Four NASCAR Cup Series races into the season, four different winners! From 31/1 Austin Cindric at the Daytona 500, the favorite in Kyle Larson at Fontana, 22/1 Alex Bowman at Las Vegas, and then Chase Briscoe (25/1) last week at Phoenix, it’s been all over the place so far in 2022 as the “NextGen” Generation 7 Cup Series car has brought us all the excitement it promised and more.
Now we turn our attention to Atlanta Motor Speedway where demolition began just hours after Kurt Busch scored Chip Ganassi’s final NASCAR Cup Series win in 2021 before he sold the team to Trackhouse Racing’s Justin Marks and rapper Pitbull.
Atlanta Motor Speedway brings probably the biggest unknowns of the 2022 season so far. The goal of this redesign was to turn the 1.54-mile speedway into a superspeedway-style of track similar to Daytona (2.5 miles) and Talladega (2.66 miles). The track was designed with the help of IRacing, the most realistic racing simulation company in the world.
The banking was raised in the corners from 24 degrees to 28 degrees while remaining at just 5 degrees on the straightaways. This weekend, NASCAR has elected to use the same superspeedway rules package that is used at Daytona and Talladega. Nobody, including the drivers, has any idea what to expect from this new track paired with this new car.
Cody’s Betting Card for Atlanta Motor Speedway
#JordanJinx
As of the writing of this article, Jordan has not made any outright bets on this weekend’s race, however, last week the #JordanJinx was in full effect on Christopher Bell. After a strong qualifying run and starting in 4th, Bell ran into some trouble and finished a very subpar 26th place.
Be sure to keep an eye on Jordan’s Action Network Betting Profile (click here), as you may want to avoid whoever the Jinx ends up on this week at Atlanta.
Head-to-Head : William Byron over Alex Bowman (-115)
This matchup features two Hendrick Motorsports drivers going head to head. Alex Bowman is the first of these teammates to win this year, claiming the victory two weeks ago at lucky Las Vegas Motor Speedway. However, it can be argued that Byron has had the stronger car to start the season; Byron leads all drivers in percentage of laps run inside the top-15 at a whopping 94.5% so far. While the results haven’t matched these numbers just yet, he is due. I am treating this as a superspeedway race. Byron won at Daytona in 2020 and has finished better than Bowman three straight times at Talladega. Look for Byron to finish ahead of Bowman Sunday at Atlanta.
Cody’s Best Bet: Ryan Blaney over Kyle Larson (-115)
I absolutely love this bet this weekend. If we are treating this as a superspeedway race, then this is massively mispriced. Kyle Larson is the best driver in North America, arguably the world, but superspeedway racing is the one thing he hasn’t seemed to be able to figure out…YET. Ryan Blaney has beat Larson head-to-head in 4 of the last 5 races at Daytona, and Larson’s last three races at Talladega have ended in 37th-, 40th-, and 39th-place finishes. If you feel the need to look at past Atlanta races on the old track, Blaney beat Larson in both races in 2021, winning the event here last March.
Memorable Moments of the 2020 NASCAR Season.
#16: William Byron earned his first career Cup win and vaulted himself into the playoffs in the regular-season finale at Daytona. It was the final victory for seven-time Cup champion crew chief Chad Knaus. pic.twitter.com/Be6bBJSxFM
The case was made for why William Byron is due above. 15/1 seems like a massive value on the guy who has spent the most time in the top 15 so far this season. Byron has proven he is able to hang at superspeedways before, capturing his first career Cup Series win at Daytona in 2020. He has also finished top 4 in two of the last three races at Talladega, and if you look at Michigan International Speedway, which may be the next closest track, he scored a 2nd-place finish there last season.
Long-Shot: Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. (+4000)
We’ve seen a few longshots hit this season already, now we head to a track running a superspeedway package and it brings a ton of unknowns. It wouldn’t shock anyone to see another longshot winner in Sunday’s Folds of Honor QuickTrip 500. Ricky, or as he is sometimes referred to, “Wrecky” Stenhouse Jr has proven he can win on the big tracks with victories at both Daytona and Talladega. It may be wreckers or checkers for Stenhouse, but if it is checkers, 40/1 sounds pretty nice!
Phoenix Raceway is the site of this weekend’s NASCAR Cup Series race, and it will be the Penske Racing driver of Ryan Blaney that leads the field to the green as the #12 Ford looked blazing fast off the truck during both practice and qualifying on Saturday. The Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota of Denny Hamlin will start in 2nd, as he looks to get his season back on track after starting off the year with three straight bad results.
