Dover DraftKings NASCAR Picks, Projections, & Strategy Breakdown

The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Dover, Delaware and “The Monster Mile” race track, Dover International Speedway, this weekend for the Drydene 400. Man, that’s a lot of words that start with D in that sentence. Anyway, Dover is a steep concrete oval and there’s going to be a lot of green flag racing on Sunday, although the weather forecast says it’s going to be cloudy. Martin Truex, Jr. is on the pole this weekend with teammate Denny Hamlin starting 2nd, and you can see the full starting lineup by clicking here. Now let’s goooo!!!!

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Dover Speed Report & Loop Data Driver Averages

Dover International Speedway is a 1-mile race track that doesn’t really race like the “typical” 1-mile race track. That’s the best way to put it, in my opinion. I’ve always thought of Dover as racing more like an 1.5-mile intermediate, just a half of a mile less in length. Or like a Bristol but double the size. As far as comparable tracks, it’s hard to find one that fits the best. Definitely take a look into Bristol speeds, as well as the 750 hp package overall this season. Also, Goodyear is bringing the same left side tire that was used at Homestead and Darlington this season, for what that’s worth.

You can click here for Green Flag Speed from Homestead, and click here for the full Loop Data Box Score from Homestead. Also, you can click here for Green Flag Speed from Darlington, and click here for the full Loop Data Box Score from Darlington.

The following statistics are included in the charts below. You can click on column headers to sort by that column. You will notice that there is 2017 and 2018 data shown under the 2020 Dover data. This 750 hp package that the teams are running this weekend compares nicely to the 2017 and 2018 races.

• Starts
• Finish
• ARP = average running position
• DR = driver rating
• FL = fastest laps (total)
• LL = laps led (total)
• T15 = laps ran inside top 15 (total)
• Total Laps = laps completed (total)

2020 Driver Averages at Dover

2017-2018 Driver Averages At Dover

DraftKings Strategy & Dominators for Dover

DraftKings got aggressive with their driver pricing this weekend at Dover, and because of that, you have to make some decisions this week. The most likely dominators (Truex/Larson/Hamlin) are all priced up and Dover is usually a two dominator race. If you take two of those three, though, you’re really digging deep with the lower-priced guys and it’s hard to get a balanced lineup. My projections definitely prefer taking two of those three guys in a single lineup.

• There are 400 laps scheduled for Sunday’s Drydene 400 at Dover, which means there are 100 DraftKings FPTS up for grabs for laps led. Additionally, you can expect right around 340 green flag laps, giving us an additional 153 (approximately) DraftKings FPTS up for grabs for fastest laps.
• We typically see a two dominator race at Dover, maybe a two-and-a-half or three dominator race sometimes. Rarely a one dominator race. The drivers most likely to dominate have all been priced up by DraftKings this week, so lineup construction is going to get interesting. I’d recommending having two potential dominators in your lineup, and if you’re only rolling with one of Truex/Larson/Hamlin, I’d have three potential dominators in there.

Dominators

These are the potential dominators for Sunday’s race at Dover, and are listed in the order of likelihood according to my projections:

• Martin Truex, Jr.
• Kyle Larson
• Denny Hamlin
• Chae Elliott
• Kyle Busch
• Kevin Harvick

Some “surprise” dominators that could happen on Sunday include: Joey Logano, Brad Keselowski, William Byron, and Ryan Blaney.

Driver-by-Driver Breakdown Video

Now for the video breakdown! Be sure to go here and subscribe to my YouTube channel if you haven’t already.

Optimal Lineup According to Jordan’s Projections

The optimal DraftKings lineup for Dover according to my Projections is:

• Martin Truex, Jr.
• Kyle Larson
• Aric Almirola
• Daniel Suarez
• Chase Briscoe
• Ryan Preece

Confidence Rating = 6.5/10. This is a tournament lineup in my mind that gives you a decent base to start working and playing around with, but I’m not in love with it by any means. Briscoe is a very risky play, as is Preece. I wouldn’t play this one in cash. One move you could make is swapping Almirola to Cole Custer and then grabbing Ross Chastain instead of Preece.

