DraftKings Driver-by-Driver Breakdown for Michigan Saturday

Michigan International Speedway. It’s a 2-mile track and very wide. We shouldn’t see too much attrition here, and clean air has been a major advantage here in the past. As I mentioned in the Projections article this week, this is a shorter race than usual, and we’re only scheduled to run 156 laps. This is noteworthy because it brings the lap led FPTS down to 39 total, and then we’re likely looking at around 60-65 FPTS for fastest laps.

As far as lineup construction, I think targeting one dominator and then filling out the rest of the lineup with place differential and/or finish drivers is the way to go. The three most likely dominators on Saturday are starting 1-2-3, and honestly I would only put one max in a lineup, but with the pole sitter, Logano, priced under $10,000, I could see putting a few lineups together with him and either Harvick or Hamlin. That wouldn’t be my recommended overall strategy, though.

Core Drivers

If you throw my Projections for Michigan Saturday into an optimizer and let it make 100 lineups with no restrictions, these are the core drivers that it uses most of the time:

• Kevin Harvick (96%)
• Kurt Busch (90%)

From there, these drivers also show up >40% of the time in the optimizer, but nowhere near as much as Kevin Harvick and Kurt Busch:

• Cole Custer (70%)
• Tyler Reddick (62%)
• Aric Almirola (43%)

I would recommend checking out my DraftKings Projections article for Michigan Saturday in addition to this driver-by-driver breakdown. Click here to get to the Projections article.

Driver-by-Driver Breakdown for the FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan on Saturday

