The NASCAR Cup Series is at Martinsville Speedway this weekend for some Saturday night race under the lights! Typically we have 500-lap races at this track, but this weekend it’s down to 400 laps (or 200 miles). With so many laps, it’s going to be important to nail the dominators in DraftKings lineups, but there are plenty of place differential plays to consider and balance as well. It should be a very fun weekend to build DFS lineups for “The Paperclip,” and we’ll do so LIVE!

Jordan is going LIVE on YouTube on Saturday afternoon to build DraftKings lineups and answer questions about the race. It is planned to start at 2:00 pm ET. Visit his YouTube channel (click here) on Saturday at that time and tune in!

DraftKings Fantasy Strategy for Martinsville

• Just like last weekend at Richmond, we need to put a focus on dominator points for Martinsville on Saturday night. This race is scheduled for 400 laps, which means we’re looking at 100 DraftKings FPTS for laps led and probably around 145 DraftKings FPTS for fastest laps, depending on cautions.
• With that being said, there are a ton of place differential plays in the field this weekend as well, so we’re going to have to keep that in mind, too. This will be a more balanced lineup building approach than Richmond was, in my opinion.
• Martinsville is a half-mile flat track. We’ve already raced at two flat tracks this season (Phoenix and Richmond) but those don’t compare super close to Martinsville. You can also throw Loudon and Nashville into this short, flat category if you’d like.

Optimal Lineup According to Jordan’s Projections

The optimal DraftKings lineup for Martinsville on Saturday night according to my Projections is:

• Chase Elliott
• Ryan Blaney
• William Byron
• AJ Allmendinger
• Bubba Wallace
• Corey LaJoie

DraftKings NASCAR Picks for the Blue-Emu Maximum Pain Relief 400

Chase Elliott ($11,200) – I don’t think you can go against Chase Elliott as a cash play option in DraftKings on Saturday night. Obviously there’s an opportunity to go underweight here when mass entering GPPs, but if you’re building only a handful of lineups, I think you need Chase Elliott on there in the majority of them, if not all. The Hendrick cars are just so fast this weekend, and Martinsville is a great track for Chase. He’s led 575 laps here over the last six races and has also finished 1st or 2nd in three of those. In practice on Friday, the #9 Chevrolet had the best 20-, 25-, and 30-lap averages, and with Aric Almirola, Cole Custer, and Chris Buescher starting 2nd through 4th on Saturday night, Elliott should be able to easily break away from the field at the start and gobble up those early dominator points.

William Byron ($9,500) – It took a couple of years for William Byron to “get good” here at Martinsville, but he’s definitely up there now. Over the last five races at this track, Willy B has finished top 5 in three of them and 8th in another. He wrecked out of the 2020 fall race, so you can kind of throw that result out the window. As far as this weekend goes, Byron starts up in 5th, so rolling with Chase Elliott and Byron in the same lineup is kind of risky, but you should all know by now that that’s how I play when it comes to DraftKings. In practice on Friday, Byron was strong, ranking 4th in 5-lap average, 2nd in 10-lap average, and then best in 15-lap average. He didn’t make a run longer than that. If he has similar long-run speed as Chase Elliott does, I could easily see these two being the main dominators on Saturday night.

Ty Dillon ($5,500) – Neither of the Petty GMS Chevrolets showed a ton of speed here at Martinsville on Friday, but I’m not overly concerned about it. Ty Dillon starting 34th at $5,500 is a chalky play but a very safe play. Make sure you tune into the live stream because we’ll talk about pivoting to Harrison Burton ($5,600) or Corey LaJoie ($5,300) here, but for cash lineups, Ty is the play. He’s been a consistent 17th-to-24th-place finisher all season long since Daytona, and here at Martinsville specifically, he only has one result worse than 24th in Cup Series competition. Safe and consistent: you can’t ask for much more out of this price range in DraftKings.

