Richmond Raceway is the site of this weekend’s NASCAR Cup Series race, as the Federated Auto Parts 400 will be ran on Saturday night under the lights. Richmond is a 0.75-mile flat track that compares extremely well to Phoenix Raceway as well as New Hampshire Motor Speedway. When you look at the data between these three tracks, the best cars stick out time and time again, and we don’t see much change with the top 5 drivers–especially over the last two years. That makes it very fun to build a betting card, and with as hot as these betting cards have been lately (see tweet below) and how predictable Richmond usually is, I’m feeling extremely confident heading into this weekend’s race.
Richmond Betting Card
Joey Logano to Win (+1500) – Remember back to Watkins Glen when Caesars Sportsbook offered a 100% profit boost in which I recommended you use on Kyle Larson to get him to +900 for that race? Same thing happened here, only this time you could essentially bet Joey Logano at 15-to-1 completely risk free. I tweeted it out and even wrote a full article here on the site on how to do it. Hopefully you took advantage of it. Plain and simple, Joey Logano is elite on short, flat tracks and has no finishes worse than 4th on this track type since the start of 2020. Even at New Hampshire this year, where Logano was two laps down early, he rallied for a 4th-place finish. Here at Richmond, he’s a two-time winner and should contend on Saturday night as well. Getting him at +1500 was a no-brainer, and also allows you to hit Truex and Hamlin at their shorter odds and have the three best chances to win (according to my algorithm) on the same betting card.
Favorite Bet of the Week
Matt DiBenedetto Top 20 Finish (-140) – Penske Racing is very good at short, flat tracks, and ever since Matt DiBenedetto took over this Wood Brother Racing Ford (a Penske affiliate), he’s been very good on them as well. Over the last two years on short, flat tracks (which is seven races total), DiBenedetto has just one finish worse than 14th, and it was a 17th in last year’s Richmond race. Getting Matty D at -140 for a top 20 was absolute smash time for me, and I still don’t mind betting him after the odds shift (this prop was -180 as of Thursday afternoon).
Rest of Jordan’s Card
Austin Dillon Top 20 Finish (-170) – Again, hammer time. Austin Dillon is legitimately good here at Richmond Raceway, and probably had the car to beat last year before his night was derailed with pit road issues. He still finished 4th in that race. Additionally, over the last five races here at Richmond Raceway, AD has four top 10s and a worst result of 22nd. On the short, flat tracks over the last two seasons he has finished 18th or better in six of the seven races.
Joey Logano Top 5 Finish (+110) – Let’s take a look at Joey Logano’s finishes on the short, flat tracks over the last two years, shall we? He finished 1st and 3rd at Phoenix in 2020, 4th at Loudon, and 3rd at Richmond. This season, Logano has finished 2nd at Phoenix, 3rd here at Richmond, and 4th at Loudon (after coming back from two laps down). Getting him at even money (or better) for a top 5 on Sunday is amazing value. There’s also value in betting Logano Top 3 Finish (+230) this weekend, which I already have added to my betting card as well.
Ross Chastain Top 20 Finish (-170) – I will note that I didn’t hit this top 20 bet anywhere near as hard as the first two that I’ve already talked about on this card, but it’s hard to think that Ross Chastain doesn’t come home inside the top 20 on Saturday night. His record on short, flat tracks is kind of shaky, but don’t forget that he was never in very good equipment up until this year (or when he was subbing for a hurt Ryan Newman). This year in his Ganassi car, Chastain has finished 19th at Phoenix, 15th here at Richmond, and 8th at New Hampshire.
PARLAY: Logano, Harvick, and Keselowski to All Finish Top 10 (+380) – Most of the parlays offered by these books are ridiculous or have awful odds, but this one is actually pretty solid all the way around. All three of these drivers finishing inside of the top 10 has happened in four of the last seven races on short, flat tracks, and was almost five of the last seven if Martin Truex, Jr. could’ve passed two more cars at Loudon after wrecking early. Even better, my algorithm has all three of these guys firmly inside the top 10 this week.
Even More Bets
The algorithm has Martin Truex, Jr., Denny Hamlin, and Joey Logano firmly placed as the top 3 drivers for Saturday night’s race at Richmond Raceway, and I completely agree with it. Therefore, I have no problem hammering those three with bets to cover the bases, especially with having the aforementioned +1500 on Logano. Additionally, you can never count out Brad Keselowski on a short, flat track, so I don’t mind sprinkling some bets on him as well.
Martin Truex, Jr. to Win (+550)
Martin Truex, Jr. Top 3 Finish (+180)
Denny Hamlin to Win (+700)
Denny Hamlin Top 3 Finish (+200)
Brad Keselowski to Win (+1200)
Brad Keselowski Top 5 Finish (+140)