Before we get a couple of weekends off for the Olympics, NASCAR is at New Hampshire Motor Speedway for the Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 this weekend. Otherwise known as Loudon, New Hampshire is a 1.058-mile flat track and it’s usually pretty easy to determine who the top drivers will be on race day. We usually see many of the same faces up front at this track, as well as at shorter flat tracks in general.

Before we get to the meat and potatoes of this post, make sure you check out this week’s episode of Stacking Dennys, the new podcast that RotoDoc and I host. Click here for more information on that. Finally, make sure you read my FanDuel article for this race as well (click here), as there is often quite a bit of similarities between the two DFS sites. Now let’s goooo!!!!

LIVE STREAM INFORMATION: I will be joining Brandon Cruz on his YouTube channel on Sunday to break down this slate. We plan on going live at noon Eastern on Sunday. I will update this article and post the link to the stream on Saturday night or Sunday morning.

Enjoy the FREE content that this site offers each week? Consider donating to support by clicking here. Also, be sure to check out the Algorithm Predicted Finishing Order for this race by clicking here!

Speed Report & Loop Data Driver Averages

William Byron Liberty University Paint Scheme 2021 Nashville Superspeedway
Photo Credit: Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images

We’re focusing on short flat tracks this weekend. That means in addition to looking at New Hampshire Motor Speedway data in general, we’re also looking at statistics from the Phoenix and Richmond race tracks. You can maybe throw in Martinsville and/or Nashville when looking at data, but they’re really not all that similar to Loudon, Phoenix, and Richmond. This is also a 750hp package race, so in addition to Loudon/Phoenix/Richmond data from 2020 and 2021, there is 750hp data from 2021 shown below as well. The following information is included:

  • Starts
  • Finish
  • ARP = average running position
  • DR = driver rating
  • FL = fastest laps (total)
  • LL = laps led (total)
  • T15 = laps ran inside top 15 (total)
  • Total Laps = laps completed (total)

2020-2021 Driver Averages At Short Flat Tracks

Driver
Starts
Finish
ARP
DR
FL
LL
T15
Total Laps
Joey Logano602.703.7124.118542220022041
Brad Keselowski605.505.0121.920051819752041
Chase Elliott606.508.8106.313725717332041
Denny Hamlin607.207.9109.723937716902040
Kevin Harvick608.507.6107.615611418672038
Martin Truex Jr608.807.7107.316218218072007
Aric Almirola608.810.992.026916892040
Kyle Larson309.714.389.15535391026
William Byron611.012.188.624015192039
Matt DiBenedetto611.212.288.521114852040
Alex Bowman611.312.685.5411013222040
Kurt Busch612.712.581.9361916042040
Kyle Busch615.210.686.046514711754
Christopher Bell616.214.581.460011032037
Austin Dillon616.315.175.3825910181853
Ryan Blaney617.212.082.9374111541788
Ricky Stenhouse Jr618.318.668.75425152036
Cole Custer618.817.271.23309012032
Ross Chastain319.017.867.2202601027
Tyler Reddick620.316.571.61909301984
Bubba Wallace620.822.259.81442422033
Chris Buescher621.523.953.711312033
Chase Briscoe222.021.361.60082710
Michael McDowell622.224.952.3100642033
Erik Jones622.519.463.51105602032
Ryan Preece623.824.653.2801572021
Daniel Suarez624.025.748.6501672028
Ryan Newman525.223.453.140791714
Corey LaJoie629.225.648.212121151898
Justin Haley230.528.134.8003313
BJ McLeod231.029.938.8007702
James Davison533.234.131.63031678
Quin Houff633.834.231.00011736
Anthony Alfredo234.032.534.6000482
Garrett Smithley534.434.230.02031426
Josh Bilicki335.736.227.4000938
Cody Ware236.035.630.5301486