Notes On Other Drivers

HIGH-RISK, HIGH REWARD TOURNAMENT PLAY: Kyle Busch ($10,000) – At the end of the Stacking Dennys podcast this week (listen below), RotoDoc and I made our picks to win the race. I said I had a gut feeling that Kyle Busch takes it. Even though the Toyotas fell off majorly on the speed chart during the long runs in practice (this is a major concern), I still think Kyle Busch can end up being a factor here on Saturday night, and as far as DraftKings goes, I think it’s a great position to be overweight on him. Looking at the highest-priced drivers this weekend, Rowdy is sandwiched in there between the major chalk up top (Truex, Elliott, Blaney) along with the semi-chalk of Larson, Hamlin, Logano, and Byron. When it comes to Martinsville history, Kyle Busch has top 5 finishes in nine of the last thirteen races at this track, and this team had a great run going at Richmond last weekend before the whole tape incident happened. For what it’s worth, Busch had the 2nd-best 20-lap average during practice on Friday, but as I said before, all of the Toyotas fell off majorly after that mark. Hopefully they get that fixed.

What About AJ Allmendinger ($6,600)? – AJ Allmendinger is starting dead last in 36th since he wasn’t able to make a qualifying run, and he’ll also have to serve a pass-through penalty once the race starts. That will likely put Allmendinger at least two laps down. From there, it’s going to be about luck. Martinsville is one of AJ’s best tracks, and if he can get on the lead lap, he should be able to easily make the optimal lineup with his $6,600 salary. The only question is whether the cautions will fly early enough and at the right time for that to happen. Personally, I think Allmendinger will be fine and is a very good DFS play this weekend.

Stacking Dennys Podcast with Jordan & RotoDoc

Martinsville Blue-Emu Maximum Pain Relief 400 DraftKings Driver Projections

The following chart takes into account the very basics: the starting position and the projected finish of each driver. The projected finishes are averaged from six different ranking systems. Also factored in are projected laps led and fastest laps for each driver. You can click the headers below to sort the chart by that attribute. By default, it is sorted by average projected FPTS.

The NASCAR Cup Series is at Richmond Raceway this weekend for the Toyota Owners 400. Richmond is a 0.75-mile D-shaped flat track that compares most to Phoenix, where we raced at less than a month ago. In that race, Ryan Blaney had the dominant car early and led 143 laps, but it was Chase Briscoe who took over the final part of the race and ended up in victory lane after leading 101 laps. When it comes to Richmond, the Joe Gibbs Racing Toyotas have dominated recently, but with their lack of speed thus far in 2022, we’ll have to wait and see if that domination continues.

Jordan plans on once again going LIVE on YouTube Sunday morning to build DraftKings lineups and answer questions about the race. Make sure you pay attention to his Twitter feed (click here) and his YouTube channel (click here) on Sunday for the official time.

DraftKings Fantasy Strategy for Richmond

• Last week, we focused on place differential and finishing position because the race at Circuit of the Americas was only 68 laps. That’s not the case this weekend. Sunday’s race at Richmond is scheduled for 400 laps, which means you have to nail the dominators in your lineup. Typically we see two dominators in a Richmond race. With 400 laps scheduled, we’re looking at 100 DraftKings FPTS for laps led and probably around 145 DraftKings FPTS for fastest laps, depending on cautions.
• Again, Phoenix is the most similar track to Richmond, so we can definitely look back at that race earlier this year and cross-reference with this weekend’s practice data at Richmond to determine who should be fastest. One major difference between Phoenix and Richmond, though, is that typically Phoenix goes through some changes throughout the race, which causes comers and goers. At Richmond, the drivers that are fast typically stay up front all race unless they run into an issue.
• Another short, flat track that compares decently to Richmond is New Hampshire Motor Speedway (Loudon). Some people throw in Nashville and Martinsville into the short, flat category, but those two really aren’t super comparable to Richmond, so don’t put a ton of weight into the history from those tracks.

