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Richmond 2 Slingshot NASCAR Fantasy Picks (Federated Auto Parts 400)

By
Jordan McAbee
-
Brad Keselowski at Michigan International Speedway
Photo Credit: Sean Gardner/Getty Images

After a wild race at Darlington to kick off the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs, we’re off to Richmond Raceway this weekend for some Saturday night action with the Federated Auto Parts 400. We’ve already raced here at Richmond once this season, and it was the Hamlin/Truex show until Alex Bowman was able to steal the win late. Races here at Richmond typically aren’t too crazy, as I explained and mentioned a few times in the video this week.

As far as track type, Richmond is a short, flat track that is most similar to Phoenix. You can also add New Hampshire into the mix when analyzing data. There are other flat tracks that some may also add in there–Nashville, Martinsville, Pocono–but the best tracks to use when analyzing data for this Richmond race are the three first mentioned. Also, NASCAR is rolling with the 750hp again package this weekend, so you can look at that data as well.

*Please note: the picks and suggestions below are my opinions and strategy for the Slingshot Fantasy Auto Contest. These are not meant to sway your thinking in any way, but rather give you insight into the drivers I am most likely to pick on race day.*

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Jordan’s Strategy Breakdown Video

(Hit Play Button To Watch & Click Here to Subscribe to My Channel on YouTube)

Slingshot Fantasy Auto Contest Picks for the Federated Auto Parts 400 at Richmond

The Safe

Martin Truex, Jr. ($12,200) – You could also throw Denny Hamlin ($12,400) in with this designation, but I’m going to talk about Martin Truex, Jr. because he starts one spot behind Hamlin on Saturday night. Both are exceptional at short, flat tracks, and both are great here at Richmond, too. As far as Truex specifically, he’s led 100+ laps in seven of the last nine Richmond races, has two wins in the last five, and hasn’t finished outside of the top 5 at this track since early in the 2018 season. He’s got an average finish of 6.0 on the comparable short, flat tracks this season with a win at Phoenix and a 5th here at Richmond in the first race. Don’t forget: this race is at night, and Truex always performs better under the lights (like he needs any boost).

Joey Logano ($11,100) – Let’s take a look at the last seven races on short, flat tracks and the results that Joey Logano has posted: 4th, 3rd, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 3rd, and 1st. Need I say more? Logano is elite on this track type, and here at Richmond specifically, he’s finished 4th or better six of the last eight races, while also leading 45+ laps in four of the last six. JoLo has also ended up 4th or better in six of the last eight Stages at this track. On Saturday night, Logano’s #22 Ford will roll off the starting grid from 6th, but he should be able to challenge for a solid top 3 finish, if not a win.

Matt DiBenedetto ($8,200) – Penske Racing is very good at short, flat tracks. And since Wood Brothers Racing is basically just an extension of Penske, that means Wood Brothers Racing is very good at short, flat tracks. Earlier this season, DiBenedetto was able to grab his first career top 10 finish here at Richmond with a 9th-place finish in the April race, and looking at this track type specifically in 2021, he has an average running position of 11.5 (which is 11th-best) and an average finish of 11.3 (which is 10th-best). Even going back and including the four short, flat track races in 2020, Matty D has an average running position of 11.9 (10th-best) and an average finish of 11.1 (also 10th-best). He starts 28th on Saturday night. Hello place differential points!

The Risky

Brad Keselowski ($11,000) – This pick is under the “Risky” category, but it really shouldn’t be. I just have concerns with how this #2 team is running and the downturn we’ve seen as the season has progressed. With that being said, like his Penske teammates, Brad Keselowski is really, really good at the short, flat tracks. In the seven races on them since the start of 2020, BK has the 2nd-best average finish (5.1) and the best average running position (4.8). This year on them, he has the 2nd-best average running position (6.2), but his 14th-place finish here in the first Richmond races brings his average finish down a bit. Kez starts 7th on Saturday night and should be able to compete for a top 5 finish if everything goes smoothly.

Christopher Bell ($9,500) – It’s Christopher Bell, so it’s always going to be a risky NASCAR Fantasy pick, but when you look at the short, flat tracks this season, it’s not as risky as you might think; Bell finished 9th at Phoenix earlier this year, 4th here at Richmond back in April, and then 2nd at New Hampshire in July. That’s pretty solid. If you want to throw in Martinsville and Nashville, the #20 Toyota came home 7th at “The Paperclip” and 9th in the “Music City.” On Saturday night, Bell will start from 10th but potential to move up if he can have a mistake-free race.

