It feels good to have racing back, doesn’t it? After an absolutely smashing betting card at New Hampshire a couple of weeks ago, we all should have some extra money in our pocket now to attack this weekend’s race at Watkins Glen. Road course races are actually pretty predictable, as we definitely know who the front runners should be. However, one small mistake can completely derail a drivers day, which opens up the door to take some chances on underdogs–at least in prop and H2H bets, usually not outright winners.
Watkins Glen Day Betting Card
Kyle Larson to Win (Boosted to +900) – Caesars Sportsbook was offering a 100% profit boost on Monday–I tweeted it out here–and while I contemplated boosting a bet on Chase Elliott to win on Sunday, or boosting Kyle Larson to win the Championship this year, I decided to add the boost to Larson winning here at Watkins Glen for the #JordanJinx Boosted Special. Coming into the season, Watkins Glen was Larson’s better road course while he was with Ganassi, and we saw this #5 Chevrolet pretty much dominate the Sonoma race this year. Larson starts 4th here for Sunday’s Go Bowling at The Glen and honestly it wouldn’t be surprising if he led the first lap (and many after). My algorithm thinks Larson is neck-and-neck with Elliott heading into the weekend, so he’s worth a bet for this weekend’s race (even at his normal odds of +450).
Favorite Bet of the Week
Chris Buescher Top 20 Finish (-105) – Please follow me on Twitter. Here’s why: just like the great Aric Almirola bet at Loudon, I tweet out early lines that are tremendous values. Chris Buescher at -105 for a top 20 was a tremendous value, and I tweeted it out (see below). It quickly moved to -185 soon after. While I do think there is still value in betting this at -185 odds, getting it at -105 was hammer time. Anyway, the reason for this bet: Chris Buescher is an under-the-radar, sneaky good road course racer. And he hasn’t finished worse than 20th at this track type since the 2016 season. Case closed.
Rest of Jordan’s Card
Chase Briscoe over Michael McDowell (+100) – Honestly, Chase Briscoe is becoming one of my favorite road course plays because it seems like people are still sleeping on him. I’m not exactly sure why Michael McDowell is the favorite in this matchup, but I’ll gladly take Briscoe at even-money. When it comes to road courses, Michael McDowell is definitely capable, but unless he gets good track position at the end, he’s usually about a 15th-to-20th-place car. Briscoe, on the other hand, has much better equipment and is a better road course racer, as we’ve seen him legitimately challenge for top 5s in three of the four races on this track type in 2021.
Christopher Bell Top 5 Finish (+175) – Love this bet on Christopher Bell this weekend. This #20 team is finally starting to build some momentum–three straight finishes of 8th or better, including two 2nd-place results–and CBell has emerged as one of the best road course racers in the Cup Series after his win at the Daytona Road Course this year and his 2nd-place run at Road America. And don’t forget, Erik Jones piloted this #20 Toyota to top 5 finishes in each of the last two Watkins Glen races.
Kurt Busch Top 5 Finish (+300) – This is worth a #SaltBae sprinkle, in my opinion. Somewhat quietly, Kurt Busch has been one of the best road course finishers this season, with top 6 results in three of the four races this far (the exception being COTA). Plus, he’s just a really solid road course racer overall, with top 10 finishes in 25 of his 46 career Cup Series starts at this track type (with 14 of those finishes also being top 5s). Over the last seven races at Watkins Glen specifically, Kurt hasn’t finished worse than 11th and has three top 6 results.
Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. Top 20 Finish (+160) – Rolling the dice with Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. is always risky, and when we come to tracks that require a large amount of skill–such as road courses–you’re playing with fire even more. But with this bet, you really only need Stenhouse to not royally screw up. And the good news: it doesn’t happen incredibly often on road courses. Looking at the last 13 races on this track type, Stenhouse has finished top 20 in nine of them (69.2% nice), and also has finishes of 21st and 22nd during that span. Here at Watkins Glen, Ricky has finished top 20 in five of his seven career starts (71.4%).
Austin Dillon Top 20 Finish (+160) – As mentioned on Stacking Dennys this week… I can’t believe I’m betting on both Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. and Austin Dillon this weekend. What a world, but here we are. My algorithm absolutely hates Austin Dillon for this race but a major part of that is because Austin Dillon has been absolutely horrendous at Watkins Glen–he has a career average finish of 27.8 at this track–and pretty awful at road courses overall, really. But NASCAR and betting often times have the “what have you done for me lately” factor, and the fact of the matter is that we haven’t raced at The Glen since 2019 and Austin Dillon has finished 13th or better in three of the four road course races this season. AD is fighting for a Playoff berth still. He needs a good run this weekend.