In most Atlanta races, we see more than a couple drivers make their way through the field and finish up front after starting outside of the top 10, and it’s looking like that’s going to be the case once again this weekend. Of course, for there to be drivers with positive place differential, there has to be drivers with negative place differential–a.k.a. the ones you need to avoid. With that being said, there are also some ‘top tier’ drivers that might be worth a fade this weekend, and some that are priced a little too high in the DraftKings driver pool.

Also check out: DraftKings Drivers to Target at Atlanta

DraftKings Drivers to Avoid for the Atlanta QuikTrip Folds of Honor 500

Austin Dillon ($8,200) – With a starting position of 19th, Austin Dillon would look like a very good option in DraftKings for most races. Atlanta, however, is not one of those races. Austin has made four career starts at this track, but let’s focus on the last three, since those were all ran in the #3 Chevrolet. He finished 24th back in 2014, followed by a 39th-place effort in 2015. Last season, Austin ended up 11th (after starting 8th), but how legitimate was that run? Considering the #3 Chevrolet had an average running position of 17th in that race, it’s quite easy to assume that Dillon didn’t have the 11th-best car. As far as this weekend goes, there is a chance that he may be able to get up inside the top 15 before it’s all said and done, but $8,200 in salary is a lot of coin for a driver that may or may not have a decent finish. Austin did run the most laps of all drivers during Happy Hour but never showed an incredible amount of speed.

Kyle Busch ($10,400) – Rowdy is a pretty good option in a lot of Fantasy NASCAR leagues this weekend. However, DraftKings is not one of them. He qualified 3rd for Sunday’s QuikTrip Folds of Honor 500, which is typically a good thing, but if you’re going to spend $10,400 on a driver, you’re going to need to get dominator points (laps led and fastest laps FPTS). Now, fastest laps are hard to predict, especially at a track like Atlanta, but it’s hard to imagine Kyle Busch leading a whole bunch of laps here on Sunday, simply because he’s going to have to somehow get ahead of Kevin Harvick and Brad Keselowski. Now obviously Rowdy will be in the catbird seat if those two Fords have issues early, but the chance of something happening to both Harvick and Keselowski isn’t very high. Kyle Busch should be a solid 4th-to-7th-place finisher here on Sunday afternoon, but simply posting that kind of result isn’t going to score a whole lot of FPTS in DraftKings.

Ryan Blaney ($7,200) – Running well at Atlanta Motor Speedway requires you to have a bit of aggressiveness within your driving habits, as well as the intuition on when to turn that aggressiveness up. And while we only have one full season of Cup racing to judge Ryan Blaney on, I still have yet to see any sort of aggressiveness out of this kid. That’s part of the season why he only had three top 5 finishes in his rookie year while Chase Elliott wound up with ten. Anyway, Blaney is priced correctly this weekend and would be a solid choice in DraftKings if he qualified back in the mid-20s. However, the #21 Ford will roll off the grid from 14th when we get going on Sunday, and that’s about the highest Blaney’s going to finish, too (without some crazy ending or a bunch of wrecks). He started 23rd and finished 25th in this race last season, although it should be noted that Blaney had an average running position of 15th in that race. He’d be worth a shot if he had a top 10 car this weekend, but Ryan barely showed top 20 speed on Saturday, let alone top 10.

Clint Bowyer ($8,400) – Clint Bowyer’s draft percentage is going to be decently high this weekend due to the fact that he qualified 25th, but don’t let those potential place differential FPTS blind you: Clint is simply not very good here at Atlanta Motor Speedway. In fact, he hasn’t finished better than 24th since the 2010 season. Overall, Bowyer has an average finish of 22.1 over his sixteen career starts here and, to put that in perspective, Michael Waltrip (22.0), Casey Mears (21.8), and Brett Moffitt (21.0) all are besting him in that category. The #14 team did find some speed during Happy Hour on Saturday, but then again Bowyer only ran 46 total laps in that session, which is a red flag. The $8,400 price tag is the final nail in the coffin for Bowyer this weekend: he simply costs too much to even take a chance with him on a small percentage of lineups.

Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. ($6,900) – This should be a no-brainer, but there’s bound to be some people looking at Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. as a possible option simply because he’s low-priced. However, the fact that he qualified 4th for Sunday’s race overshadows any reason to take a chance with Stenhouse at Atlanta this weekend. Yes, he finished 10th in this race last season (after starting 5th), but the chances of that occurring again isn’t very high. Stenhouse was 13th-fastest in Happy Hour and posted the 4th-best ten-lap average, but even those impressive speeds aren’t enough to make Ricky a viable option on Sunday. For what it’s worth, each time Stenhouse qualified inside the top 6 last season, he ended up finishing 16th or better. Those negative place differential FPTS are going to kill his viability in DraftKings, though.

Usually, the key to finishing near the top in DraftKings when it comes to the restrictor plate races is to find one or two ‘diamonds in the rough’–that is, drivers that aren’t highly drafted but still put up big points. Of course, you also have to have your mix of ‘favorites’ in your lineup, because there are quite a few drivers in the field that are consistently good picks at this track type. Place differential points are going to be huge in DraftKings this weekend, especially if you want to take home that $50,000 prize in the $20 contest being offered. The good news is that there are quite a few good cars starting in the rear on Sunday. Now you have to decide which ones make the most sense to shove in your lineup.

Also check out: DraftKings Drivers to Avoid in the Daytona 500

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High-Dollar DraftKings Drivers to Target in the Daytona 500 (over $9,000)

Jimmie Johnson ($10,000) – The ownership percentages on Dale Earnhardt, Jr. ($10,600) and Brad Keselowski ($10,000) are going to be decently high on Saturday, and because of that Jimmie Johnson is going to be overlooked by many DFS players. Don’t be one of those people. Johnson is a consistent performer here at Daytona and has posted five top 5 finishes in the last eight non-exhibition races ran here–including two trips to victory lane back in 2013. Further, because of his 24th-place starting spot this Sunday, I have Jimmie projected with a higher amount of base FPTS than Earnhardt and Keselowski. Finally, looking at the last six overall races here at Daytona, the #48 Chevrolet has the 4th-most laps led in the series with 107. This team has had some bad luck thus far during Speed Weeks but are more than capable of a strong showing in The Great American Race on Sunday.

Joey Logano ($9,900) – Will we see back-to-back seasons where the Clash winner went on to take the Daytona 500 checkered flag? We will know soon enough. There’s really not a whole lot to dislike about Joey Logano in The Great American race this weekend. He has established himself as one of the top plate racers in the series, he’s a previous Daytona 500 champion, he has a very strong Penske car, and the list goes on and on. Oh, and for DraftKings purposes, he will start from back in 15th on Sunday, so the potential for some place differential FPTS are there. He’s also probably going to be pretty highly owned, but as mentioned before, you need one or two of those drivers in your lineup. Logano has finished 6th or better in three of the last four Daytona races and should be able to get up to the front and work with his teammate, Brad Keselowski, early on Sunday. Also, don’t forget about the extra boost of momentum Joey has after signing that new contract extension this weekend. It doesn’t make any sense but that type of stuff always has a positive effect on drivers.

Denny Hamlin ($9,600) – No driver has completed back-to-back victories in the Daytona 500 since Sterling Marlin did it back in 1994 and 1995, but Denny Hamlin could very easily add his name to the brief list of drivers who accomplished that feat on Sunday. The #11 Toyota was the best car in the field during last weekend’s Clash and led the most laps, and would have had a good finish if Denny and Brad Keselowski didn’t get tangled up on the last lap. You have to go for the win there, though. Then, in Thursday night’s Duel race, Hamlin had literally no help from his Toyota teammates but was still able to get to victory lane (after passing Dale Earnhardt, Jr.) thanks to a push from Austin Dillon. The #11 Toyota is the best car heading into Sunday’s Daytona 500, but at this lower price point, Hamlin is going to be in a lot of lineups. There’s an argument to fade him on Sunday, but that won’t be a very good strategy if Denny leads 80 laps and gets to victory lane.

