With NASCAR racing at Michigan for the first time with the NextGen car this weekend, and on a tire combination that hasn’t been used before, there is (understandably) some hesitancy from bettors on how to approach the upcoming Firekeepers Casino 400–at least until we see the cars on track during practice and qualifying on Saturday afternoon.
RotoDoc and I discussed this on the Stacking Dennys podcast this week as well, how there definitely seems to be some value out on the betting board early in the week, but it’s hard to be fully confident in anything with a few of the unknown variables.
With that being said, there is an early bet that I like quite a bit for qualifying on Saturday, and I actually talked myself into it during this week’s Stacking Dennys episode.
The Bet: Austin Cindric To Win Michigan Pole +2500
As mentioned before, NASCAR hasn’t raced at Michigan yet this year, and with a brand new tire combination being used, it’s hard to pull data from comparable tracks and consider it significant for Michigan this week. However, that’s all we have to work with, so let’s take a look at similar track data and how Austin Cindric qualified in those races.
Auto Club: Cindric qualified on the pole (Auto Club is the sister track to Michigan but with higher tire wear)
Las Vegas: Cindric qualified 3rd (highest-qualifying Ford)
So, to quickly recap here, on the four tracks that you can consider similar to Michigan, Austin Cindric has been the highest-qualifying Ford each time and was on the pole earlier this year at the other 2-mile race track.
Michigan International Speedway has been dominated by Ford as of late, both in terms of victory lane as well as the pole sitter. In 7 of the last 8 Michigan races, a Ford has gone on to win the race itself, and in 6 of the last 9 races here a Ford has won the pole in qualifying. Please note: I’m excluding the 2020 pole sitters in the pole winner numbers because those starting lineups weren’t set on speed, but both of those pole “winners” were Fords as well.
And one last note that probably doesn’t mean much but is still worth adding in: Cindric won the pole here at Michigan in the Xfinity Series last season.
At 25-to-1, I’ll take the highest-qualifying Ford all season at a Ford-dominated track any day of the week.
This line moved to 20/1
I’d still bet it but that’s about as short as I’d go.
NASCAR is at Pocono Raceway this weekend for the M&Ms Fan Appreciation 400 on Sunday. Nicknamed “The Tricky Triangle,” Pocono is a huge 2.5-mile flat track that has three very distinct corners. Strategy and fuel mileage has came into play here at Pocono in the past, but as far as raw speed, it’s going to be the drivers that are most comfortable with their setup that create the most speed on Sunday.
There are only 160 laps scheduled for Sunday’s race, which means place differential and finishing position rank a little bit higher in importance than usual for DraftKings, as the dominator points are more limited than in a, say, 301-lap race like we had last weekend. You’ll likely still need to have one dominator in your lineup.
NOTE: News broke on Sunday morning that Kurt Busch will NOT be racing today. He will be replaced by Ty Gibbs. Do NOT play Kurt Busch in DraftKings today. Ty Gibbs is not in the player pool so you can’t pick him.
Optimal Lineup According to Jordan’s Projections
The optimal DraftKings lineup for Pocono on Sunday according to my Projections is:
Denny Hamlin
Ross Chastain
Tyler Reddick
Erik Jones
Austin Cindric
Cole Custer
The 2nd-highest scoring lineup according to the projections is the same thing except switching out Denny Hamlin for Kyle Busch.
The 3rd-highest projected lineup is: Denny Hamlin, Christopher Bell, Tyler Reddick, Erik Jones, Brad Keselowski, Austin Cindric.
DraftKings NASCAR Cash Core Picks for M&Ms Fan Appreciation 400
Photo Credit: Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images
Kyle Busch ($10,600) OR Denny Hamlin ($10,400) – It’s really a toss-up here on who you want to go with. Both of these guys are elite Pocono racers and have a combined 10 Cup Series wins at “The Tricky Triangle” over a combined 66 starts. They’re also starting 1-2 for today’s race, so neither has place differential potential. I have Busch and Hamlin projected at pretty much the same amount of DraftKings FPTS points, and in practice on Saturday these two showed similar speed. Kyle Busch did make a longer run, though. Still, Hamlin is on the pole so he should be out front at the start of today’s race, so I give a slight edge to him, but like I said, it’s a toss-up on who you want to go with here.