Aric Almirola ($8,500) – This season it’s been quite rare for Aric Almirola to be a viable option in Fantasy NASCAR, but the short, flat tracks have been his shining spot for the last two years. This season, Almirola won at New Hampshire, finished 6th here at Richmond, and came home 11th at Phoenix, and looking back at las season, he ended up 8th and 13th in the two Phoenix races along with posting finishes of 7th at New Hampshire and 8th here at Richmond. Almirola will start from 9th here on Saturday night, so that definitely makes him a risky pick in the Slingshot Fantasy Auto Contest, but if he can get some Stage points along with a top 10 finish, that’ll be a solid score for a driver priced at $8,500 in this game.

The Winner

“Race Winner” Pick = Martin Truex, Jr. – If you remember back to the pre-Darlington podcast episode of Stacking Dennys, I said that Denny Hamlin was going to win Darlington and then Martin Truex, Jr. was going to win Richmond. The first part of that statement was true, now we just need Truex to bring home another victory here on Saturday night. He’s the favorite according to sportsbooks as well as my algorithm this weekend. Rolling with the #19 Toyota.

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FanDuel NASCAR Driver Projections & Picks for Richmond 2 (Federated Auto Parts 400)

By
Jordan McAbee
-
Martin Truex, Jr. and Brad Keselowski racing side-by-side at Kansas
Photo Credit: Jamie Squire | Getty Images

We’re off to Richmond Raceway on Saturday night for the Federated Auto Parts 400. Richmond is a 0.75-mile flat track that compares very well to Phoenix as well as New Hampshire. The good news about these shorter, flat tracks is that they are super predictable; we know who the good drivers are on this track type, and very rarely do we see surprises. Kyle Larson is on the pole for Saturday night’s race and you can click here to see the full starting lineup. Also, you can click here to see the Algorithm Predicted Finishing Order for Saturday night. Now let’s get to the FanDuel projections!

Kyle Larson has to start from the rear tonight but will still be scored from the 1st starting spot. I would recommend not playing him if you were going to.

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Optimal Lineup According to Jordan’s Projections

The optimal FanDuel lineup for Richmond Saturday night according to my Projections is:

  • Denny Hamlin
  • Joey Logano
  • Chase Elliott
  • Matt DiBenedetto
  • Erik Jones

Confidence Rating = 7.5/10. This is a very solid lineup build if Denny Hamlin is the main dominator on Saturday night. If Truex gets up there and leads the most laps, then it won’t be as solid, but good news: there’s enough cap leftover to switch out Hamlin for Truex with this lineup. You could also switch out Chase Elliott for Kevin Harvick in the top projected lineup, as they’re both very close in my projections. Looking at the highest projected lineup that includes both Hamlin and Truex, though, it actually includes a punt: JJ Yeley, plus Hamlin, Truex, Logano, and DiBenedetto…

FanDuel “Safe” DFS Picks for Richmond 2 (Cash Lineups)

Joey Logano Charlotte Garage Fantasy NASCAR
Photo Credit: Streeter Lecka/Getty Images

Joey Logano ($12,500) – Joey Logano doesn’t have the dominating upside of Denny Hamlin and Martin Truex, Jr. this weekend, but he can still contend for the win and should lead some laps along the way on Saturday night as well. Looking at the last seven short, flat track races, Logano has led 40+ laps in five of them, including 49 laps led here at Richmond in the first race this season. Now for the even better numbers. Over that same seven-race span, Joey Logano hasn’t finished worse than 4th. No, that’s not a typo. Zero finishes worse than 4th, and that includes the New Hampshire race this season when he was two laps down and had to fight all race to get back on the lead lap. Simply put, Logano is elite on this track type, and at $12,500 on FanDuel, he’s an extremely safe fantasy option on Saturday night.

Matt DiBenedetto ($7,800) – While I do think Austin Dillon ($8,500) has similar upside to DiBenedetto this weekend, the $700 price discount is huge with pricing the way it is this weekend (if you’re picking between the two that is). DiBenedetto is very strong on the shorter, flat tracks, and he will start back in 28th on Saturday night. What more could you ask for? On the short, flat tracks in 2021, Matty D has the 11th-best average running position (11.5) and the 10th-best average finish (11.3), and when you include the 2020 races as well, his average running position goes to 10th-best (11.9) while his average finish is also 10th-best (11.1). At worst, DiBenedetto is a mid-teens driver here at Richmond on Saturday night.