Make sure you check out the Algorithm Predicted Finishing Order for this race by clicking here!
DraftKings Strategy & Dominators for Phoenix Raceway
Photo Credit: Sean Gardner/Getty Images
Phoenix is 1-mile flat track, which compares best to Richmond Raceway as well as New Hampshire Motor Speedway. You can also throw in Nashville Superspeedway when analyzing into shorter, flat tracks. Some people also include Martinsville when looking at short, flat tracks, but Martinsville is so much different than Phoenix that I personally am not weighing it very heavily this weekend.
This is a 312 lap race scheduled for Sunday afternoon, which means we’re looking at 78 FPTS up for grabs for laps led and probably around 120 FPTS for fastest laps, depending on the cautions. With so many dominator points available, that needs to be a focus with your DraftKings lineup.
Make sure you check out Dustin Maybin’s DraftKings preview for this race by clicking here. It has a ton of great information and history on top lineup construction tactics here at Phoenix.
Dominators
These are the potential dominators for this weekend’s race at Phoenix, and are listed in the order of likelihood according to my projections:
Ryan Blaney
Denny Hamlin
Kyle Busch
Kyle Larson
William Byron
Joey Logano
Chase Elliott
Some “surprise” dominators that could happen on Sunday include: Martin Truex, Jr., Christopher Bell, Tyler Reddick, Kevin Harvick, and Austin Cindric.
Optimal Lineup According to Jordan’s Projections
The optimal DraftKings lineup for Phoenixx on Sunday according to my Projections is:
Denny Hamlin
Martin Truex, Jr.
Ryan Blaney
Kevin Harvick
Bubba Wallace
Todd Gilliland
DraftKings NASCAR Picks for the Ruoff Mortgage 500
Photo Credit: Jeff Zelevansky/Getty Images
Ryan Blaney ($9,600) – The Penske Fords are always fast at short, flat tracks and this weekend is no exception. Ryan Blaney won the pole on Saturday and also put up some really fast lap times in practice, ranking 2nd-fastest behind Kyle Larson in 15-, 20-, 25-, and 30-lap averages. As far as Phoenix Raceway goes, Young Ryan Blaney struggled here to start out but then in 2019 he started to figure it out. In the last six races at this track, Blaney has four results of 6th or better, three of which were finishes of 4th or better as well. He also led 30+ laps in both Phoenix races last season and should be able to put up a good amount of dominator points from the pole here on Sunday.
Kevin Harvick ($9,100) – Kevin Harvick is masterful at Phoenix Raceway, and with him starting back in 16th on Sunday, his $9,100 salary becomes even more attractive considering the place differential potential. Harvick is a nine-time winner here at Phoenix and hasn’t finished outside of the top 10 in seventeen (not a typo) straight races at this track. Even last year, when this #4 team struggled quite a bit, Harvick finished 7th or better in all four Phoenix Stages and came home with results of 6th and 8th in. when the checkered flag waved over the two races. Looking at practice times this weekend, the #4 Ford ranked 4th or better in 20-, 25-, and 30-lap averages. Don’t over-think this one.
Todd Gilliland ($4,900) – As RotoDoc pointed out in his Action Network betting article this week, Todd Gilliland has a solid history on short, flat tracks in his racing career, and it’s not like he’s racing a back marker car here in the Cup Series even though sportsbooks (and DraftKings) continue to act like he is. At $4,900 and starting back in 33rd, Gilliland basically just needs to get through the entire race here at Phoenix on Sunday and he’s going to deliver sufficient FPTS for his salary with a good amount of upside considering he’s finished 23rd and 20th over the last two weeks. I’ll continue riding the #GillyGang train here as long as DraftKings keeps pricing Todd this low. This is an excellent week to use him and stock up on the “heavy hitter” drivers priced higher.
The following chart takes into account the very basics: the starting position and the projected finish of each driver. The projected finishes are averaged from six different ranking systems. Also factored in are projected laps led and fastest laps for each driver. You can click the headers below to sort the chart by that attribute. By default it is sorted by average projected FPTS.
This weekend, the NASCAR Cup Series is at Phoenix Raceway for the Ruoff Mortgage 500, which means we’ll get to see the NextGen car on a flat track for the first time in 2022 after hitting Daytona, Auto Club, and Las Vegas in the first three weeks of the year. Phoenix is 1-mile flat track and the last time we were here, we crowned Kyle Larson as Cup Series Champion for the 2021 season. Larson was super. fast once again in practice this weekend, but the question is now, will he show up? The #5 Chevrolet looked blazing fast last week at Las Vegas and then disappointed fantasy owners on race day.
