The NASCAR Cup Series is racing at Kansas Speedway this weekend, and since this is the first race after Talladega and the starting lineup was set by the qualifying formula, we have a ton of great place differential options on the slate this weekend. Kansas is a 1.5-mile track that falls into the “low-wear” category. The most recent “low-wear” race this year was at Las Vegas a couple of months ago, and it was actually a really good race that Kyle Larson ended up winning. He’ll start 32nd here at Kansas this weekend but should be a contender once again.

Click here to check out my DraftKings post for this race. It’s a little bit more in-depth than this FanDuel post and there’s a lot of crossover with drivers between these two DFS sites. Also, my algorithm predicted finishing order is a great tool to check out as well. Click here to look at that.

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2020 Driver Loop Data Averages on Low-Wear Intermediate Tracks

Brad Keselowski 2019 American Paint Scheme
Photo Credit: Brian Lawdermilk/Getty Images

Below you will find a couple of data charts to check out. The first is how drivers performed in 2020 on the “low-wear” intermediate race tracks. That’s the type of track we’re dealing with at Kansas Speedway this weekend. In 2021, we’ve had one “low-wear” race so far, and it was at Las Vegas a couple of months ago. Here are direct links for the loop data from that race: click here for Green Flag Speed from Vegas, and click here for the full Loop Data Box Score.

Driver
Starts
Finish
ARP
DR
FL
LL
T15
Total Laps
Brad Keselowski906.410.297.311010820252617
Kevin Harvick907.209.2106.918632821412616
Ryan Blaney907.706.2114.223622524332616
Kyle Larson109.009.995.950249267
Martin Truex Jr909.408.3105.920825721702603
Kyle Busch910.810.996.112717220122616
Joey Logano911.008.8105.66821921332526
Kurt Busch911.811.991.4778520402546
Denny Hamlin912.115.190.214424715342609
Matt DiBenedetto912.612.588.2224018242525
Austin Dillon913.612.884.6202318922594
Chase Elliott913.908.8103.622625720952615
Alex Bowman914.908.7100.217826922072600
Aric Almirola914.914.784.69016414752615
Cole Custer915.718.872.02158372502
Erik Jones915.914.580.463914512615
Tyler Reddick916.015.575.843514602505
Christopher Bell916.917.872.24259392601
William Byron917.712.685.5865718342534
Ryan Newman819.920.562.01114712328
Chris Buescher920.321.165.122105372507
Ricky Stenhouse Jr921.120.668.120315812289
Corey LaJoie922.124.852.0811622607
Michael McDowell922.323.755.2512542591
Ty Dillon922.624.753.7301552537
Ross Chastain224.520.164.280149668
Daniel Suarez926.328.744.440202590
Bubba Wallace927.123.955.1402901957
Ryan Preece929.124.252.811852252
Josh Bilicki732.034.433.09031842
James Davison132.034.534.2000258
Quin Houff932.633.934.12012496
Joey Gase934.636.128.84012145
BJ McLeod435.034.730.7108980
Timmy Hill935.335.529.414052051

2019-2020 Driver Averages At Kansas

Driver
Starts
Finish
ARP
GFS
DR
FL
LL
T15
Total Laps
Chase Elliott406.007.3170.95108.4669710061082
Alex Bowman406.010.7170.37101.061768011082
Brad Keselowski406.507.8170.84106.571508981082
Kevin Harvick407.007.7171.09116.11251989521082
Denny Hamlin408.309.3170.84110.6752687911081
Erik Jones408.810.7170.7798.75908751082
Martin Truex Jr409.309.6170.94103.272778131081
Cole Custer210.515.8169.2279.630274534
William Byron410.812.6170.3588.431356881081
Kyle Larson211.010.0171.4299.14560435548
Kyle Busch412.309.0171.05101.0101578991079
Clint Bowyer413.312.5170.1887.015128061081
Aric Almirola413.514.0170.2983.81107181079
Kurt Busch414.512.3170.0990.31198371012
Tyler Reddick315.715.1170.2179.1180463804
Christopher Bell216.515.6169.4378.040283531
Joey Logano417.014.7171.1189.31778686990
Austin Dillon418.818.4169.1768.8203631065
Chris Buescher419.318.3170.0269.6410312997
Ryan Blaney420.009.5170.4693.162177881074
Ricky Stenhouse Jr420.816.2171.0772.3912397873
Michael McDowell421.324.8167.7654.540731077
Daniel Suarez422.821.3168.1561.11162681073
Corey LaJoie423.526.2167.6351.231651075
Matt DiBenedetto424.818.6170.2268.6112358980
Ryan Preece425.024.3168.8555.71057989
Ryan Newman428.322.9168.8452.951144859
Ross Chastain229.030.6167.1642.11117540
Bubba Wallace429.823.7169.3754.91060969
Garrett Smithley230.034.1159.6536.8200527
Quin Houff330.333.8162.2035.1000781
Josh Bilicki332.034.8160.1833.2400776
James Davison132.034.5165.2234.2000258
BJ McLeod139.039.2156.1323.800066

Driver-by-Driver Breakdown Video

Now for the video breakdown! Be sure to go here and subscribe to my YouTube channel if you haven’t already.

Optimal Lineup According to Jordan’s Projections

The optimal FanDuel lineup for Kansas according to my Projections is:

  • Kyle Larson
  • Joey Logano
  • Alex Bowman
  • Kurt Busch
  • Austin Cindric

Confidence Rating = 8.1/10. I think this FanDuel lineup is a solid base to work with, especially as a cash lineup. Another lineup that my projections love and I also like is: Kyle Larson, Kyle Busch, Ryan Blaney, Alex Bowman, and Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.