GPP / Tournament Picks

Denny Hamlin ($11,100) – As weird as it sounds, Denny Hamlin is probably going to be the pivot in the Truex/Larson/Hamlin group this weekend, meaning he’s going to be the lowest owned of the three. The reason being, Truex is going to be the most likely dominator in many people’s minds, and then Larson has a couple more spots of place differential than Hamlin does. But Denny has a solid chance at putting up a huge score here at Dover on Sunday as well. He has the 2nd-most fastest laps and the most laps led in this 750 hp package in 2021, and at Dover specifically last season he was 2nd in both of those categories. Strategy-wise, Hamlin makes a solid pivot off of the Truex/Larson stack and he comes at a discount, too.

Christopher Bell ($8,000) – Again: Joe Gibbs Racing. They are the fastest team right now, especially with this 750 hp package. And one driver that has really excelled under this package is Christopher Bell. He’s got an average finish of 8.5 in the four 750 hp races on shorter tracks this season, and also the 8th-most fastest laps (44). His track record here at Dover is awful–finishes of 22nd and 27th last season–but don’t forget that he was in that Leavine Family Racing car in 2020, plus he was a rookie. Honestly, I see top 5 upside out of CBell on Sunday and that makes him an excellent pivot off of chalk Aric Almirola in this price range on DraftKings.

Ross Chastain ($6,500) – It seems like I’m talking about Ross Chastian every single week, and thus far, he hasn’t disappointed… well, this team’s Darlington strategy was still questionable at best, but he ended up 15th so it’s all good. Anyway, Chastain has surprised me a bit this season with how consistent he’s been. Week in and week out, the melon man is a top 15 threat, and with drivers in this DraftKings price range, you can’t ask for much more. Chastain also has potential for top 10 upside with the car he’s in, depending on how the race and his strategy plays out. As mentioned in my FanDuel article this week: “Chastain has never ran here at Dover in a competitive car but he did come home 2nd and 3rd in the two Xfinity races at this track last season, for what that’s worth.”

Cash Core Drivers

Martin Truex, Jr. ($11,900) – Only twice this season has the pole sitter not sucked it up in DraftKings, and that was two races ago (Keselowski at Kansas) and four races ago (Truex at Richmond). So if we’re continuing on that pattern, we’re due for another dominating effort from the pole sitter this weekend at Dover. I’ve tried to find something I don’t like about Martin Truex, Jr. this weekend and there’s just nothing there. This year with the 750 hp package, Truex has the 2nd-best average running position, the best average finish, the most fastest laps, and the 2nd-most laps led. In 2017-2018 at Dover, he had the 2nd-best average finish, best average running position, 3rd-most fastest laps, and 4th most laps led. Oh and this #19 team is running out of its mind right now. Truex is going to be a popular DFS pick on Sunday and I could see going underweight on him in tournaments as a strategy play, but his upside here is huge.

Aric Almirola ($8,200) – I know cash lineups are supposed to be relatively safe, and there has been nothing safe about Aric Almirola this season, but as I mentioned in my FanDuel write-up, I’m not overly concerned. Almirola has performed at an “average” level with this 750 hp package this season, and that’s really all we need from him here. He starts back in 32nd, so we just need a mid-teens finish out of the #10 Ford on Sunday and Almirola will be a great cash play. And not that it really means anything with Aric right now but he’s finished 17th or better in each of his last six starts here at Dover.

Daniel Suarez ($6,300) – My projections love Daniel Suarez this weekend, and with him starting 24th and only being $6,300 in DraftKings, he’s a very safe pick to roll with. Dover was one of Suarez’s best tracks when he was in competitive equipment, and in the six Cup races he ran here before going to Gaunt Brothers, he never finished worse than 14th and also had four top 10s. Honestly, I wouldn’t be overly surprised if this #99 Chevrolet challenged for a top 10 finish on Sunday. I think Suarez will at least be a solid mid-teens threat.

Dover Drydene 400 DraftKings Driver Projections

The following chart takes into account the very basics: the starting position and the projected finish of each driver. The projected finishes are averaged from six different ranking systems. Also factored in are projected laps led and fastest laps for each driver. You can click the headers below to sort the chart by that attribute. By default it is sorted by average projected FPTS.