257100.00$124
Joey Logano$11,50085.82394.90$134
Kurt Busch$10,00085.701596.60$117
Alex Bowman$9,00083.401194.50$108
Ross Chastain$9,50080.901792.20$117
Christopher Bell$9,70080.55691.20$120
Austin Dillon$8,00080.401884.70$100
William Byron$9,30080.151488.70$116
Brad Keselowski$10,50079.651087.50$132
Tyler Reddick$8,50079.401393.30$107
Martin Truex Jr.$12,00079.15196.70$152
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.$7,20075.552391.40$95
Ryan Newman$5,80075.552485.00$77
Chris Buescher$6,00075.302587.00$80
Daniel Suarez$6,30075.052188.10$84
Bubba Wallace$7,00073.452885.50$95
Aric Almirola$8,70071.151277.80$122
Ryan Preece$5,00070.852788.00$71
Matt DiBenedetto$7,50069.701974.60$108
Erik Jones$5,50069.202278.00$79
Cole Custer$6,50068.352678.50$95
Chase Briscoe$6,70067.952083.00$99
Corey LaJoie$4,50066.503175.00$68
Michael McDowell$4,50060.751675.20$74
Justin Haley$3,50060.402968.00$58
J.J. Yeley$2,00059.553566.50$34
Anthony Alfredo$4,00059.153062.50$68
Quin Houff$3,00056.203461.50$53
B.J. McLeod$2,50054.953260.50$45
Garrett Smithley$2,00054.603658.00$37
David Starr$2,50054.503862.00$46
James Davison$2,00054.253760.00$37
Josh Bilicki$3,00053.603358.00$56
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Back at Bristol — Will It Be Busch vs. Larson? – Stacking Dennys NASCAR Podcast

By
Jordan McAbee
-
Chase Elliott Night Owl 2020 Paint Scheme
Photo Credit: Brendan Droppo Design

The 1st Round of the NASCAR Playoffs concludes this weekend at Bristol Motor Speedway under the lights on Saturday night. Jordan McAbee and Nick Giffen (a.k.a. “RotoDoc”) are here to break down the upcoming Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race, as well as:

  • 0:33 – Richmond reactions
  • 10:45 – Playoff update. Who’s in and who’s out after Bristol?
  • 19:30 – Larson’s doesn’t have as big of an edge in the Championship hunt now
  • 24:10 – The 2022 NASCAR Schedule
  • 29:25 – What are your favorite paint schemes?
  • 43:25 – Bristol race Preview
  • 1:04:30 – Is it sleeper week?
  • 1:21:00 – How to attack Bristol in DFS
  • 1:31:45 – Does Cole Custer even deserve a ride next year?
  • 1:40:20 – Predicted Bristol winners

You can listen below by using that embedded player or listen on:

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Starting Lineup for Bristol (Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race)

By
Jordan McAbee
-
Martin Truex, Jr. #19 Toyota Bass Pro Shops racing at Dover 2020
Photo Credit: Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images

Round 1 of the Playoffs concludes this weekend with the Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway on Saturday night. There are 500 laps scheduled to be ran on this half-mile bullring, and it’s sure to be an incredible race with a lot on the line among the drivers not currently locked into the next round of the Playoffs.

Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race at Bristol Starting Lineup

  1. Martin Truex, Jr.
  2. Denny Hamlin
  3. Joey Logano
  4. Chase Elliott
  5. Kyle Larson
  6. Christopher Bell
  7. Ryan Blaney
  8. Kevin Harvick
  9. Kyle Busch
  10. Brad Keselowski
  11. Alex Bowman
  12. Aric Almirola
  13. Tyler Reddick
  14. William Byron
  15. Kurt Busch
  16. Michael McDowell
  17. Ross Chastain
  18. Austin Dillon
  19. Matt DiBenedetto
  20. Chase Briscoe
  21. Daniel Suarez
  22. Erik Jones
  23. Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.
  24. Ryan Newman
  25. Chris Buescher
  26. Cole Custer
  27. Ryan Preece
  28. Bubba Wallace
  29. Justin Haley
  30. Anthony Alfredo
  31. Corey LaJoie
  32. BJ McLeod
  33. Josh Bilicki
  34. Quin Houff
  35. JJ Yeley
  36. Garrett Smithley
  37. James Davison
  38. David Starr

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