Ross Chastain ($10,000) – The #1 team is notorious for lacking speed (and laps) in practice, but this weekend at Pocono, Chastain went out and put up the best 5-lap average on Saturday, the best single-lap time, and logged the 2nd-most laps. In qualifying, Chastain ended up 21st, though, which means he has great place differential potential in Sunday’s race and is a great cash core play. Ross’s record here at “The Tricky Triangle” is nothing great, but this season is all about what have you done for me lately. Chastain is a weekly top 5 threat and that’s no different this weekend.
Erik Jones ($7,600) – My projected FPTS for Erik Jones is probably a bit on the low side, but even so he pops up in over 95% of lineups when you run an optimizer to create 150 of them. This is one of his best tracks on the Cup Series schedule and in addition to DraftKings kind of under-pricing Jones this weekend, he went out and scraped the wall in qualifying, which will put in back in 34th when the M&Ms Fan Appreciation 400 goes green today. Without any major issues today, you can expect this #43 Chevrolet to finish in the mid-teens, but there’s top 10 upside here as well.
DraftKings NASCAR Tournament Picks for the M&Ms Fan Appreciation 400
Photo Credit: Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images
Christopher Bell ($8,900) – If you run a lineup optimizer for 150 lineups today using my projections, the guy who pops up 2nd-most behind Erik Jones is Christopher Bell–and for good reason. I have CBell projected to score 45 DraftKings FPTS today with an average projected finish of 9.0. He obviously has much higher potential than that. Fresh off his win at New Hampshire, Christopher Bell comes to a track where he’s only had one good finish in his Cup Series career: a 4th-place result back in 2020 when running for Leavine Family Racing. Still, CBell was a top 5 contender in last year’s race but cut a tire on lap 97, and the #20 Toyota ranked 2nd in 5-lap average during practice here at Pocono on Saturday behind Ross Chastain.
Austin Cindric ($7,200) – Another guy that is popping in my projections is Austin Cindric. Now, word of warning: picking rookies at Pocono typically doesn’t end up too well, but there is potential here. First, Cindric is in a Penske car, and we all know what kind of speed those Fords can put out at the big tracks. Additionally, Cindric won here at Pocono in the Xfinity Series last season, and the momentum that he has going right now is definitely something; over the last six races of the season, Cindric’s 7.7 average finish is 3rd-best in the series, and over the last 15 races, his average finish of 14.7 is 9th-best. My projections have Cindric with an average finish of 14.8 for today’s race and he’s still popping on the projections. Great tournament play in my book.
Michael McDowell ($6,500) – Give me this pivot off of the chalk Cole Custer ($6,300) down here. RotoDoc and I talked about this guy on the Stacking Dennys podcast this week (listen below if you haven’t yet). Michael McDowell is really good at Pocono. His career average finish of 27.3 here isn’t anything to get excited about, but you also have to consider the fact that McDowell ran in absolutely junk equipment for 8 of his 19 starts here. Since he’s gotten into decent equipment, he’s finished 25th or better in 10 of the last 11 races at “The Tricky Triangle,” including 7 finishes of 21st or better in the last 9 races here. McDowell will start from 25th today and with how this team is performing in 2022, he’s definitely someone I want to be overweight on in tournaments.
Stacking Dennys Podcast with Jordan & RotoDoc
Pocono DraftKings Driver Projections
The following chart takes into account the very basics: the starting position and the projected finish of each driver. The projected finishes are averaged from six different ranking systems. Also factored in are projected laps led and fastest laps for each driver. You can click the headers below to sort the chart by that attribute. By default it is sorted by average projected FPTS.
The NASCAR Cup Series is at New Hampshire Motor Speedway today for the Ambetter 301. Otherwise known as Loudon, this track is in the “short, flat” category, coming in at 1.058 miles in length with minimal banking in the corners (between 2 and 7 degrees of variable banking).