2021 Driver Averages Under 750hp Intermediate Package

Driver
Starts
Finish
ARP
DR
FL
LL
T15
Total Laps
William Byron605.007.6105.4643020542205
Kyle Larson605.808.5112.934252817182203
Joey Logano606.506.3108.99019821012204
Denny Hamlin607.004.1119.423152321262204
Chase Elliott607.008.999.4951318922205
Martin Truex Jr608.307.7111.124045518872203
Kevin Harvick609.308.498.6501019262202
Christopher Bell610.712.289.5441215662200
Alex Bowman613.512.190.411010815572087
Ross Chastain613.817.275.222148402202
Austin Dillon613.815.077.219113022203
Kyle Busch614.014.287.4602014212197
Ryan Blaney615.008.489.25819216771958
Ricky Stenhouse Jr615.016.775.56117582200
Tyler Reddick616.014.776.022212192200
Matt DiBenedetto617.216.770.72010612195
Kurt Busch617.514.874.749312872016
Daniel Suarez618.019.766.53706312087
Bubba Wallace618.518.965.718276062198
Brad Keselowski619.212.982.1594814382086
Aric Almirola619.215.571.11619821816
Chris Buescher619.818.265.61117501979
Ryan Newman620.721.059.3105912193
Erik Jones621.520.058.32003142100
Cole Custer624.822.258.82703261955
Chase Briscoe624.822.059.8055302055
Corey LaJoie624.824.950.80121202066
Michael McDowell625.024.949.8150872078
Anthony Alfredo627.727.742.170361955
Ryan Preece627.825.153.03901851975
James Davison530.433.730.81011855
BJ McLeod631.331.437.22072094
Quin Houff631.332.132.20011862
Josh Bilicki631.533.730.40002059
Garrett Smithley431.832.633.200151370
Justin Haley532.029.236.630391063
Cody Ware533.033.332.33151551

DraftKings Strategy & Dominators for Loudon

As I said before, Loudon is a shorter flat track, and we pretty much know which drivers are going to be the best here on Sunday. Here are some notes to remember:

  • More often than not, New Hampshire is a 2 dominator race. Sometimes we’ll see a potential third dominator creep up there, but you need to build lineups with two or three potential solid dominators on them.
  • Again, Loudon is a shorter flat track. We’re looking at Phoenix and Richmond as far as similar track data, and while Martinsville and Nashville are both shorter and flatter, I personally don’t think they compare that well.
  • There are 301 laps scheduled for Sunday’s Foxwoods Resort Casino 301, so there is a good amount of dominator points up for grabs tis weekend. For laps led, there will be 75.25 DraftKings FPTS available and then for fastest laps, there will be approximately 115-120 DraftKings FPTS, as I’m expecting around 260 green flag laps.
  • NOTE ADDED SATURDAY MORNING: NASCAR is deciding to forgo the PJ1 application for Loudon this weekend. This heightens the possibility of this being a one dominator race, but not significantly. It also slightly decreases passing opportunities. The pit crews are going to play a larger role in this race, as the fastest ones that can get their driver the track position–especially getting him out in the lead–add an advantage. I think this bumps up Kyle Busch’s playability a bit this weekend, but, again, not significantly.

Dominators

These are the potential dominators for Sunday’s race at New Hampshire, and are listed in the order of likelihood according to my projections:

  • Kyle Busch
  • Martin Truex, Jr.
  • Denny Hamlin
  • Kyle Larson
  • Joey Logano
  • Chase Elliott
  • Brad Keselowski

Some “surprise” dominators that could happen on Sunday include: Christopher Bell, Kevin Harvick, Kurt Busch, and Ryan Blaney.

Driver-by-Driver Breakdown Video

Now for the video breakdown! Be sure to go here and subscribe to my YouTube channel if you haven’t already.