1. Joey Logano ($9,700) – 47.3 projected FPTS
   – It’s the biggest question every week: how long will the pole sitter lead? Logano has an incredible history at Michigan when he starts on the pole, including three wins and 376 laps over four races. His other finish was 10th. So track history definitely says YES when taking Logano. However, I still like being underweight on him this Saturday. I do think Joey has top 5 potential, but he’s going to need dominator points to pay off that price tag. The only other race he has started 1st for this year was Indianapolis, and he disappointed, leading only 14 laps and finishing 10th. I could see a similar outcome happening here at Michigan. Also, looking at similar tracks/tire tracks, Logano ran 12th at Auto Club, 15th at Kentucky, 3rd at Texas, and 35th at Kansas. Even with a projected 34 laps led and 11 fastest laps, Logano is under 50 FPTS in my Projections. I’m going underweight here.
2. Denny Hamlin ($10,400) – 50.9 projected FPTS
   – Hamlin finished 2nd here last fall at Michigan and is definitely a contender to be the main dominator on Saturday. Honestly, I think it comes down to either him or Harvick for who gets that title. My Projections like Harvick more, but in my head it’s super close between these two. My only knock of Denny is that he hasn’t performed great at the tracks with the same tire combination used (Kentucky and Texas), yet he won at Kansas, where the same right sides were used. With that being said, that Kansas race was at night, which Joe Gibbs Racing seems to have figured out better than other organizations this year.
3. Kevin Harvick ($11,000) – 61.7 projected FPTS
   – Again, it’s likely to come down to Harvick or Hamlin on who dominates the most this race. I give the slight edge to Harvick here but I emphasize that word slight. In my eyes, the #4 Ford is a lock for a top 5 finish on Saturday but he needs those dominator points for the $11,000 price tag to work out. With a more centralized lineup construction target, I’ll have plenty of lineups with no Harvick or Hamlin on them, for what it’s worth.
4. Aric Almirola ($9,100) – 45.2 projected FPTS
   – Honestly, I won’t have much Almirola this Saturday. He’s capable of a top 5 finish but one in the 7th to 10th range is more likely. I don’t see him getting many dominator points either. He has zero top 5s in 15 career starts at Michigan but is obviously running out of his mind right now.
5. Brad Keselowski ($10,100) – 50.3 projected FPTS
   – Give me Keselowski as a pivot off of the Logano, Hamlin, or Harvick as the core dominator in a lineup. Kez has led in 12 of his 21 starts at Michigan, and he’s also led in the last three races on similar tire combinations. Plus, the #2 Ford was out front for six laps at Fontana earlier this year. Keselowski is 3rd in Green Flag Speed for the season and fastest over the last six races. I particularly like him in Single Entry contests.
6. Alex Bowman ($7,700) – 31.9 projected FPTS
   – What makes Alex Bowman an option on Saturday is his price tag. However, even with that sub-$8,000 salary, he should have low ownership since he starts up in 6th. With that being said, Bowman dominated at Fontana earlier this year and had top 10s in both Michigan races last season. If he can avoid that usual second half of the race regression, I honestly think he might surprise some people Saturday. I like being overweight in GPPs but not too crazy.
7. Kyle Busch ($9,500) – 42.0 projected FPTS
   – Last weekend still stings. My first race going pretty much all in on Kyle Busch. Yikes. But honestly I don’t mind heading right back to this well. Rowdy has finished 6th or better in each of the last four Michigan races and has a car that can finish top 5 here on Saturday. With people’s confidence in Busch draining once again, I view that as a great time to strike and go heavy–but nothing too crazy.
8. Chase Elliott ($9,300) – 39.7 projected FPTS
   – I want to like Chase, but with the way this #9 Chevrolet has crashed back down to earth in the speed category, it’s hard for me to be overly confident in this play. His price tag isn’t bad this week, though, and if he can sneak out with a top 5, it’ll be worth it. Unfortunately Elliott hasn’t finished better than 8th at Michigan since 2017.
9. Clint Bowyer ($7,400) – 25.6 projected FPTS
   – Bowyer won a rain-shortened race here in 2018 but that’s one of just two finishes better than 23rd in his last nine starts here. The other one was a 12th-place finish. At this price range, Bowyer might seem attractive since he’s in a Stewart-Haas Ford, but he’s been nothing but mediocre both at this track and during this season. I’ll pass.
10. Kurt Busch ($8,000) – 44.8 projected FPTS
    – The Projections love Kurt Busch, and so do I. He finished 3rd at Fontana earlier this year and then at the similar tire tracks of Kentucky, Texas, and Kansas he ended up 5th, 8th, and 9th (respectively). Here at Michigan, Kurt has finished of 2nd, 6th, and 3rd over the last four events. I think Busch is a safe option on Saturday with plenty of upside. I’ll gladly have ~35% exposure.
11. Ryan Blaney ($10,600) – 51.7 projected FPTS
    – Blaney obviously has major upside this weekend starting from 11th. He’s had some of the best speed all season long and that will show here at Michigan as well. My only knock on Blaney is that he’s been disappointing lately: zero top 5s since his win at Talladega, and four finishes of 20th or worse in the last six races overall. For what it’s worth, Blaney has the best average driver rating in the Fontana/Kentucky/Texas/Kansas races this season.
12. Martin Truex, Jr. ($10,800) – 49.1 projected FPTS
    – Truex and Blaney are so close for me I’d have to flip a coin to pick between either, and I actually wouldn’t mind rostering them together in the same lineup. Truex swept the top 5 at Michigan last year and don’t forget he’s running that Auto Owners paint scheme this weekend. That thing has special power.
13. Ryan Newman ($6,200) – 18.5 projected FPTS
    – Ryan Newman has one top 10 finish this season. It was the Daytona 500. He ran 8th and 12th here at Michigan last year with Roush-Fenway, though, and his price tag is super cheap. I could see going up to about 15% exposure on him or rolling the dice in a single entry contest, but more than likely, Newman will end up with a disappointing DraftKings score on Saturday.
