Historically, Las Vegas has been one of the better races to begin the NASCAR season. Well, it can’t be any worse than the yawner we had last week, in my opinion. I hope a lot of people caught up on their sleep because they didn’t miss much. It seemed like the clean air out in front was the way to go, with not many passing the leader. Joey Logano never fell off quite like I thought he would, and Kyle Larson was pretty bad all day unlike I predicted. My picks aim to be better this week, so push your chips to the middle of the table and go all in at Sin City.
Sleeper Fantasy Picks for Las Vegas
Paul Menard – #27 Chevrolet
Does anybody know where Paul Menard finished last week at Atlanta besides his fantasy owners brave enough to start him? I think many were surprised with his 13th like I was. There was hardly anything mentioned about him all day. Las Vegas is another track that sets up well for Mr. Menard. He has 3 top 10 finishes here, including finishing 3rd last year. He will be on my Yahoo B team for sure, and, depending on his speed, most likely started. I will be interested to see how many handicap points the #27 Chevy will have in The Showcase, because if he is high it would be a steal for anyone.
Ryan Newman – #31 Chevrolet
Ryan Newman is a very under-rated fantasy NASCAR driver. He has been very consistent finisher over the past season, including a 10th-place finish last week. He has been upfront in Vegas when the checkered flag waved many times over the years. Newman had consecutive finishes in the top 5 in 2011 and 12. He was running in the top 15 for most of the race in 2013 before his engine gave out. Last year, he qualified 10th and brought the #31 home with a 7th place finish. I feel very good that Newman has at least a top 10 this week, and pushing towards the top 5.
Bust Fantasy Picks for Las Vegas
Jeff Gordon – #24 Chevrolet
Let me clarify my busts post. Am I saying that Newman and Menard are better choices every week than Jeff Gordon and Denny Hamlin? Absolutely not. My job is to identify who I do/dont think will run well at a particular track based on driver expectations. I could tell you that David Gilliland and Landon Cassill are busts, but who doesn’t know that already? Also, no one is looking to put those two on their teams unless extremely desperate from an allocation stand point on Yahoo!. When you are looking to roster Gordon, whether it be on the A group in Yahoo, The Showcase game on this site, or any other fantasy NASCAR game, you expect a top 5 or better. The stats show me that he is less likely to provide that result this week at Vegas. In 17 career races at the 1.5 mile tri-oval, the #24 Chevrolet has an average finish of 15th. His lone win came all the way back in 2001. The last four finishes here have been 36th, 12th, 25th, and a 9th place finish last year. Even though he is bound for a good finish this week after his first two terrible finishes this year, I will be leaving Jeff Gordon in the garage, and I recommend you do as well.
Denny Hamlin – #11 Toyota
The other driver I am fading this week is Mr. Denny Hamlin. On the surface, four finishes in the top 10 in 9 career races sounds attractive right? When I dove a little deeper into the numbers I saw reason for caution. The one that popped out to me the most like a clown in a jack-in-the-box was that he has only led 4 laps here in his career. Ouch. Hamlin’s average start of 21st could be a big cause of that and not being able to work his way up through the field here. The last stat that does him in for me here is in the last 6 races at Las Vegas the #11 has an average finish of almost 16. I hope you can find better choices this week, I know I will for sure.
There you have it folks, my sleeper and bust picks for Las Vegas have been made. Any questions/comments are welcomed. Once again remember: If these picks help your fantasy team on Sunday, you’re welcome. If not, you are the one who hits the submit button to lock in your fantasy teams, not me. Good luck to everyone who rolls the dice the weekend at Sin CIty and scores big. LET’S GET IT!!
Scott Boyle is a guest blogger at Fantasy Racing Online and an avid player in the fantasy NASCAR community.