Mid-Range DraftKings Drivers to Target in the Daytona 500 (between $7,500 and $9,000)

Kyle Larson ($8,500) – On Thursday night, Kyle Larson’s teammate, Jamie McMurray, showed just how much horsepower the Ganassi cars have, and it’s really not that surprising now that the organization has a closer working partnership with Hendrick due to Stewart-Haas’ transition to Ford. That should pay dividends on the restrictor plate tracks this year. Larson is going to be a boom or bust Fantasy NASCAR option here at Daytona on Sunday, and while he’s not very respected for his plate track skills, let’s not forget that the #42 Chevrolet had a 15.0 average finish at Daytona and Talladega last season. Here specifically, Kyle finished 7th and 6th, and you know he’s looking to build on those good runs. Larson ended 2016 with a whole bunch of momentum, and usually that’s a good sign for the next year’s Daytona 500 (for whatever reason). He will roll off the grid from 16th when Sunday’s race goes green.

Erik Jones ($8,300) – The potential Rookie of the Year has a couple of things going against him in DraftKings this weekend: 1.) he’s over-priced, and 2.) he’s unproven. That’s where you can capitalize though. Jones will start from back in 34th when Sunday’s Daytona 500 goes green, so he’s going to have some work to do in order to get to the front. The good news is that he’s going to have some help in the form of his teammate, Martin Truex, Jr., who will start in the rear after failing post-race inspection on Thursday night. The #77 Toyota that Jones is driving is a brand new operation, but that isn’t particularly a bad thing. It’s still a Toyota, which are probably the strongest at Daytona this weekend, and let’s not forget that Truex almost won this race last year. If you can fit Erik Jones in your lineup on Sunday, he has some major FPTS potential and will probably be under-owned.

Kasey Kahne ($7,600) – There’s going to be a lot of Martin Truex, Jr. in lineups on Sunday (he was originally in this spot for me to talk about) but why not try to be different? Kasey Kahne will be starting from back in 26th and has a car that could make it up into the top 10 before this year’s Great American Race is all said and done. Kasey has finished 13th and 9th in the last two Daytona 500s and if he’s able to post a finish like that here on Sunday, he’s going to be a steal at that $7,600 price point. It’s not very often that you get Hendrick power for such a low salary at a restrictor plate track.

Low-Dollar DraftKings Drivers to Target in the Daytona 500 (under $7,500)

A.J. Allmendinger ($6,700) – I love A.J. Allmendinger in a whole lot of Fantasy NASCAR leagues this weekend. He finished 4th in the Duel race on Thursday night but failed post-race inspection and will have to start from the rear (38th) on Sunday. As was mentioned before, though, you have to capitalize on those place differential FPTS in DraftKings this weekend. The #47 Chevrolet is strong enough to post a top 10 finish, but a result between 15th and 20th is much more likely. In fact, over the last four regular season races here at Daytona, Allmendinger has wound up between 13th and 21st in each of them, and don’t forget that he posted a solid average finish of 15.6 on the four restrictor plate races last season. When it comes to my base FPTS projections, A.J. Allmendinger is at the top of the list for this weekend’s race. The unfortunate thing is he’s probably going to be one of the higher-owned drivers on Sunday.

Ryan Blaney ($7,300) – Ryan Blaney and the #21 team had a very strong showing during their Duel race on Thursday night but ended up getting some damage mid-race that ended their night early. They also had to go to a backup car, and because of that Blaney will be starting this year’s Daytona 500 from in 36th. And just like A.J. Allmendinger, there’s a whole lot of place differential FPTS up for grabs there. Blaney had a rough go of things in his first career Monster Energy Cup start here at Daytona (39th in the 2015 Daytona 500 with a blown engine) but he wound up finishing 19th and 14th in the two regular season races here last season. Speed-wise, the Fords seem to be right there with the Toyotas heading into Sunday, and Blaney should have a good showing because of it–as long as he can stay out of trouble. Last year, he had the 8th-best average driver rating (89.2) on restrictor plate tracks and the 8th-best average finish (13.3), too.

Elliott Sadler ($6,600) – Sadler is a bit over-priced this weekend, but there is no risk in putting the driver starting dead last in your lineup on Sunday. Elliott is no stranger to Cup racing and if he can just go out there and drive smart he could easily come away with a mid-20s finish. An early (or late) “big one” wreck that doesn’t include Sadler could easily make him one of the best point-per-dollar plays in the field. Remember, finding a ‘diamond in the rough’ is an important part of being very successful on Sunday, and Sadler’s high salary is bound to deter quite a few people from rostering him.