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How the algorithm works: There are quite a few statistics that go into the Power Index formula, including recent performance both overall and at this week’s track specifically, similar track performance, projected strength of the car, practice speeds (when applicable), starting position, and a few other variables.
Before We Get To The Algorithm Results…Thoughts On A Couple Drivers
Photo Credit: Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images
Christopher Bell – The Toyotas weren’t very sporty in practice on Saturday but should be fine during Sunday’s Ruoff Mortgage 500 at Phoenix. As far as Christopher Bell goes, he has much higher potential than the 11th place that the algorithm is giving him this weekend. Bell is one of the best racers on the short, flat tracks, but if people look only at his Phoenix Cup results (two 9ths, a 17th, and a 24th), it’s easy to overlook him. At Richmond, which is the most similar track to Phoenix, CBell had finishes of 4th and 3rd in the two races last season.
Austin Cindric – This is your weekly reminder that those with limited Cup Series data, including Austin Cindric, are most likely to be under-valued by the algorithm early on this year. So taking that into account, the fact that the algorithm has Cindric ranked 18th this weekend is pretty solid. There are many reasons to like Austin and this #2 car this weekend, with the first being that it’s a Penske Ford. That organization has had the flat tracks figured out for the last few years, and all three were fast in practice here at Phoenix on Saturday. Cindric specifically put down the fastest single lap time and the 5th-best 15-lap average. In the Xfinity Series, Cindric has two wins a 2nd-place finish in his last three starts at this track.
Ruoff Mortgage 500 at Phoenix Algorithm Predicted Finishing Order
After some (rather surprisingly) exciting racing at intermediate tracks the past two weeks, NASCAR heads to the site of the championship race, Phoenix Raceway. Restarts are arguably the craziest on the schedule as drivers fan out on the apron in an attempt to gain some ground on their opponents. It remains to be seen, however, if that will be possible in the new Gen 7 car. Despite the chaotic restarts and championship factor, recent races at Phoenix have been rather boring at times with pit road having the most influence on the race results. Here’s to hoping today’s race and the new car are another step in the right direction!
Pace Laps: Setting the Stage
Phoenix Raceway is a 1.0 mile tri-oval with relatively flat banking that races mostly like a short track. Unlike races at intermediate tracks or superspeedways, nailing the right combination of dominators is essential to DFS success at short tracks due to the increased number of laps and thus, dominator points available. However, the potential for attrition through wrecks remains high, allowing the possibility of punt plays having some success.
Comparable short, flat tracks include Richmond, New Hampshire, and, to a lesser extent, Martinsville, all of which are flatter tracks less than or equal to 1 mile in length. While Richmond and Phoenix have rounded front stretches and wider corners requiring more throttle control, New Hampshire and Martinsville resemble paperclips, putting more emphasis on precise braking. Hence why some drivers succeed at two of them but not the others (e.g. Aric Almirola).
Of note, 27 of the last 34 Phoenix races, albeit on different configurations, have been won by a Cup Series champion. Those who were not champions include NASCAR Hall of Fame drivers, Dale Earnhardt, Jr. and Mark Martin. It goes to show that great skill is needed to succeed at this track, which could be amplified with the new car.
Stage 1: Lineup Construction
Since the track was reconfigured in 2018, 85.7% of drivers achieving a top 10 DraftKings score started in the top 20.
Passing is difficult at Phoenix with little deviation in running position, unless there are issues or pit road strategy comes into play. Then again, there has been slight improvement with the addition of resin creating multiple racing grooves in the corners. Of the 60 drivers starting top 20 and scoring top 10 in fantasy points, 63.3% of them started in the top 10. On the other hand, drivers starting worse than 30th have only had a top 10 DraftKings score twice. Those performances belonged to Kyle Larson (arguably the best active racer on the planet) and Aric Almirola (whose best two tracks in terms of average finish are Phoenix and Richmond).
Over the past 7 Phoenix races, 1418 (64.8%) of the laps have been led by a driver starting on the front two rows (positions 1-4).
If excluding the three races that did not have qualifying due to COVID-19 protocols, that figure jumps to 68.5%. Furthermore, if extending to the first three rows (positions 1 through 6), 73.3% of laps led have been accrued by these drivers. When targeting dominators for the race, they should likely come from this range, though GPP pivots from just outside this range could be profitable at lower ownership.
