The NASCAR Cup Series is racing at Kansas Speedway this weekend, and since this is the first race after Talladega and the starting lineup was set by the qualifying formula, we have a ton of great place differential options on the slate this weekend. Kansas is a 1.5-mile track that falls into the “low-wear” category. The most recent “low-wear” race this year was at Las Vegas a couple of months ago, and it was actually a really good race that Kyle Larson ended up winning. He’ll start 32nd here at Kansas this weekend but should be a contender once again.
Click here to check out my DraftKings post for this race. It’s a little bit more in-depth than this FanDuel post and there’s a lot of crossover with drivers between these two DFS sites. Also, my algorithm predicted finishing order is a great tool to check out as well. Click here to look at that.
If you enjoy the FREE NASCAR content on this site, consider supporting by donating here.
2020 Driver Loop Data Averages on Low-Wear Intermediate Tracks
Below you will find a couple of data charts to check out. The first is how drivers performed in 2020 on the “low-wear” intermediate race tracks. That’s the type of track we’re dealing with at Kansas Speedway this weekend. In 2021, we’ve had one “low-wear” race so far, and it was at Las Vegas a couple of months ago. Here are direct links for the loop data from that race: click here for Green Flag Speed from Vegas, and click here for the full Loop Data Box Score.
|Martin Truex Jr||9||09.4||08.3||105.9||208||257||2170||2603|
|Ricky Stenhouse Jr||9||21.1||20.6||68.1||20||31||581||2289|
2019-2020 Driver Averages At Kansas
|Martin Truex Jr||4||09.3||09.6||170.94||103.2||72||77||813||1081|
|Ricky Stenhouse Jr||4||20.8||16.2||171.07||72.3||9||12||397||873|
Driver-by-Driver Breakdown Video
Now for the video breakdown! Be sure to go here and subscribe to my YouTube channel if you haven’t already.
Optimal Lineup According to Jordan’s Projections
The optimal FanDuel lineup for Kansas according to my Projections is:
- Kyle Larson
- Joey Logano
- Alex Bowman
- Kurt Busch
- Austin Cindric
Confidence Rating = 8.1/10. I think this FanDuel lineup is a solid base to work with, especially as a cash lineup. Another lineup that my projections love and I also like is: Kyle Larson, Kyle Busch, Ryan Blaney, Alex Bowman, and Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.
FanDuel “Safe” DFS Picks for Kansas (Cash Lineups)
Alex Bowman ($9,200) – No-brainer here. Alex Bowman is under-priced on FanDuel this week and has top 5 finishing potential as well as place differential potential since he starts back in 25th. Like I said, no-brained. Bowman is tied for the best average finish (6.0) here at Kansas since NASCAR’s new package took effect, and he also had the 3rd-best average running position on the “low-wear” 1.5-mile tracks in 2020. Earlier this season at Las Vegas, the #48 Chevrolet was a solid top 10 car all day but Bowman got hit with the #JordanJinx that race and had to pit late with a tire issue. He’s not getting jinxed this weekend is a must play driver on FanDuel, at least in my eyes.
Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. ($6,800) – Speaking of the #JordanJinx, that’s what hit Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. last week at Talladega, and caused him to crash out for the first time this 2021 season. But now that we got that out of the way, I’m expecting the “new normal” Stenhouse here at Kansas on Sunday. Obviously Austin Cindric ($6,200) is the place differential chalk in this price range, but my projections like Stenhouse better than Cindric this weekend and also give Ricky significantly higher upside, so I’ll be different and roll with Stenhouse in cash games. Here at Kansas, Ricky has finished 16th or better in seven of the last eleven races, and in three of the last four. He ran 11th at Las Vegas earlier this season.
FanDuel “Risky” DFS Picks for Kansas (Tournament Lineups)
Kevin Harvick ($11,000) – Will this finally be the week that we see the “normal” Kevin Harvick? Well, if you believe it’s going to happen, this is a great opportunity to be overweight on “Happy” on FanDuel, as he’s priced really well at $11,000, and he’s going to be low-owned thanks to all of the place differential plays around him on the driver list. It doesn’t really mean a lot this season, but Harvick has led 198 laps over the last four races at Kansas and finished 4th and 2nd here last season. As I mentioned in my DFS breakdown video this week (linked above), we’re starting to creep to that time of the season when we’ll see a shift in speed a little bit. I’m on board for going heavier than the field on Harvick this weekend in DFS tournaments, but just know, it’s quite risky with how the Stewart-Haas Fords have performed this season.
William Byron ($9,500) – If you want a pivot off of Alex Bowman ($9,200), or even just want to combine the two Hendrick drivers, William Byron is a great option. Yes, he starts 2nd, which is risky, but if Byron can get the lead from Keselowski early in Sunday’s race, he has a chance to put up a good chunk of laps led this weekend. Plus, this #24 team’s momentum is off the charts right now, as they haven’t finished worse than 8th since the Daytona Road Course race in February. Here at Kansas, Byron has an average finish of 10.8 over the last four races and that includes three straight top 5s and 27 laps led in the first race here last season. I think this is a great position to be overweight on Byron in FanDuel this week, but nothing super excessive.
Kansas Buschy McBusch Race 400 FanDuel Driver Projections
The following chart takes into account the very basics: the starting position and the projected finish of each driver. The projected finishes are averaged from six different ranking systems. Also factored in are projected laps led for each driver. You can click the headers below to sort the chart by that attribute. By default it is sorted by average projected FPTS.
|Driver||FanDuel Salary||Avg Proj Pts||Starting Position||Ceiling Proj Pts||Dollar Per Pt|
|Martin Truex Jr.||$13,000||72.03||15||78.90||$180|
|Ricky Stenhouse Jr.||$6,800||56.45||23||78.40||$120|