Optimal Lineup According to Jordan’s Projections

The optimal DraftKings lineup for Richmond on Sunday according to my Projections is:

• Ryan Blaney
• Joey Logano
• Alex Bowman
• Kevin Harvick
• Aric Almirola
• Austin Dillon

DraftKings NASCAR Picks for the Toyota Owners 400 at Richmond

Ryan Blaney ($9,400) – Oh, what a difference a year (and a new car) makes. Last year at Richmond, I made one of the biggest bets of my life on Christopher Bell (at plus-money odds) over Ryan Blaney at Richmond. Why? Because Ryan Blaney has historically struggled at Richmond, to the tune of an average finish of 22.2 and a best finish of 10th in eleven career starts. As I mentioned on the Stacking Dennys podcast this week, though (listen below), I think this is going to be the weekend that Young Ryan Blaney finally turns it all around at Richmond. He had the dominant car at Phoenix earlier this year for the first half of the race, and the #12 Ford was crazy fast this weekend in practice like it has been all year long. Blaney started to figure out Richmond a bit last season and with this new car I think he finally shows his true short, flat prowess in Sunday’s Toyota Owners 400.

Alex Bowman ($8,500) – You can’t pass up a Hendrick Motorsports driver that’s starting back in 28th. Alex Bowman tweeted after qualifying on Saturday that his #48 Chevrolet didn’t have speed in qualifying but it sure did on the long runs, and that’s what it’s going to take to have a good race in the Toyota Owners 400 on Sunday. In terms of ten-lap average, Bowman ranked 13th-best in that statistic during practice on Saturday. Looking at Richmond last year, Alex “stole” a win here in the first race and then came home 12th in the fall. At Phoenix last month, Bowman ended up finishing 14th and had the 11th-best Green Flag Speed.

Kevin Harvick ($8,000) – My first two picks were “safe” / cash plays. This is a “risky” / tournament play this weekend. Hopefully his starting position of 7th keeps some DraftKings players away from Kevin Harvick on Sunday. But with that being said, I love the $8,000 price tag here even despite the higher starting spot. Kevin Harvick has a great car for Sunday’s Toyota Owners 400 at Richmond. As RotoDoc and I have talked about on the podcast before, when Harvick makes a long run and likes his car in practice, it’s a very good sign. This weekend, “Happy” ranked 5th in ten-lap average, 4th in fifteen-lap average, and 3rd in twenty-lap average. At Phoenix last month, Harvick had the 3rd-fastest Green Flag Speed and also put up the 4th-most fastest laps (20). His record here at Richmond isn’t quite as impressive, but he does nine finishes of 8th or better in the last eleven races at this track. I’ll gladly be overweight on Harvick this weekend and hope he emerges as a second dominator in the race.

Stacking Dennys Podcast with Jordan & RotoDoc

Richmond Toyota Owners 400 DraftKings Driver Projections

The following chart takes into account the very basics: the starting position and the projected finish of each driver. The projected finishes are averaged from six different ranking systems. Also factored in are projected laps led and fastest laps for each driver. You can click the headers below to sort the chart by that attribute. By default, it is sorted by average projected FPTS.

The NASCAR Cup Series rolls into Richmond Raceway this weekend for the Toyota Owners 400. The 2022 season has been full of variety and excitement thus far with several different track types and three first-time winners. Unfortunately, Richmond isn’t known for the most exciting product, but who knows, that could change with the new car!

Pace Laps: Info to Know

Richmond Raceway is a 0.75-mile tri-oval with above average tire degradation and relatively flat banking. Comparable tracks include Phoenix, New Hampshire, and, to a much lesser extent, Martinsville, all of which are flatter tracks less than or equal to 1 mile in length.

It has been said that Richmond and Phoenix are reverse versions of each other where speed is sustained by momentum through the corners onto the straightaways. On the other hand, New Hampshire and Martinsville are more so rhythm tracks with an emphasis on precise braking. Though Richmond and Phoenix are similar, oddly enough, some drivers do better at one than the other, but with the new car, all bets are off.

Unlike races at intermediate tracks or superspeedways, nailing the right combination of dominators is essential to DFS success at short tracks due to the increased number of laps and thus, dominator points available. As seen at Phoenix earlier this season, fast cars with fast pit crews were able to stay up front. Fortunately for DFS players, due to this, Richmond is one of the more predictable tracks on the circuit.