Since we haven’t raced at New Hampshire in the NextGen car yet, we’re going to be looking into data from similar tracks this weekend, which include Phoenix and Richmond specifically. You could also throw in Gateway as a comparable track, and some people add Martinsville into the mix, but if you listen to Stacking Dennys, you know why RotoDoc and I don’t really consider Martinsville all that similar to Loudon.
Optimal Lineup According to Jordan’s Projections
The optimal DraftKings lineup for New Hampshire on Sunday according to my Projections is:
Kyle Busch
Martin Truex, Jr.
Tyler Reddick
Chase Briscoe
Austin Dillon
Harrison Burton
The 2nd-highest projected lineup according to the projections is: Kyle Busch, Martin Truex, Jr., Kevin Harvick, Austin Cindric, Austin Dillon, Cole Custer. The 3rd-highest projected is pretty much the same as the 2nd-highest but switches out Harrison Burton instead of Cole Custer.
DraftKings NASCAR Picks for the Ambetter 301
Photo Credit: Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images
Kyle Busch ($11,000) AND Martin Truex, Jr. ($10,400) – The Joe Gibbs Racing teammates of Martin Truex, Jr. and Kyle Busch stacks are how many DraftKings players are going to start out their lineups today at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, and for good reason. Truex is on the pole at one of his best tracks (he led between 83 and 141 laps in every race here from 2016 through 2018) and Kyle Busch was blazing fast in practice but whiffed in qualifying and will start back in 17th. Both of these cars have the speed to win this race. Truex didn’t pop as much as Kyle Busch did on the speed chart during practice on Saturday, but that track position will be a major advantage for the #19 team today.
Chase Briscoe ($8,400) OR Austin Cindric ($7,600) – Chase Briscoe is going to be one of the highest-owned drivers on the slate today because he had a very poor qualifying lap and will start back in 29th when the Ambetter 301 goes green. In practice, his 10-lap average was 2nd-best behind Kyle Busch, so that’s going to bump up his ownership a bit, plus the fact that Briscoe has been really good on short, flat tracks this season (won at Phoenix and 11th at Richmond). With Briscoe likely getting all of that ownership, though, I don’t mind going slightly underweight on him and pivoting to someone like Austin Cindric. In practice on Saturday, Cindric ranked 8th-fastest in 15-lap average and he has room to move up and grab place differential points starting 28th.
Ty Dillon ($5,400) OR Harrison Burton ($5,200) – This isn’t a bad week to dig down further into the driver pool than usual (at least salary price-wise). Harrison Burton and Ty Dillon both start outside of the top 30 today and are priced under $5,500. Each of these drivers have potential to challenge for a top 20 finish, but when you’re looking at pure speed we’ve seen thus far, Burton is the better choice between the two. The #21 Ford ranked 6th-fastest in both 10-lap and 15-lap average during practice this weekend, plus Harrison was 11th-fastest in Green Flag Speed back at Richmond. Between these two, Burton should garner a higher ownership, so I don’t mind being a little underweight on him and a little overweight on Ty Dillon because I think they both have very similar upside this weekend–at least closer upside than many people realize.
Stacking Dennys Podcast with Jordan & RotoDoc
New Hampshire Ambetter 301 DraftKings Driver Projections
The following chart takes into account the very basics: the starting position and the projected finish of each driver. The projected finishes are averaged from six different ranking systems. Also factored in are projected laps led and fastest laps for each driver. You can click the headers below to sort the chart by that attribute. By default it is sorted by average projected FPTS.
The NASCAR Cup Series returns to Atlanta Motor Speedway this weekend for the Quaker State 400. This will be the second-ever race on the “new” Atlanta track, and if we learned anything from the first race this season, it’s that the track definitely has a superspeedway factor to it now, just like Daytona and Talladega. Because of that, DFS players will have to take a little different-than-normal approach this weekend when building lineups.
DraftKings Fantasy Strategy for Atlanta and Superspeedways
Photo Credit: Sean Gardner/Getty Images
Atlanta is now essentially a superspeedway track, so place differential and finishing position become the most important part of lineup construction this weekend. Dominator points are entirely spread out at these track types, especially fastest laps, and the randomness associated with these races make anyone in the field a contender.
Going back to finishing position and place differential for a second, though… Take a look at this chart below (click to make it bigger). It shows each driver’s base DraftKings scored by simply taking into account their starting position (top row) and finishing position (left column).