FanDuel “Safe” DFS Picks for Kansas (Cash Lineups)

Ryan Blaney and Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. racing at Talladega 2020
Photo Credit: Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images

Alex Bowman ($9,200) – No-brainer here. Alex Bowman is under-priced on FanDuel this week and has top 5 finishing potential as well as place differential potential since he starts back in 25th. Like I said, no-brained. Bowman is tied for the best average finish (6.0) here at Kansas since NASCAR’s new package took effect, and he also had the 3rd-best average running position on the “low-wear” 1.5-mile tracks in 2020. Earlier this season at Las Vegas, the #48 Chevrolet was a solid top 10 car all day but Bowman got hit with the #JordanJinx that race and had to pit late with a tire issue. He’s not getting jinxed this weekend is a must play driver on FanDuel, at least in my eyes.

Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. ($6,800) – Speaking of the #JordanJinx, that’s what hit Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. last week at Talladega, and caused him to crash out for the first time this 2021 season. But now that we got that out of the way, I’m expecting the “new normal” Stenhouse here at Kansas on Sunday. Obviously Austin Cindric ($6,200) is the place differential chalk in this price range, but my projections like Stenhouse better than Cindric this weekend and also give Ricky significantly higher upside, so I’ll be different and roll with Stenhouse in cash games. Here at Kansas, Ricky has finished 16th or better in seven of the last eleven races, and in three of the last four. He ran 11th at Las Vegas earlier this season.

FanDuel “Risky” DFS Picks for Kansas (Tournament Lineups)

Photo Credit: Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images

Kevin Harvick ($11,000) – Will this finally be the week that we see the “normal” Kevin Harvick? Well, if you believe it’s going to happen, this is a great opportunity to be overweight on “Happy” on FanDuel, as he’s priced really well at $11,000, and he’s going to be low-owned thanks to all of the place differential plays around him on the driver list. It doesn’t really mean a lot this season, but Harvick has led 198 laps over the last four races at Kansas and finished 4th and 2nd here last season. As I mentioned in my DFS breakdown video this week (linked above), we’re starting to creep to that time of the season when we’ll see a shift in speed a little bit. I’m on board for going heavier than the field on Harvick this weekend in DFS tournaments, but just know, it’s quite risky with how the Stewart-Haas Fords have performed this season.

William Byron ($9,500) – If you want a pivot off of Alex Bowman ($9,200), or even just want to combine the two Hendrick drivers, William Byron is a great option. Yes, he starts 2nd, which is risky, but if Byron can get the lead from Keselowski early in Sunday’s race, he has a chance to put up a good chunk of laps led this weekend. Plus, this #24 team’s momentum is off the charts right now, as they haven’t finished worse than 8th since the Daytona Road Course race in February. Here at Kansas, Byron has an average finish of 10.8 over the last four races and that includes three straight top 5s and 27 laps led in the first race here last season. I think this is a great position to be overweight on Byron in FanDuel this week, but nothing super excessive.

Kansas Buschy McBusch Race 400 FanDuel Driver Projections

The following chart takes into account the very basics: the starting position and the projected finish of each driver. The projected finishes are averaged from six different ranking systems. Also factored in are projected laps led for each driver. You can click the headers below to sort the chart by that attribute. By default it is sorted by average projected FPTS.

DriverFanDuel SalaryAvg Proj PtsStarting PositionCeiling Proj PtsDollar Per Pt
Kyle Larson$13,50080.873293.90$167
Denny Hamlin$14,00074.102087.60$189
Joey Logano$12,00073.902987.60$162
Martin Truex Jr.$13,00072.031578.90$180
Alex Bowman$9,20068.452580.80$134
Chase Elliott$11,50068.001774.70$169
Brad Keselowski$12,50067.42178.60$185
Ryan Blaney$10,00067.42781.30$148
Kyle Busch$10,50065.35979.80$161
Kurt Busch$8,70062.452867.90$139
Kevin Harvick$11,00058.62473.10$188
Christopher Bell$9,00057.25865.50$157
William Byron$9,50056.45270.30$168
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.$6,80056.452378.40$120
Erik Jones$7,00056.202760.30$125
Austin Cindric$6,20052.603861.50$118
Aric Almirola$7,50052.201858.90$144
Matt DiBenedetto$8,50050.95555.50$167
Tyler Reddick$7,80048.951156.70$159
Chris Buescher$6,30048.451661.80$130
Ross Chastain$5,50048.352456.00$114
Austin Dillon$8,00048.20658.10$166
Bubba Wallace$6,50043.601353.00$149
Daniel Suarez$5,80042.102161.70$138
Cole Custer$7,20041.601045.70$173
Chase Briscoe$5,20040.851948.80$127
Ryan Newman$6,00039.851444.70$151
Corey LaJoie$4,00039.252645.80$102
Ryan Preece$4,50038.601245.50$117
Justin Haley$2,00038.153144.20$52
Anthony Alfredo$3,50037.252244.20$94
Garrett Smithley$2,00036.053640.80$55
B.J. McLeod$3,00035.553039.20$84
Michael McDowell$5,00034.85345.80$143
Matt Mills$2,00034.103939.20$59
Josh Bilicki$2,50033.953741.20$74
Quin Houff$3,00032.703438.20$92
Cody Ware$2,50031.703336.40$79
Joey Gase$2,00031.103537.40$64
As someone who has always been obsessed with numbers, Fantasy NASCAR has been the perfect fit with me. I pride myself on the quality of my analysis for each race, and am glad that I have been able to help others along the way. I've been a serious Fantasy NASCAR player for over 10 years now, and I'm just getting started.