Stage 1: Trends to Follow

• Over the past 7 Richmond races, drivers starting in the top 10 have achieved a top 10 DraftKings score nearly seven times as often as drivers starting 30th or worse. Place differential is hard to come by and short, flat tracks. There are not many grooves to make passes, and drivers in the back are likely to get lapped quickly. Since 2018, 34 drivers had a top 10 DK score from a starting position of 10th or better, while just 5 drivers starting worse than 30th have achieved the same feat. On the other hand, bottom 10 DraftKings performances occurred fives times more often from backmarker cars than those starting up front.

• Since 2018, all optimal lineups at Richmond have featured at least two drivers scoring 10 or more dominator points. In each of these 7 races, there were at least 5 drivers who met this criteria mainly through 20+ fastest laps. In all but one race, there were 4 or more drivers who led 25+ laps as well. Of those who accomplished this feat and did not land in the optimal lineup, all achieved a top 10 DraftKings score, allowing DFS players to cash despite not being optimal.

• Roster at least 3 drivers starting in the top 20 and no more than 2 drivers starting worse than 25th. Since place differential is hard to obtain at Richmond and there are few wrecks, it is better to target drivers starting mid-pack than those in the back. If each driver starting worse than 20th gains 5 positions, the driver starting 21st, for example, is going to greatly outscore a driver starting 30th. Does it seem riskier to play drivers with lower ceiling? Yes. Is it worth it to lock in their higher floor? Certainly.

Stage 2: Drivers to Watch

Martin Truex Jr. ($9,600) – Though 2022 has not gone great for Joe Gibbs Racing so far, Richmond is a place where they could rebound. MTJ has 3 wins and 6 top 5 finishes in his last 6 Richmond races. That’s right, a 100% hit rate despite varying rules packages. In practice yesterday, Truex ranked 3rd in 15 lap average speed. Many will flock to Ryan Blaney starting on the pole for $200 less, but I will take my chances with Truex. Blaney has been extremely fast in 2022 and is due for a good finish here. However, it is statistically his worst track and his pit crew continues to give up positions weekly. For what it’s worth, the polesitter has only made the optimal lineup once in the past 6 races at Richmond. Oh, and Truex is running his blue Auto-Owners paint scheme… If you know, you know.

Christopher Bell ($8,700) – If you listened to the Stacking Dennys podcast this week or even last year, you know the drill. Always consider Bell and Almirola at short, flat tracks. Christopher Bell finished 4th and 3rd at Richmond in 2021 and contended for the win at New Hampshire as well. He was an absolute beast at this track type in the Xfinity Series and that has carried over to the Cup Series. Bell ranked 2nd in 10 lap average and 3rd in 15 lap average in practice yesterday and should contend for a top 5 finish, if not a win.

Kevin Harvick ($8,000) – Sensing a trend yet? These drivers starting in the top 10 had speed in qualifying as well and cannot be faded! It has been quite a while since Harvick has been recommended as a good DraftKings play, but the data cannot be ignored. He has finished 8th or better in 7 of the last 9 Richmond races and is widely regarded as the “King of Phoenix”, a similar track to Richmond. He also looked fast in practice, ranking 3rd in 20 lap average speed and 10th in single lap speed. Recent poor results may allow him to go under-owned, but after his 6th place finish (and 4th ranked driver rating) at Phoenix earlier this season, Harvick is one of the better leverage plays on the slate.

Austin Dillon ($7,000) – No, practice speed was not that impressive. No, he hasn’t been great in 2022. No, he’ll never be as good as his teammate, Tyler Reddick. Despite all that, Austin Dillon makes for a great play in all formats this weekend. Obviously, a practice run lasting longer than nine laps would have been nice to see, but he still ranked 10th in overall average lap time. Somehow, some way, he has continued to contend for finishes around 10th to 15th weekly this season when issues don’t arise. With 3 finishes of 6th or better at Richmond and 6 top 15s in his last 7 starts, Dillon has a high chance of being optimal with a similar result.

Other drivers to consider (in order of salary, favorites in bold): Chase Elliott, Kyle Larson, Ryan Blaney, Denny Hamlin, Joey Logano, Ross Chastain, Alex Bowman, Tyler Reddick, Kurt Busch, Aric Almirola, AJ Allmendinger, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Bubba Wallace. 

For any questions or comments, you can always find me on Twitter. Best of luck this weekend!