Part 2 of the doubleheader weekend at Pocono Raceway is coming up with the Explore the Pocono Mountains 350, set to go green around 3:45 pm ET on Sunday. Once again, and despite being forced to start from the rear of the field in a backup car, Kyle Larson is the heavy favorite to win today’s race at +225 on DraftKings Sportsbook followed by Kyle Busch at +600 and Denny Hamlin at +750.
Pocono Sunday Race Day Betting Card
Kyle Busch to Win (+800) – Yes, I just got done saying DraftKings Sportsbook has Kyle Busch at 6-to-1 to win today, but FanDuel Sportsbook has Rowdy at 8-to-1 so I hopped on that this morning. It’s very rare for Kyle Busch to be happy with his race car, and he was ecstatic during Saturday’s race. He’ll obviously be driving that same car here on Sunday. Busch is going to need good track position late to get into victory lane again at Pocono, but he has one of the fastest pit crews in the series, and is great at this track. Busch led the most laps yesterday and will be a contender again today.
Biggest Bet of the Day
Joey Logano Top 10 Finish (-139) – I’m not putting a ton on this–I’ll likely keep my betting mid-range on Sunday–but this will likely be my biggest bet of the day. My algorithm has Logano predicted to finish 5th on Saturday, while DraftKings Sportsbook has his implied odds to finish just inside the top 10 at 58%. The #22 Ford was very strong in Saturday’s race, and while that may have been partially due to Logano’s good starting spot, you don’t have the best Green Flag Speed from that alone. Momentum-wise, Joey has five top 10s in the last six points-paying Cup races, and has been strong on the flat tracks all season long.
Rest of the Card
Denny Hamlin to Win (+900) – Love, love, love this value on Denny Hamlin. You can learn a lot about how good a driver’s car really is during their post-race interviews, and Hamlin was as confident as I’ve heard him in a long time after Saturday’s race that they could get this #11 Toyota into victory lane on Sunday. Dennis is a six-time winner at this race track, and looking at all of the back-to-back/doubleheader races from last season, he always got better in the second event (except for Dover), including a win in the second Charlotte race as well as in the second race here at Pocono, and 2nd-place finishes in the second Charlotte and Michigan races.
Denny Hamlin Top 5 Finish (+100) – See notes above.
William Byron Top 5 Finish (+105) – At this point, if William Byron is available at plus-money odds for a top 5 finish, I’m taking him. Over the last seven points-paying races, he’s finished 4th or better five times, with the only exceptions being the two road course races during that span. Byron had the 3rd-best average running position in yesterday’s race here at Pocono and was 4th-fastest when it came to Green Flag Speed. I might like this bet more than my Denny Hamlin to win wager…
Joey Logano to Win Stage 1 (+1300) – Typically I don’t bet Stage winners because I have a history of doing my best PJ Walsh impression and ending up on the guy that finishes 2nd, but in addition to DraftKings weirdly listing Kyle Larson as the favorite to win the opening Stage today (at +350… wtf) I feel like there is some major value here with Logano at 13-to-1. For Sunday’s race, the #22 Ford will start the highest of the top 5 drivers in Green Flag Speed on Saturday, and let’s not overlook what Logano has done here at Pocono in Stages recently: seven top 4 results in the last eight Stages (I excluded the race he started in the rear).
Bubba Wallace Top 10 Finish (+500) – On Saturday, Bubba was 11th-best in average running position and 12th-fastest in Green Flag Speed. On Sunday, he’s going to start 7th. He hasn’t grabbed a top 10 finish all season long, but this could finally be the day.
Ryan Blaney to Win (+1900) – I can’t pass up 19-to-1 odds with Blaney coming off of his first top 5 finish since his win at Atlanta. He’s a previous winner here at Pocono and is great on restarts, which can be the key to victory at this track.
Joey Logano to Win (+2100) – Again, value. The driver with the best Green Flag Speed on Saturday is listed at 21-to-1 odds to win on Sunday, plus he’s starting 14th–which will actually be 12th once Kyle Larson drops to the rear.
Sunday Afternoon Adds
Most sportsbook are being pretty slow when it comes to releasing all of the normal odds, but I’ll be keeping an eye on this throughout the way. If and when they get added, and if I add any more to my card, I’ll be sure to update this article.