FanDuel “Risky” DFS Picks for Richmond 2 (Tournament Lineups)

Brad Keselowski and Christopher Bell racing at Kentucky Speedway 2020
Photo Credit: Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images

Brad Keselowski ($11,500) – With the way he’s ran during this 2021 season, Brad Keselowski has left a bad taste in many people’s mouths. And when it comes to FanDuel this weekend, Keselowski being priced just under always-popular Kyle Larson, and above place differential plays of Chase Elliott, Christopher Bell, William Byron, and others, there’s a good chance that BK goes under-owned here. Don’t forget, though: short, flat tracks are Penske’s best track type, and Keselowski always gets to the front at one point or another at them. Looking at the seven races at short, flat tracks since the beginning of 2020, Brad has led 16+ laps in every single race, and 50+ laps in four of the seven. He also has the best average running position (4.8) and the 2nd-best average finish (5.1) on this track type over the last two years.

Christopher Bell ($10,000) – FanDuel priced up Christopher Bell this week to $10,000 but if we don’t see Denny Hamlin and Martin Truex, Jr. split this race from a dominator perspective, then Bell’s salary can definitely work in a lineup on Saturday night. Here’s what you need to know about Christopher Bell this weekend: Joe Gibbs Racing is really good at Richmond Raceway, and Christopher Bell is really good at short, flat tracks. This year, CBell has finished 9th, 4th, and 2nd on this track type, and his average running position of 7.6 ranks 5th-best in the series. This #20 Toyota has legitimate top 5 finishing position on Saturday night.

FanDuel Driver Projections for the Federated Auto Parts 400 at Richmond Raceway

The following chart takes into account the very basics: the starting position and the projected finish of each driver. The projected finishes are averaged from six different ranking systems. Also factored in are projected laps led for each driver. You can click the headers below to sort the chart by that attribute. By default it is sorted by average projected FPTS.

DriverFanDuel SalaryAvg Proj PtsStarting PositionCeiling Proj PtsDollar Per Pt
Denny Hamlin$13,50089.672104.00$151
Martin Truex Jr.$14,00089.32397.70$157
Joey Logano$12,50087.07694.60$144
Brad Keselowski$11,50080.20791.40$143
Chase Elliott$10,50078.001382.50$135
Kevin Harvick$11,00077.65583.60$142
Kyle Busch$13,00075.751594.30$172
William Byron$9,80072.501481.60$135
Matt DiBenedetto$7,80072.402880.00$108
Kyle Larson$12,00071.47191.50$168
Aric Almirola$9,20071.05979.50$129
Christopher Bell$10,00071.001083.50$141
Alex Bowman$9,70069.751277.50$139
Austin Dillon$8,50069.401978.50$122
Ryan Blaney$9,50069.37884.10$137
Kurt Busch$9,00066.80475.50$135
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.$7,00066.402370.00$105
Ross Chastain$8,30066.151776.00$125
Tyler Reddick$8,00066.001173.50$121
Bubba Wallace$6,00061.052764.50$98
Erik Jones$5,00060.953165.00$82
Cole Custer$7,50060.052169.00$125
Ryan Newman$5,50059.802470.50$92
Daniel Suarez$6,30059.302266.50$106
Chase Briscoe$5,80058.202661.00$100
Chris Buescher$6,50055.451860.00$117
Corey LaJoie$4,00053.502563.50$75
Ryan Preece$4,50051.352062.50$88
J.J. Yeley$2,00050.903754.50$39
Anthony Alfredo$3,50050.753058.50$69
Justin Haley$3,50050.252955.00$70
Michael McDowell$5,00049.601662.00$101
B.J. McLeod$2,50048.403250.50$52
Cody Ware$2,50046.803651.00$53
Quin Houff$3,00046.553549.00$64
Josh Bilicki$3,00044.203348.00$68
Joey Gase$2,00042.753447.00$47
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Let’s Get Rich at Richmond – Stacking Dennys NASCAR Podcast

By
Jordan McAbee
-
Aric Almirola leading at Pocono over Logano, Blaney, Truex, Elliott, DiBenedetto
Photo Credit: Patrick Smith | Getty Images

After a wild race at Darlington to kick off the Playoffs, the NASCAR Cup Series is on to RIchmond Raceway and Jordan McAbee and Nick Giffen (a.k.a. “RotoDoc”) are here to break down Saturday night’s race, along with overall betting strategies they both use to make money every year. Other topics discussed:

  • 0:55 – Was Darlington actually a good race?
  • 22:40 – Was the Kyle Busch penalty the right call?
  • 41:20 – Betting Strategy discussion for optimal cards
  • 1:03:45 – Ryan Blaney sucks at Richmond
  • 1:15:15 – Richmond Preview. We know who is good at this race track. Don’t overthink it.