Optimal Lineup According to Jordan’s Projections

The optimal DraftKings lineup for New Hampshire according to my Projections is:

  • Denny Hamlin
  • Joey Logano
  • Martin Truex, Jr.
  • Christopher Bell
  • Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.
  • Cole Custer

Confidence Rating = 8.5/10. I actually really like this lineup. As mentioned before, I think it’s going to be important to build lineups with two or three potential dominators in them. You have two solid dominator potentials here with Hamlin and Truex, and then outside dominators with Logano and Bell. If you’re looking for a lineup with pole sitter Kyle Busch in it, one of the top ones according to my projections is: Kyle Busch, Joey Logano, Martin Truex, Jr., Christopher Bell, Ricky Stenhouse, Jr., and Corey LaJoie.

GPP / Tournament Picks

Christopher Bell racing with Joey Logano at the Daytona Road Course race 2021
Photo Credit: Brian Lawdermilk/Getty Images

Denny Hamlin ($10,000) – As weird as it sounds, I think Denny Hamlin has the potential to go under-owned in DraftKings this weekend despite being a very good price point on the salary table. I think a lot of DFS players are going to be gravitating toward stuffing in Kyle Larson ($11,200) since he’s starting back in 10th and, well, it’s Kyle Larson, which will force them to skip over Hamlin for some of the mid-to-lower $9,000 drivers. But Denny Hamlin is a great DraftKings pick this weekend. Looking at fastest laps, he’s put up 17+ in each oft he last five races at shorter flat tracks, and 38+ in all but one of those five. He’s finished 4th or better in four of the last five short flat track Cup Series races and has ended up 2nd in the last two Loudon races as well.

Aric Almirola ($8,400) – I hate the price point of Aric Almirola on DraftKings but I love the upside, and if I hate the price point that usually means most of the general public playing DraftKings on Sunday is going to hate it even more. But there’s legitimate top 10 potential here from Almirola this weekend, as crazy as it is to say. Over the last three Loudon races, Aric has posted finishes of 7th, 11th, and 3rd, and over the last six shorter flat track races he has yet to end up worse than 13th. This season, Almirola ended up 11th at Phoenix and then 6th at Richmond. There’s a ton of upside here, and AA is a great tournament play in my book.

Christopher Bell ($7,700) – I’m going to be very heavy on Christopher Bell this weekend, and it’d kind of be hypocritical if I wasn’t considering I wrote him up in my algorithm article, my betting article, and my Slingshot article for this race. Bell has legitimate top 5 finishing potential on Sunday and could put up 15-20 fastest laps as well. Is it a guarantee? No. Could CBell help someone win a lot of money this weekend? Absolutely. It’s rare for me to like DraftKings drivers in this mid-$7,000 price range, but when you look at Christopher Bell’s record on shorter tracks this year–9th at Phoenix, 7th at Martinsville, 4th at Richmond, 9th at Nashville–and add in the fact that New Hampshire has been one of his best tracks since he’s came into NASCAR and there’s crazy good upside with him this weekend.

Cash Core Drivers

Martin Truex, Jr. Sirius XM Paint Scheme Martinsville 2019
Photo Credit: Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images

Joey Logano ($9,500) – I also wrote up Joey Logano as a cash driver in my FanDuel article this week. He’s under-priced on both DFS sites this weekend. Here’s all you need to know about Logano for this race: he’s starting 15th and his last six finishes on this track type are 3rd, 2nd, 3rd, 3rd, 4th, and 1st. On finishing position alone, JoLo is a great DFS play on Sunday, and then he’s typically good for about 15+ fastest laps at these shorter flat tracks as well. Here at Loudon specifically, Joey has five top 5s in his last ten starts and only one result worse than 11th.

Martin Truex, Jr. ($9,100) – I talked in the video (linked above) how I could see Martin Truex, Jr. being bad chalk this weekend and the opportunity to go underweight on him in tournaments, but when it comes to a cash lineup, there’s no reason to go against this guy. He’s never won here at Loudon but he’s led 744 laps in his career here, which is the 4th-most of all active drivers. Looking at similar tracks this season, MTJ won at Phoenix and finished 5th at Richmond, putting up 52 and 74 fastest laps (respectively) along the way. In terms of laps led, he had 64 and 107 in those two races (respectively).

Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. ($7,100) – It kind of feels weird to say it but Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. is a pretty solid racer on flat tracks, and he’s starting back in 29th here in Sunday’s Foxwoods Resort Casino 301. He’s priced a little bit high in DraftKings at $7,100, but Stenhouse has legitimate top 15 potential, and has finished inside that mark in five of his last eight starts at that track. Looking at similar tracks this season, Stenhouse ended up 12th at Phoenix and 17th at Richmond. He’s a solid place differential play on Sunday.

New Hampshire Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 DraftKings Driver Projections

The following chart takes into account the very basics: the starting position and the projected finish of each driver. The projected finishes are averaged from six different ranking systems. Also factored in are projected laps led and fastest laps for each driver. You can click the headers below to sort the chart by that attribute. By default it is sorted by average projected FPTS.

DriverDraftKings SalaryAvg Proj FPTSProj OwnershipStarting PositionCeiling Proj FPTSAvg. Projected FinishDollar Per FPT
Martin Truex Jr$9,10070.2038.60%289.2003.5$130
Denny Hamlin$10,00068.9527.64%690.5503.0$145
Kyle Larson$11,20064.1735.17%10115.2005.0$175
Kyle Busch$10,90063.5530.89%1109.9506.7$172
Joey Logano$9,50062.3833.16%1581.1504.7$152
Brad Keselowski$9,30052.2820.57%1167.3506.3$178
Kevin Harvick$10,30051.7217.70%1264.8006.5$199
Chase Elliott$9,80046.5318.36%355.2505.8$211
Christopher Bell$7,70046.2520.50%974.5510.2$166
William Byron$10,60043.3215.08%1653.9010.0$245
Aric Almirola$8,40041.8518.11%2251.3512.8$201
Ryan Blaney$8,70041.0819.11%746.7507.3$212
Ricky Stenhouse Jr$7,10037.6235.60%2947.1517.8$189
Daniel Suarez$8,90037.5014.46%3158.7519.0$237
Kurt Busch$8,50034.5012.62%446.5009.8$246
Austin Dillon$7,40032.1214.41%1352.7515.2$230
Ross Chastain$7,00030.9018.76%2039.9017.0$227
Matt DiBenedetto$7,50030.0218.59%1440.2514.5$250
Cole Custer$6,30027.7822.16%2140.2519.0$227
Tyler Reddick$6,80027.429.50%845.7513.7$248
Alex Bowman$8,20026.8716.86%535.2012.2$305
Ryan Newman$7,20026.6724.05%2840.8522.3$270
Bubba Wallace$6,50025.8019.81%1843.5019.0$252
Erik Jones$6,70022.6717.24%2431.9021.8$296
Ryan Preece$7,80020.508.91%2536.4524.0$380
Chase Briscoe$6,00019.6713.95%1933.3521.5$305
Corey Lajoie$5,70016.5012.83%2632.3526.7$345
Michael McDowell$6,20012.5016.49%2320.1526.7$496
Chris Buescher$8,00012.174.57%1730.2523.2$658
Justin Haley$4,70011.836.93%3018.0030.2$397
Cody Ware$5,60010.671.41%3418.0032.7$525
Anthony Alfredo$5,90010.337.81%2715.4529.3$571
James Davison$5,40008.832.04%3714.0034.8$611
BJ McLeod$5,20008.831.13%3214.0032.3$589
Quin Houff$4,50008.502.82%3613.0034.5$529
Garrett Smithley$5,00006.830.87%3310.0033.7$732
Josh Bilicki$4,80004.331.30%3510.0035.7$1,108
As someone who has always been obsessed with numbers, Fantasy NASCAR has been the perfect fit with me. I pride myself on the quality of my analysis for each race, and am glad that I have been able to help others along the way. I've been a serious Fantasy NASCAR player for over 10 years now, and I'm just getting started.