Before we get a couple of weekends off for the Olympics, NASCAR is at New Hampshire Motor Speedway for the Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 this weekend. Otherwise known as Loudon, New Hampshire is a 1.058-mile flat track and it’s usually pretty easy to determine who the top drivers will be on race day. We usually see many of the same faces up front at this track, as well as at shorter flat tracks in general.
Before we get to the meat and potatoes of this post, make sure you check out this week’s episode of Stacking Dennys, the new podcast that RotoDoc and I host. Click here for more information on that. Finally, make sure you read my FanDuel article for this race as well (click here), as there is often quite a bit of similarities between the two DFS sites. Now let’s goooo!!!!
LIVE STREAM INFORMATION: I will be joining Brandon Cruz on his YouTube channel on Sunday to break down this slate. We plan on going live at noon Eastern on Sunday. I will update this article and post the link to the stream on Saturday night or Sunday morning.
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Speed Report & Loop Data Driver Averages
We’re focusing on short flat tracks this weekend. That means in addition to looking at New Hampshire Motor Speedway data in general, we’re also looking at statistics from the Phoenix and Richmond race tracks. You can maybe throw in Martinsville and/or Nashville when looking at data, but they’re really not all that similar to Loudon, Phoenix, and Richmond. This is also a 750hp package race, so in addition to Loudon/Phoenix/Richmond data from 2020 and 2021, there is 750hp data from 2021 shown below as well. The following information is included:
- ARP = average running position
- DR = driver rating
- FL = fastest laps (total)
- LL = laps led (total)
- T15 = laps ran inside top 15 (total)
- Total Laps = laps completed (total)
2020-2021 Driver Averages At Short Flat Tracks
|Martin Truex Jr||6||08.8||07.7||107.3||162||182||1807||2007|
|Ricky Stenhouse Jr||6||18.3||18.6||68.7||54||2||515||2036|
2021 Driver Averages Under 750hp Intermediate Package
|Martin Truex Jr||6||08.3||07.7||111.1||240||455||1887||2203|
|Ricky Stenhouse Jr||6||15.0||16.7||75.5||61||1||758||2200|
DraftKings Strategy & Dominators for Loudon
As I said before, Loudon is a shorter flat track, and we pretty much know which drivers are going to be the best here on Sunday. Here are some notes to remember:
- More often than not, New Hampshire is a 2 dominator race. Sometimes we’ll see a potential third dominator creep up there, but you need to build lineups with two or three potential solid dominators on them.
- Again, Loudon is a shorter flat track. We’re looking at Phoenix and Richmond as far as similar track data, and while Martinsville and Nashville are both shorter and flatter, I personally don’t think they compare that well.
- There are 301 laps scheduled for Sunday’s Foxwoods Resort Casino 301, so there is a good amount of dominator points up for grabs tis weekend. For laps led, there will be 75.25 DraftKings FPTS available and then for fastest laps, there will be approximately 115-120 DraftKings FPTS, as I’m expecting around 260 green flag laps.
- NOTE ADDED SATURDAY MORNING: NASCAR is deciding to forgo the PJ1 application for Loudon this weekend. This heightens the possibility of this being a one dominator race, but not significantly. It also slightly decreases passing opportunities. The pit crews are going to play a larger role in this race, as the fastest ones that can get their driver the track position–especially getting him out in the lead–add an advantage. I think this bumps up Kyle Busch’s playability a bit this weekend, but, again, not significantly.
These are the potential dominators for Sunday’s race at New Hampshire, and are listed in the order of likelihood according to my projections:
- Kyle Busch
- Martin Truex, Jr.
- Denny Hamlin
- Kyle Larson
- Joey Logano
- Chase Elliott
- Brad Keselowski
Some “surprise” dominators that could happen on Sunday include: Christopher Bell, Kevin Harvick, Kurt Busch, and Ryan Blaney.
Driver-by-Driver Breakdown Video
Now for the video breakdown! Be sure to go here and subscribe to my YouTube channel if you haven’t already.
Optimal Lineup According to Jordan’s Projections
The optimal DraftKings lineup for New Hampshire according to my Projections is:
- Denny Hamlin
- Joey Logano
- Martin Truex, Jr.
- Christopher Bell
- Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.
- Cole Custer
Confidence Rating = 8.5/10. I actually really like this lineup. As mentioned before, I think it’s going to be important to build lineups with two or three potential dominators in them. You have two solid dominator potentials here with Hamlin and Truex, and then outside dominators with Logano and Bell. If you’re looking for a lineup with pole sitter Kyle Busch in it, one of the top ones according to my projections is: Kyle Busch, Joey Logano, Martin Truex, Jr., Christopher Bell, Ricky Stenhouse, Jr., and Corey LaJoie.