23 (65.7%) of the 35 drivers earning top 5 DraftKings scores over the past 7 Phoenix races have made the optimal lineup.
As always, place differential plays will be tempting, but don’t rule out what simply a good finish can do for lineups; 65.2% of these 23 drivers started in the top 10. Place differential didn’t outscore dominator points either as 91.3% of drivers with top 5 fantasy scores had 12 or more fastest laps (6+ dominator points) and 78.2% led at least 32 laps (8 dominator points). Thus, when deciding between high-priced options, dominator potential should trump place differential in GPPs.
At short, flat tracks over the past two years, optimal lineups have followed a similar trend with regard to pricing.
Before diving any deeper, it must be mentioned that in 2020 and 2021, pricing was released after the starting lineup was set since there was no qualifying; however, similar trends were noticed in previous Phoenix races, so it may be applicable. 10 of 13 optimal DraftKings lineups at the aforementioned comparable tracks included at least 2 drivers priced above $10,000, while 11 of 13 featured one or more punt plays priced below $6,000. Consistent across the past four years at Phoenix, 2 to 3 drivers starting in the top 12 positions have made the optimal lineup with the polesitter being optimal 62.5% of the time.
Stage 2: Drivers to Target
Cash Game Targets
Ryan Blaney ($9,600) – Starting from the pole, there is always a risk. However, the polesitter has averaged 87 laps led over the past 7 Phoenix races. Blaney ranked 2nd in 5-, 10-, 15-, and 20-lap average speed in practice as well, showing that his speed was not just in qualifying trim. Despite his troubles at Richmond, Blaney does have 3 top 5s and 5 top 10s in his past 6 Phoenix races. The #12 car has been fast all season so far, so he should be in prime position to capitalize this week.
Tyler Reddick ($8,500) – Another car that has been consistently fast so far in 2022 is the #8 driven by Tyler Reddick. It may not seem like this track fits his style as much, but he has blossomed into a contender on all track types, even road courses which could be useful at Phoenix. He did turn the 3rd fastest lap in practice and ranked 4th in both 5- and 15-lap average. Drivers who have a similar driving style include Kyle Larson and Noah Gragson, both of whom have won the most recent races in their respective series at Phoenix. A top 5 finish could land Reddick in the optimal, while a top 10 should contribute to winning most cash games.
Bubba Wallace ($6,400) – Starting 27th, Wallace provides place differential upside unmatched by most drivers starting in this range. He tends to run well at short tracks, though usually better at Bristol and Martinsville. He has shown top 15 upside at Phoenix in the past in weaker equipment. In practice yesterday, he ranked 10th in 10-lap average speed, showing that he may have top 10 upside this weekend. Given his low price and mid-20s starting position, Bubba could his 6x value with a 16th place finish.
GPP Targets
Kyle Larson ($11,800) – As mentioned in previous weeks, there is no way to count out the defending Cup Series champion, especially since he won the race here last fall. Larson would have been a cash game target, but he will be starting the race from the rear after unapproved adjustments were made. It may not impact his chances at all, but that risk puts him firmly in the GPP category. Larson topped the charts in overall average practice speed, despite being one of the very few drivers to make a 25 lap run. He looks to have a rocket this weekend and with the high groove afforded by the resin application, he should contend to dominate again.
Harrison Burton ($5,700) – If Reddick doesn’t have the worst luck in the series, Burton does. The young gun has been wrecked in three straight races to start the season, but there is absolutely no reason for him to be priced this low! Driving the #21 Wood Brothers Ford should automatically mean a price above $6,000, but I digress. Similar to Bubba, Burton ranked 10th in 10-lap average in practice. He also has two top 3 finishes at Phoenix in the Xfinity Series. Although he is underpriced, there’s a chance he goes overlooked due to his recent struggles, despite only needing a 16th place finish for 6x value.
Final Lap
21 of the past 30 Cup Series winners at Phoenix have started in the top 10, even though there have been multiple generations of cars in that timeframe. Historically, Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch have been the drivers to beat at Phoenix, but most of their success came prior to the application of traction compounds which moved the preferred racing groove closer to the wall. While they can be considered simply for their history, it’s important to know the context of the numbers. Also, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. should be a chalky play starting in dead last after an engine issue, but given the unlikely nature of drivers starting worse than 30th and still having a strong performance, being underweight to the field could be beneficial in GPPs.
For any questions or comments, you can always find me on Twitter. Best of luck this weekend! Enjoy the somewhat predictable nature of this race before a new track in Atlanta next week.
