Let’s line ’em up and do it again! We just had a pretty wild race at Texas Motor Speedway last weekend, and now we’re off to Kansas Speedway for the Hollywood Casino 400 on Sunday afternoon (hopefully). Both of these tracks are “low-wear” 1.5-mile venues, so we’re going to be targeting a lot of the same drivers this week as we were at Texas. One thing to note is that last weekend’s race ended up being a “punt week” and I don’t see that happening this weekend with how the DraftKings driver pricing is.

Weather may play a factor in Sunday’s race at Kansas, but no matter when the Hollywood Casino 400 gets started, it shouldn’t change expectations much. If this ends up being a night race, I will note that that tends to favor the Joe Gibbs Racing Toyotas a little bit. My FanDuel article for this weekend’s race can be viewed by clicking here, and since there’s so much crossover between these two DFS sites, I always recommend checking that out. Now let’s goooo!!!!

Make sure you check out the Algorithm Predicted Finishing Order for this race by clicking here!

Speed Report & Loop Data Driver Averages

We’re focusing on “low-wear” 1.5-mile tracks this weekend yet again. That means that, in addition to looking at last week’s race at Texas, we’re looking back at both Vegas races, the first Kansas race of the season, and the Charlotte race. Included in the data tables below is also the 2020 data from “low wear” 1.5-mile tracks. Also included is the data from this year under the 550hp package, as we’re running that again this weekend. Statistics included in the tables below are:

• Starts
• Finish
• ARP = average running position
• DR = driver rating
• FL = fastest laps (total)
• LL = laps led (total)
• T15 = laps ran inside top 15 (total)
• Total Laps = laps completed (total)

2021 Driver Averages At “Low Wear” 1.5-Mile Tracks

2021 Driver Averages w/ 550hp Package

2020 Driver Averages At “Low Wear” 1.5-Mile Tracks

DraftKings Strategy & Dominators for Kansas 2

• Just like last week at Texas, the race here at Kansas this weekend is on a “low-wear” 1.5-mile track. This time, though, we’re looking at a scheduled distance of 400 miles instead of 500, or 267 laps in total. We could see a couple of dominators, or Kyle Larson could dominate the whole thing like he did last week.
• You should expect a lot of green flag racing this weekend. I’m estimating 230 of the 267 laps will be ran under green, which means 103.5 DraftKings FPTS for fastest laps. For laps led this week, the math on 267 laps is 66.75 DraftKings FPTS.
• NASCAR is running the 550hp package this weekend. Other tracks where this package has been ran this season are: Homestead, both Las Vegas races, both Atlanta races, the first race here at Kansas, Charlotte, both Pocono races, Michigan, and last week’s Texas race.
• Comparable tracks ran at this season would be the Charlotte, Texas, and Las Vegas. The tire combination Goodyear is bringing this weekend is the same from the first Kansas race. This same left-side tire was used in the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte as well as at Nashville, while the right-side tire was used in both Las Vegas races, the Michigan race, and Texas last week.

Dominators

These are the potential dominators for this weekend’s race at Kansas, and are listed in the order of likelihood according to my projections:

• Kyle Larson
• Kyle Busch
• Denny Hamlin
• Chase Elliott
• Ryan Blaney
• William Byron

Some “surprise” dominators that could happen on Sunday include: Brad Keselowski and Tyler Reddick.

Driver-by-Driver Breakdown Video

Now for the video breakdown! Be sure to go here and subscribe to my YouTube channel if you haven’t already.

Optimal Lineup According to Jordan’s Projections

The optimal DraftKings lineup for Kansas on Sunday according to my Projections is:

• Kyle Larson
• William Byron
• Ryan Blaney
• Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.
• Chris Buescher
• Ryan Preece

Confidence Rating = 7.1/10. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the optimal build end up something like this on Sunday–three “top tier” drivers and then three drivers priced at $7,000 or below. With this particular lineup, I think you’re going to need Ryan Blaney to lead a decent chunk of the race considering he’s starting 2nd. It’s definitely risky to take both front row starters, but it’s not impossible to work out. Personally, I’d probably go with Erik Jones over Ryan Preece with that lineup above. Additionally, one alternate lineup that also projects high this week is: Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott, William Byron, Matt DiBenedetto, Chris Buescher, and Ryan Preece.

