The Xfinity 500 at Martinsville Speedway is this Sunday and I’ll go ahead and say it: this is a great weekend to take a break from betting (except my “Favorite Bet of the Week”). The sportsbooks are incredibly sharp this week, and this race is truly going to be a tossup on Sunday, not only for who wins the damn thing, but also just how the top contenders fully shake out. If you check out the Algorithm Predicted Finishing Order for this race (linked below), it’s barely giving an edge to any one driver in this race.

Of course, there may be some value bets to make as the weekend progresses, but going into Friday, it’s pretty slim pickings. If there are any additional bets I place before Sunday’s race, I’ll be sure to add them to this article.

Need to find an edge on Head-to-Head betting matchups this week? Take a look at the Algorithm Predicted Finishing Order for Sunday’s race and find those slam dunk bets.

Betting Card for the Xfinity 500 at Martinsville


Joey Logano to Win (+1000) – The #JordanJinx is taking down drivers left and right, with the most recent victim being Kyle Busch at Kansas last weekend. This weekend the jinx is on Joey Logano at 10-to-1 odds thanks to FanDuel Sportsbook. This is going to be the only outright winner bet I have this weekend, and it’s a relatively small bet. There’s just no value out there. Anyway, Logano has been incredibly strong on the short, flat tracks this season, with finishes of 6th or better in all five races. Here at Martinsville specifically, Logano has ended up 8th or better in six of the last seven races and that includes his win here back in the 2018 fall race. Joey needs to win on Sunday if he wants to have a chance at this year’s Championship, and if you think he can pull of the win this weekend at “The Paperclip,” it’s probably worth putting a #SaltBae sprinkle on him to win the championship at 50-to-1 on BetMGM as well…

Favorite Bet of the Week

Ryan Blaney Top 10 Finish (-150) – This isn’t just my favorite bet of the week, it’s my favorite bet of the entire season. Click here to read my article why, which was posted earlier this week.


Rest of Jordan’s Card

Joey Logano Top 5 Finish (+115) – This probably isn’t very smart since the #JordanJinx is on Logano this weekend, but it’s hard to pass up the +115 odds when this #22 Ford has been so strong on the short, flat tracks this season. Perhaps the most impressive performance of Logano this season was at New Hampshire, where he battled from two laps down to finish 4th when it was all said and done. New Hampshire is probably the most similar short, flat track to Martinsville, for what it’s worth.

All Joe Gibbs Racing Cars to Finish in the Top 10 (+400) – Honestly, the biggest liability here is probably Kyle Busch. He’s just beyond awful in this 750hp package. However, Rowdy did come home 10th here at Martinsville back in April, and has three top 10s in the five short, flat track races this season. As far as the other three, Martin Truex, Jr. is the favorite to win, Denny Hamlin should easily finish top 10 if he doesn’t completely lay off the gas late and coast into Phoenix on points, and Christopher Bell has finished 9th or better in all five short, flat track races this season, including three top 5s.

As someone who has always been obsessed with numbers, Fantasy NASCAR has been the perfect fit with me. I pride myself on the quality of my analysis for each race, and am glad that I have been able to help others along the way. I've been a serious Fantasy NASCAR player for over 10 years now, and I'm just getting started.