It’s been an incredible start to the NASCAR Cup Series season so far. We’ve had three different winners over the first three races, and FOX may have used the tagline “the best season ever” one season too soon. The racing and unpredictability so far this season have been something we haven’t seen in some time.
Starting off the season with a 31/1 winner in Austin Cindric, the 4/1 favorite Kyle Larson won at Auto Club and then a 24/1 Alex Bowman (picked by Fantasy Racing Online’s Jordan McAbee) took the victory last weekend in Vegas. Betting-wise, it so far seems picking a more favored driver and then sprinkling in a long shot or two might be the best strategy for picking race winners.
Cody’s Betting Card for Phoenix Raceway
#JordanJinx: Christopher Bell to Win (+3000)
Was last week the almost breaking of the #JordanJinx for this season? Or the very definition of it? We’ll leave that up to you. Kyle Larson was there at the end beating and banging with Alex Bowman but was unable to snag the win from his teammate, coming up with a second place finish.
This week Christoper Bell was too juicy at 30/1 for Jordan to pass up. And for good reason: Bell has proven he can handle the short flat tracks, dominating them in the Xfinity series a few years ago. He also has two top-10 finishes at Phoenix last year and Joe Gibbs Racing showed us last week that the Toyotas might not be as far behind as we thought.
Cody’s Best Bet: Aric Almirola over Alex Bowman (-110)
Aric Almirola is the short flat track Mr. Consistency. He’s proven over the years this is one of his favorite styles of track, with a win last year at New Hampshire and a 6th place here at Phoenix in the fall. Almirola is the only driver to finish top-10 in every race this season, giving flashbacks to his nine straight top 10s in 2020.
Alex Bowman is an Arizona native and last week’s winner so that has him slightly inflated coming into this weekend. Almirola has won this head-to-head matchup at Phoenix Raceway eight. times in a row. Everyone remembers Bowman filling in for an injured Dale Earnhardt, Jr., starting from the pole, and having a dominating race in 2016, finishing in the 6th position and helping vault Bowman into that #88 ride upon Jr’s retirement. However, that is still his best finish here and he hasn’t seen a top-10 at this track since.
Rest Of Cody’s Card
Winner of Group 3 Christopher Bell (+285)
Heading over to WynnBet for this one, group 3 matches up Alex Bowman, Brad Keselowski, Tyler Reddick, and Christopher Bell. Remember the #JordanJinx is on Bell, but like Jordan, I also like Bell a lot this week. I’ve made the case against Bowman already, and Brad Keselowski hasn’t impressed much this season so far, as he’s spun the car out in all three races. He is a seasoned veteran, but seems to be struggling with this new car and new team. Tyler Reddick is the one who scares me the most out of this group because of what we’ve seen from his so far this season, however, he hasn’t finished better than 19th in four career starts here at Phoenix in this Richard Childress Racing #8 Chevrolet. So even if Bell can’t win because of the Jinx, this group bet is a great place to jump on the Bell train!
To Win: Kyle Busch (+800)
"The same f***ing guy who backs into every f***ing win that he ever f***ing gets, backs into another f***ing win. Bull shit!"
Busch is no stranger to victory lane here at Phoenix Raceway with three career NASCAR Cup Series victories here for the two-time champion of the sport. In the last couple of races here, he didn’t perform as well but prior to that Rowdy had finishes in the top-3 in five. consecutive races. He appeared to be cruising to victory last week in a backup car after destroying his primary in practice, and trust me I was already counting that 20/1 ticket. But a late caution triggered by former teammate Erik Jones turned into a strategy game and, as Kyle says, allowed Bowman to “back into another win” and Busch had to settle for 4th. Give me a pissed off Kyle Busch in strong Gibbs equipment here at Phoenix.
Can’t Pass Up This One: Kevin Harvick Top-10 (-165)
This one is juiced up a little bit at -165, but you only pay juice if you lose. And if you made this bet the last 17 NASCAR Cup Series races here at Phoenix, you would have cashed it every single time. We talked about this extensively on the NASCAR Gambling Podcast, 17 straight top 10s at a single track has only been done twice before and both of those drivers made it to 18. 7-time champions Richard Petty and Dale Earnhardt Sr both accomplished this at North Wilkesboro Speedway. Expect Harvick to match these legends and score another top-10 this weekend. 20/1 to win is worth a sprinkle while you are at it.
Practice and qualifying for this year's Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway are scheduled to take place on Saturday evening, but the weather forecast...