GPP / Tournament Picks

Kyle Busch ($10,700) – Both Joe Gibbs Racing Toyotas of Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin ($11,000) should be considered strong tournament plays this weekend on DraftKings. After last week’s under-pricing of both drivers, DraftKings actually priced Rowdy and Hamlin in the range of where it’s kind of difficult to fit them into a lineup and feel great about it (with Larson in it anyway). As far as Kyle Busch goes, he’s finished 3rd or better in four of the five “low-wear” 1.5-mile track races this season and has the 3rd-most fastest laps at this track type in 2021 behind Kyle Larson and William Byron. He won here at Kansas back in May and has ended up inside the top 5 in nine of the last thirteen races at this track.

Ryan Blaney ($9,300) – It goes against conventional DFS wisdom to play both front row starters–especially at a 1.5-mile track–but with how Ryan Blaney is priced for Sunday’s Hollywood Casino 400, it could definitely work out. This season on this track type, Ryan Blaney has posted between 10 and 22 fastest laps in all five races, while finishing 6th or better in three of the five as well. Here at Kansas, Blaney typically races very well (he has finished 4th or better in 11 of the last 18 Stages) but hasn’t had a top 5 finish in the full race here since back in 2017. There’s a good chance that that changes this weekend, though.

Tyler Reddick ($8,400) – The #8 Richard Childress Racing team is bringing fast cars to the race track week after week right now, and there’s no doubt that Reddick is going to have a very strong car to work with here on Sunday at Kansas. This year on the “low-wear” 1.5-mile tracks, Reddick has finished 9th or better in four of the five races while also posting between 12 and 20 fastest laps in four of the five as well. With a starting position of 12th and a DraftKings salary of only $8,400, Reddick can easily make it into the optimal lineup on Sunday at Kansas.

Stacking Dennys Podcast with Jordan & RotoDoc

Cash Core Drivers

Kyle Larson ($11,700) – I’m not sure this one even needs an explanation, but here’s a quick recap of how Kyle Larson has performed on the “low-wear” 1.5-mile tracks this season: three wins in five races, an average running position of 3.1, over 900 laps led, and a total of 340 fastest laps. To compare those last two numbers, 2nd-best in those categories have 196 (laps led) and 177 (fastest laps). Larson is on the pole for Sunday’s Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas and is a must-have in cash games, and really with any lineup you’re building. The 80.37 projected FPTS for Larson on Sunday is ultra conservative.

William Byron ($9,500) – Thanks to him being eliminated from Championship contention in the last round of the Playoffs, we now get William Byron starting outside of the top 8 for the three races in this round, and when you pair his 9th-place starting spot with the fact that he could actually challenge for the win here on Sunday, getting Byron at $9,500 on DraftKings is a steal. This year on the “low-wear” 1.5-mile tracks, Willy B has posted an average of 35.4 fastest laps per race, and he’s coming off of a Texas race where he ended up with 57 fastest laps and a 2nd-place finish.

Chris Buescher ($6,300) – When Chris Buescher doesn’t run into issues on race day at a “low-wear” 1.5-mile track, he’s a legitimate top 15 contender. He finished 8th here at Kansas back in May, was 7th at Charlotte, and finished 14th in the first Las Vegas race this year. Last week at Texas, Buescher got caught up in a late wreck and ended up with a DNF but still finished 21st. His average running position in that race was 15.0. In the 550hp package this year, Buescher has an average finish of 15.6 and only one result worse than 21st, which is where he will start on Sunday here at Kansas. This is a mis-price by DraftKings and makes Buescher an incredible DFS value.

Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas DraftKings Driver Projections

The following chart takes into account the very basics: the starting position and the projected finish of each driver. The projected finishes are averaged from six different ranking systems. Also factored in are projected laps led and fastest laps for each driver. You can click the headers below to sort the chart by that attribute. By default it is sorted by average projected FPTS.