AS YOU CAN SEE, IT RARELY PAYS OFF TO TAKE THE GUYS STARTING UP FRONT!A DRIVER THAT STARTS 35TH AND FINISHES 12TH SCORES MORE DRAFTKINGS POINTS THAN A DRIVER STARTING 10TH THAT FINISHES 2ND!
Optimal Lineup According to Jordan’s Projections
The optimal DraftKings lineup for Atlanta on Sunday according to my Projections is:
Denny Hamlin
Joey Logano
William Byron
Bubba Wallace
Brad Keselowski
Corey LaJoie
DraftKings NASCAR Picks for the Quaker State 400
Photo Credit: Chris Graythen/Getty Images
The highest-owned drivers in DraftKings NASCAR this weekend are going to be Bubba Wallace ($8,700) and Brad Keselowski ($6,500) and by a wide margin. They started 32nd and 31st (respectively) and are big enough names that that is going to give their ownership a boost as well. Why is this important? Because it gives you an opportunity to get leverage on the DFS field. While these two drivers have very high upside this weekend, nothing is guaranteed at a superspeedway race. Therefore, it’s opportunistic to go underweight relative to the field on these drivers and try to get some leverage in case one (or both) wreck out. I’m not saying completely avoid these two drivers, but I’m going to be underweight on each of them (as well as underweight on these two in the same lineup together). Now that we’ve talked about the popular picks and strategy involved with them, let’s get into a couple picks that should be under-owned compared to their potential…
Erik Jones ($6,700) – While I do project Erik Jones to garner a significant amount over ownership in this race (over 30%), there are times where I like being overweight on the chalk as a strategy play. This is one of those times. First, I do think there is a possibility that my projections are a little high on Jones, as he’s sandwiched in between Austin Dillon ($6,900) and Brad Keselowski ($6,500) on the salary list–both of whom start further back than Jones. Add in the fact that DFS players tend to try and use up all of the cap space and we could see Jones in the mid-20s of ownership percentage on Sunday despite starting back in 25th. Additionally, Erik Jones has ranked inside the top 10 in Average Running Position in all three superspeedway races this year. I don’t mind having 40% Jones exposure here at Atlanta.
Todd Gilliland ($5,700) – It’s another superspeedway weekend, which means it’s #GillyGang time once again. This sub-$6,000 price range is going to have many NASCAR DFS players gravitating toward Corey LaJoie ($5,400) because of his 30th-place starting spot and good superspeedway record, and what’s going to happen is that guys like Todd Gilliland will get overlooked. This is where it’s a strategy call to flip the ownerships and bit and try and gain some leverage. Gilliland can compete for a top 10 finish this weekend if he keeps his car clean, and for the record, I also like being overweight on Harrison Burton ($5,500) in addition to Gilliland on Sunday.
Josh Bilicki ($4,900) – Really, you could throw all of the back markers–Garrett Smithley, Cody Ware, Josh Bilicki, and BJ McLeod–in here as strong tournament plays this weekend, but I’m going to highlight Bilicki here because I think his car is the best out of those four. This weekend, the vast majority of NASCAR DFS players aren’t even going to consider the drivers starting 33rd or worse despite these drivers all having the highest upside for place differential. As far as Bilicki goes, he’s in that “slightly better than a shitbox” #77 car for Spire Motorsports, but don’t forget that this is the same organization that finished 5th in the last Atlanta race with Corey LaJoie. On superspeedways this season, the #77 car finished 15th at Daytona, 16th at Atlanta, and 19th at Talladega.
NOTE: Do not play Josh Bilicki this week as he was replaced by Landon Cassill for this race. Unfortunately, DraftKings never added Cassill to the player pool.
Stacking Dennys Podcast with Jordan & RotoDoc
Atlanta Quaker State 400 DraftKings Driver Projections
The following chart takes into account the very basics: the starting position and the projected finish of each driver. The projected finishes are averaged from six different ranking systems. Also factored in are projected laps led and fastest laps for each driver. You can click the headers below to sort the chart by that attribute. By default it is sorted by average projected FPTS.