You can listen below by using that embedded player or listen on:

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NASCAR Betting: Get A 100% Profit Boost *Risk Free* for Richmond (TODAY ONLY)

By
Jordan McAbee
-
Photo Credit: Robert Laberge/NASCAR via Getty Images

With sports betting becoming legalized in more and more states throughout the country, this is causing a lot of sportsbooks to up their marketing game significantly, which often creates some really good opportunities for bettors if you can line things up correctly.

Case in point this weekend: two promotions being offered by Caesars Sportsbook.

For the NFL season opener on Thursday night, Caesars is offering essentially a “double your money” bet if the Buccaneers score in the game. It’s not very likely that the defending Super Bowl champions get shut out on opening night, so you can assume that this is going to win. Max bet for this is $50, so you’ll turn $50 into $100.

Now, *today only*, Caesars is offering a 100% profit boost on any bet. This should be music to NASCAR bettors’ ears, as you can now get great odds on a driver to win at Richmond on Saturday night, a track that is relatively predictable compared to the rest of the schedule. The max bet for this promotion is also $50.

Essentially what you’re looking at here is this: you deposit $100, put $50 on the Buccaneers promotion, and then put the other $50 on your favorite NASCAR bet using the 100% profit boost (my favorite is boosting Joey Logano to +1500 to win).

So unless the Bucs get shut out on Thursday night, you’re guaranteed to at least break even, with huge upside possible with the 100% profit boost on the race.

This is a no-brainer.

How To Take Advantage Of This

  1. Log in to your Caesars Sportsbook account (or create one if you need to) and deposit $100.
  2. Place a $50 bet on the Buccaneers promotion to double your money if they score in the game.
  3. Place the other $50 on the driver you think is going to win on Saturday night at Richmond. My algorithm says it’s going to be between Martin Truex, Jr., Denny Hamlin, and Joey Logano. I put my bet on Logano boosted to +1500 because Caesars has Truex and Hamlin shorter than most other books. I’ll be betting those two elsewhere.
  4. Collect the $100 you deposited once the Bucs score on Thursday Night Football.
  5. Watch the race on Saturday night and root for the driver you bet on. Hopefully he wins!

Of course, you can always use that profit boost on any bet you’d like–it doesn’t have to be an outright winner. But to get Joey Logano at 15-to-1 at his best track type, and one of his best tracks, is a no-brainer for me.

Good luck, and remember to always gamble responsibly! And also: this isn’t 100% risk free, but it’s as close as you can get in my opinion.

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Starting Lineup for Richmond 2 (Federated Auto Parts 400)

By
Jordan McAbee
-
Kyle Larson Dover Fantasy NASCAR DraftKings
Photo Credit: Brian Lawdermilk/Getty Images

Race #2 of the first Round of the Playoffs gets underway on Saturday night at Richmond Raceway, and it will be Kyle Larson leading the field to the green with Denny Hamlin alongside. The NASCAR Cup Series has already raced here at Richmond once this season, with Denny Hamlin and Martin Truex, Jr. dominating for most of the day but then Alex Bowman stealing the win late with a great pit stop and getting that much coveted track position.

Federated Auto Parts 400 at Richmond Starting Lineup

  1. Kyle Larson
  2. Denny Hamlin
  3. Martin Truex, Jr.
  4. Kurt Busch
  5. Kevin Harvick
  6. Joey Logano
  7. Brad Keselowski
  8. Ryan Blaney
  9. Aric Almirola
  10. Christopher Bell
  11. Tyler Reddick
  12. Alex Bowman
  13. Chase Elliott
  14. William Byron
  15. Kyle Busch
  16. Michael McDowell
  17. Ross Chastain
  18. Chris Buescher
  19. Austin Dillon
  20. Ryan Preece
  21. Cole Custer
  22. Daniel Suarez
  23. Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.
  24. Ryan Newman
  25. Corey LaJoie
  26. Chase Briscoe
  27. Bubba Wallace
  28. Matt DiBenedetto
  29. Justin Haley
  30. Anthony Alfredo
  31. Erik Jones
  32. BJ McLeod
  33. Josh Bilicki
  34. Joey Gase
  35. Quin Houff
  36. Garrett Smithley
  37. JJ Yeley

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