14. Tyler Reddick ($7,200) – 36.3 projected FPTS
    – I really like Tyler Reddick this weekend–probably too much. But let me explain why. Not only did Reddick come home 11th at Fontana earlier this year, but he’s also performed well on the tracks with this similar tire combination that Michigan is running; Tyler finished 10th at Kentucky, 2nd at Texas, and 13th at Kansas. He also won the Xfinity Michigan race last season. As far as momentum, Reddick has four top 10s in the last five races and a worst finish of 13th during that span.
15. Matt DiBenedetto ($8,400) – 39.0 projected FPTS
    – I wrote up Matt DiBenedetto in my Projections post. Click here to read that.
16. Cole Custer ($6,700) – 34.2 projected FPTS
    – I also wrote up Cole Custer in my Projections post. Click here to read that.
17. Jimmie Johnson ($8,600) – 31.3 projected FPTS
    – The Projections seem a little low for Johnson this weekend, but at the same time, this guy hasn’t had a single-digit finish since Atlanta back in early June, and here at Michigan Jimmie has zero top 5s and just two top 10s in his last ten starts. At $8,600, I’ll probably have less than 10% Johnson exposure and bank on what’s been happening all season to happen again.
18. Austin Dillon ($7,500) – 30.7 projected FPTS
    – I’d like Austin Dillon a lot more if he was priced under $7,000. However, that’s not the case. With that being said, Silver Spoon Boy does have four finishes of 8th or better in his last nine Michigan starts, and should at least be top 15 good on Saturday. He will need another top 8 finish to pay off in DraftKings and I just don’t see that happening. I’ll likely have ~10% exposure here.
19. William Byron ($8,200) – 33.5 projected FPTS
    – William Byron should finish between 9th and 12th on Saturday. Will that be worth it at his $8,200 price point? A 9th-place finish would net 45 base FPTS while a 12th-place result would be 39 base FPTS. I still think DiBenedetto and Kurt Busch have higher upside in this price range but Byron deserves some exposure as well.
20. Matt Kenseth ($7,800) – 26.8 projected FPTS
    – In my mind, Kenseth has a ceiling of about 15th on Saturday. That’s not good enough to justify his $7,800 price tag. I won’t have much of him in my lineups.
21. Michael McDowell ($6,100) – 22.2 projected FPTS
    – I like being overweight on McDowell for Saturday but nothing too crazy. His 21st-place starting spot should keep ownership low but McDowell is more than capable of coming home with a teens finish. For what it’s worth, he has just two finishes worse than 19th in the last ten Cup Series races–a 24th at Kentucky and a 40th at Pocono after he wrecked out.
22. Chris Buescher ($6,300) – 26.5 projected FPTS
    – Buescher is similar to McDowell in that I think he has teens potential. He ran 16th and 14th in the two races here last season for JTG Daugherty, and this year at Fontana he came home 16th in the Fontana race.
23. Erik Jones ($8,800) – 42.3 projected FPTS
    – I wrote up Erik Jones in my Projections post. Click here to read that.
24. Bubba Wallace ($6,500) – 20.5 projected FPTS
25. Quin Houff ($4,500) – 06.3 projected FPTS
    – Full fade.
26. JJ Yeley ($4,700) – 04.3 projected FPTS
    – Full fade.
27. Brenna Poole ($4,900) – 10.2 projected FPTS
    – Full fade.
28. James Davison ($4,600) – 06.3 projected FPTS
    – Full fade.
29. Christopher Bell ($9,900) – 39.7 projected FPTS
    – Christopher Bell is a toss-up for a good finish. There’s no doubt that there’s potential for a top 10 there, but he’s nowhere near a lock to finish up there. As mentioned in my Projections article, this is a short race, which brings place differential as a little more important than usual. A shorter race also gives Bell less time to make a stupid mistake.
30. Reed Sorenson ($5,200) – 09.8 projected FPTS
    – Full fade.
31. John Hunter Nemechek ($7,000) – 23.5 projected FPTS
    – Chances are, John Hunter Nemechek is going to need a finish in the teens in order for his $7,000 price tag to pay off. Is it possible? Yes. Is it probable? Not really. A result between 20th and 25th is much more likely. He’s a safe cash lineup option (especially over the next guy in the starting order) but playing it safe isn’t in my mind for GPPs.
32. Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. ($6,900) – 30.8 projected FPTS
    – Stenhouse does have top 20 potential on Saturday, which would be a decent DraftKings day considering he starts back in 32nd, but there’s obvious risk here. At the similar tire tracks this season, Ricky finished 29th, 38th, and 40th. On a positive note, in the last six Michigan races Stenhouse has four finishes between 8th and 19th.
33. Garrett Smithley ($5,000) – 11.2 projected FPTS
    – Full fade. This isn’t the race to take a chance on back markers.
34. Ty Dillon ($5,700) – 24.2 projected FPTS
    – The younger (and more talented) Dillon brother is a safe cash option on Saturday at Michigan. He has three finishes between 14th and 16th in the last five Cup Series races overall, and here at Michigan Ty has ended up between 11th and 22nd in four of the last five. I’d say he’s the safest driver of the three down here starting from 34th to 36th.
35. Ryan Preece ($5,800) – 26.0 projected FPTS
    – Ryan Preece has been absolutely atrocious on the high speed intermediates this year. Just looking at Fontana and the three similar tire tracks this weekend, Preece has an average finish of 35.5, and no that’s not a typo. I plan on being underweight.
36. Corey LaJoie ($5,600) – 23.3 projected FPTS
    – LaJoie has had some good runs on recent high speed intermediate tracks but a big part of that has been attrition. Don’t expect much of that to happen at Michigan. I’d be surprised if LaJoie cracks the top 25 on Saturday. Still, a safe DraftKings option at this price.
37. Daniel Suarez ($6,000) – 22.2 projected FPTS
    It’s the same story for Suarez as it is for LaJoie this season, although I think based on raw speed Suarez has a better car. I’m still expecting a mid-20s finish out of this #96 Toyota.
38. Timmy Hill ($5,400) – 10.8 projected FPTS
    – Full fade. This isn’t the race to take a chance on back markers.
39. Joey Gase ($5,100) – 12.5 projected FPTS
    – Full fade. This isn’t the race to take a chance on back markers.