It’s 4th of July weekend so that means the NASCAR Cup Series is at Road America in Elkhart Lake, Wisconsin for the Kwik Trip 250 on Sunday. This will be the third road course race of the 2022 season, and Trackhouse Racing is undefeated on this track type thus far in the NextGen car, as Ross Chastain won at Circuit of the Americas and Daniel Suarez won at Sonoma. As far as Road America goes, this is a very abrasive race track and eats up tires quickly, so not only will the driver’s need a good setup and speed out of their race car to contend this weekend, but also be able to manage their tires over the course of a long run.
DraftKings Fantasy Strategy for Road America
Photo Credit: Sean Gardner/Getty Images
With this being the third road course race of the season, and with there being such a quick turnaround from Sonoma less than a month ago, I’m not expecting a lot of surprises in this race at Road America on Sunday. We know which cars are fast on the road courses this year, and as RotoDoc and I discussed on the Stacking Dennys podcast earlier this week, there’s no reason to think any teams are going to be significantly faster at this road course than they have in the previous two.
This is a very short race at only 62 laps. That means we’re looking at just 15.5 DraftKings FPTS for laps led on Sunday and probably around 22.5 DraftKings FPTS for fastest laps. In other words, don’t be overly concerned about dominator points! Putting together the best lineup this weekend will likely come down to place differential and finish points as opposed to dominator points.
Circuit of the Americas is the best comparable track that we have to look at, so make sure you go back and watch that race from earlier this year.
Optimal Lineup According to Jordan’s Projections
The optimal DraftKings lineup for Road America on Sunday according to my Projections is:
Ryan Blaney
AJ Allmendinger
William Byron
Kevin Harvick
Daniel Suarez
Justin Haley
UPDATE:
Numbers were wrong when I was using optimizer. The Tilley lineup is NOT my projected optimal.
Ryan Blaney ($9,200) – A lot of people are going to gravitate toward William Byron ($9,000) since he starts back in 29th, and while some may combine Willy B with Ryan Blaney, I don’t mind pivoting off of Byron and going to Blaney here. Plain and simple, Blaney is a more consistent road course racer than Byron is. Looking at the two road course races this season, Blaney finished 6th at Circuit of the Americas and 6th at Sonoma as well, while Byron came home 12th and 9th in those two races (respectively). Looking at Green Flag Speed in those two races, Blaney was 5th-fastest at COTA and 6th-fastest at Sonoma while Byron was 12th- and 15th-fastest (respectively).
Daniel Suarez ($7,700) – There’s a lot of chalk this week, and Daniel Suarez is one of them, unfortunately. But the #99 Chevrolet was super fast at the start of Circuit of the Americas before getting caught up on a restart pile-up, and then Suarez went on to win at Sonoma a month ago. This weekend, Daniel will roll off the grid from 17th when the Kwik Trip 250 goes green, and should be good for at least a top 10 finish when it’s all said and done. At just $7,700 on DraftKings, that’s hard to pass up. Be warned, though: the #JordanJinx is on Suarez this weekend.
Justin Haley ($5,900) – To me, Justin Haley is a “free space” when building DraftKings lineups this weekend. You’re getting a driver for under $6,000 in salary that starts back in 34th but has a legitimate shot at a top 20 finish on Sunday. That’s not something you pass up in DFS. In practice on Saturday morning, Haley posted the 25th-fastest lap, and looking at the two other road course races this season, the #31 Chevrolet came home 15th at Circuit of the Americas and 12th at Sonoma. Here at Road America last season, Haley finished 25th despite being in the underfunded #77 car for Spire Motorsports. You don’t need much out of him this weekend to hit value at his price point.
No surprise that @RotoDoc and I are on a very similar page for DFS today.
Road America Qwik Trip 250 DraftKings Driver Projections
The following chart takes into account the very basics: the starting position and the projected finish of each driver. The projected finishes are averaged from six different ranking systems. Also factored in are projected laps led and fastest laps for each driver. You can click the headers below to sort the chart by that attribute. By default it is sorted by average projected FPTS.
Practice and qualifying for this year's Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway are scheduled to take place on Saturday evening, but the weather forecast...