GPP / Tournament Picks
Denny Hamlin ($10,000) – As weird as it sounds, I think Denny Hamlin has the potential to go under-owned in DraftKings this weekend despite being a very good price point on the salary table. I think a lot of DFS players are going to be gravitating toward stuffing in Kyle Larson ($11,200) since he’s starting back in 10th and, well, it’s Kyle Larson, which will force them to skip over Hamlin for some of the mid-to-lower $9,000 drivers. But Denny Hamlin is a great DraftKings pick this weekend. Looking at fastest laps, he’s put up 17+ in each oft he last five races at shorter flat tracks, and 38+ in all but one of those five. He’s finished 4th or better in four of the last five short flat track Cup Series races and has ended up 2nd in the last two Loudon races as well.
Aric Almirola ($8,400) – I hate the price point of Aric Almirola on DraftKings but I love the upside, and if I hate the price point that usually means most of the general public playing DraftKings on Sunday is going to hate it even more. But there’s legitimate top 10 potential here from Almirola this weekend, as crazy as it is to say. Over the last three Loudon races, Aric has posted finishes of 7th, 11th, and 3rd, and over the last six shorter flat track races he has yet to end up worse than 13th. This season, Almirola ended up 11th at Phoenix and then 6th at Richmond. There’s a ton of upside here, and AA is a great tournament play in my book.
Christopher Bell ($7,700) – I’m going to be very heavy on Christopher Bell this weekend, and it’d kind of be hypocritical if I wasn’t considering I wrote him up in my algorithm article, my betting article, and my Slingshot article for this race. Bell has legitimate top 5 finishing potential on Sunday and could put up 15-20 fastest laps as well. Is it a guarantee? No. Could CBell help someone win a lot of money this weekend? Absolutely. It’s rare for me to like DraftKings drivers in this mid-$7,000 price range, but when you look at Christopher Bell’s record on shorter tracks this year–9th at Phoenix, 7th at Martinsville, 4th at Richmond, 9th at Nashville–and add in the fact that New Hampshire has been one of his best tracks since he’s came into NASCAR and there’s crazy good upside with him this weekend.
Cash Core Drivers
Joey Logano ($9,500) – I also wrote up Joey Logano as a cash driver in my FanDuel article this week. He’s under-priced on both DFS sites this weekend. Here’s all you need to know about Logano for this race: he’s starting 15th and his last six finishes on this track type are 3rd, 2nd, 3rd, 3rd, 4th, and 1st. On finishing position alone, JoLo is a great DFS play on Sunday, and then he’s typically good for about 15+ fastest laps at these shorter flat tracks as well. Here at Loudon specifically, Joey has five top 5s in his last ten starts and only one result worse than 11th.
Martin Truex, Jr. ($9,100) – I talked in the video (linked above) how I could see Martin Truex, Jr. being bad chalk this weekend and the opportunity to go underweight on him in tournaments, but when it comes to a cash lineup, there’s no reason to go against this guy. He’s never won here at Loudon but he’s led 744 laps in his career here, which is the 4th-most of all active drivers. Looking at similar tracks this season, MTJ won at Phoenix and finished 5th at Richmond, putting up 52 and 74 fastest laps (respectively) along the way. In terms of laps led, he had 64 and 107 in those two races (respectively).
Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. ($7,100) – It kind of feels weird to say it but Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. is a pretty solid racer on flat tracks, and he’s starting back in 29th here in Sunday’s Foxwoods Resort Casino 301. He’s priced a little bit high in DraftKings at $7,100, but Stenhouse has legitimate top 15 potential, and has finished inside that mark in five of his last eight starts at that track. Looking at similar tracks this season, Stenhouse ended up 12th at Phoenix and 17th at Richmond. He’s a solid place differential play on Sunday.
New Hampshire Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 DraftKings Driver Projections
The following chart takes into account the very basics: the starting position and the projected finish of each driver. The projected finishes are averaged from six different ranking systems. Also factored in are projected laps led and fastest laps for each driver. You can click the headers below to sort the chart by that attribute. By default it is sorted by average projected FPTS.
|Driver||DraftKings Salary||Avg Proj FPTS||Proj Ownership||Starting Position||Ceiling Proj FPTS||Avg. Projected Finish||Dollar Per FPT|
|Martin Truex Jr||$9,100||70.20||38.60%||2||89.20||03.5||$130|
|Ricky Stenhouse Jr||$7,100||37.62||35.60%||29||47.15||17.8||$189|